Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When I see a change this big it makes me think anything is possible. The h5 change is pretty big for a 6 hour model difference. I compared 12z around the 114-132 range. Two things stood out. The big ull to the NE is deeper and slower to move away and the shortwave diving down west of Hudson bay runs out in front of the shortwave coming into the west coast. This suppresses and flattens heights in between two major features on both sides of NA. The only real negative is the shortwave coming into the west is slowed down compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Kind of off-topic, but if IIRC the Presidents Day storm had a weak low off the Delmarva develop unexpectedly, causing winds from the north that made the damming last longer than expected. It wasn't that the models couldn't pick up on the strength of the cold air. The "wedge always last longer than modeled" ism seems something that is eager to be broken, especially when the cold air is shallow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I'm not a huge fan of ice, but I really don't like the thump of snow and then warm up and drip-drip. Might as well not snow as whatever you get is gone so quick. I remember a few years ago where we got a heavy thump overnight in the metro areas of about a foot or so and then it all disappeared by the end of the day while places up in Carroll ended up with almost two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I compared 12z around the 114-132 range. Two things stood out. The big ull to the NE is deeper and slower to move away and the shortwave diving down west of Hudson bay runs out in front of the shortwave coming into the west coast. This suppresses and flattens heights in between two major features on both sides of NA. The only real negative is the shortwave coming into the west is slowed down compared to 12z. I think that slowdown is caused by the flattening you describe. Sharpened the trough in the west quite a bit. Edit: slowing the low is what I was referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Kind of off-topic, but if IIRC the Presidents Day storm had a weak low off the Delmarva develop unexpectedly, causing winds from the north that made the damming last longer than expected. It wasn't that the models couldn't pick up on the strength of the cold air. The "wedge always last longer than modeled" ism seems something that is eager to be broken, especially when the cold air is shallow at the surface. Might be eager to be broken but physics wins. Cold air is dense and heavy, tough to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 When does para gfs run? Does para run for 18z?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, North Balti Zen said: When does para gfs run? Does para run for 18z? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It runs. Last night it was late when it ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Para usually comes out shortly before the next op. I randomly check so have no idea if it's consistent with what time. I doubt it will be out before 830 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Gefs very supportive of the slower evolution. Good precip not really arriving until after 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs very supportive of the slower evolution. Good precip not really arriving until after 12z Sat. So slower would mean what, precip-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs very supportive of the slower evolution. Good precip not really arriving until after 12z Sat. Compare the 18z run to 12z. Big changes. Now, if you want to see really big changes, look at Wed morning. There are about 6 with a low off Hatteras. Close enough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Compare the 18z run to 12z. Big changes. Now, if you want to see really big changes, look at Wed morning. There are about 6 with a low off Hatteras. Close enough to watch. NAM trying hard to join the group of 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It has been mentioned, but man, Thursday evening looks cold. 00z GFS has DCA at 16 degrees with winds gusting in the 30s at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 according to 06z GFS we're in for a period of light snow wed morn before rush hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nice 6z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Couple close calls this week. Weekend storm still with a little frozen to start per the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 how torched for the holiday we thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's pretty amazing how we've lost any and all semblance of blocking in the Atlantic, and it's nonexistent looking out through the end of the month. I suppose it shouldn't be shocking, though. Not worth even analyzing what the ops show at the surface more than a few days out with this upper-level setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: It's pretty amazing how we've lost any and all semblance of blocking in the Atlantic, and it's nonexistent looking out through the end of the month. I suppose it shouldn't be shocking, though. Not worth even analyzing what the ops show at the surface more than a few days out with this upper-level setup. NA blocking is an urban myth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: NA blocking is an urban myth We will have sightings of unicorns before a -AO/NAO makes an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, H2O said: We will have sightings of unicorns before a -AO/NAO makes an appearance. Speaking of NAOs and unicorns..maybe that Scandinavian ridge...nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: NA blocking is an urban myth thank you for that, probably very true, after reading here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Maybe we need a 2+/- week reshuffle of the pattern. There does seem to be a propensity for dominant ridging to appear and move poleward so far this season.....As CAPE just noted, if that scan ridge starts a poleward move on the guidance just like the Aleutian ridge did....hey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nice euro run. Backed up pretty much by the ensembles as well. Good thing is, all we have to do is wait a couple of days and we'll get a completely different look. I still don't think we have a good idea of what the weekend is going to be, but it sure looks drier now than it did a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The HP for the weekend event is jumping around so much. No way to know what p-type will fall until that thing finds a place and stays there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, H2O said: The HP for the weekend event is jumping around so much. No way to know what p-type will fall until that thing finds a place and stays there for a bit. I,m more interested in xmas week than this weekend, and yes you make a very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm only interested in Wed. I'll be interested in the weekend on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nice euro run. Backed up pretty much by the ensembles as well. Good thing is, all we have to do is wait a couple of days and we'll get a completely different look. I still don't think we have a good idea of what the weekend is going to be, but it sure looks drier now than it did a couple of days ago. What's it got for Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I may be wrong, but the 06z GEFS has some members showing some decent frozen precip on the backend this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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