WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Big changes at h5 but little change at the surface. Puzzles me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I can't see the GFS anywhere yet. What about midweek? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nothing CMC though. woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 CMC though. woah I truly wonder about the gfs on this run. probably nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 lol 00z GGEM has CAD so much that even NE GA is icy at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, yoda said: lol 00z GGEM has CAD so much that even NE GA is icy at 150 The high pressure movement and location is classic on cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Ji said: The high pressure movement and location is classic on cmc Yup... 4-8 inches for most while mappy cleans up near a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Didnt see the 18z para get mentioned. Solid hit. Low tracks south of Iowa with decent snow and ice before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Didnt see the 18z para get mentioned. Solid hit. Low tracks south of Iowa with decent snow and ice before the flip. More ice than snow... prob 4" max looking at TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Who's ready for single-digit/lower 10s wind chills on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Hell even I'll bite on what the CMC is showing. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hell even I'll bite on what the CMC is showing. Nice. Didn't you like the 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, yoda said: Didn't you like the 12z EURO? Needs more ice. Ice storms bust low 9/9/10 times. We are overdue for a region wide crippling ice storm...I mean 3-5 day power outage level ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 What day are we lookin' at for next weekend? A Friday-Saturday thing or Saturday-Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What day are we lookin' at for next weekend? A Friday-Saturday thing or Saturday-Sunday? Friday night into Sat night per 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Wxbell only has h5 out to hour 162 and it looks deeper and colder. Can't get surface yet. How much snow ? Looks like Euro for sure 00z GFS? 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 where are people seeing the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: where are people seeing the GFS? I've got the entire run text output on accuwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: where are people seeing the GFS? TT and WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GFS is about 10 minutes of ZR before the surface flips. GGEM drops close to an inch of liquid and never warms the surface above freezing. 6z Sunday temps: GFS: 51 GGEM: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 00z EURO has nothing for Wed evening/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Hard to tell until the weatherbell panels come in, but per trop tidbits it looks like the Euro took a step toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, hosj III said: Hard to tell until the weatherbell panels come in, but per trop tidbits it looks like the Euro took a step toward the GFS. For which? Wednesday or Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: For which? Wednesday or Saturday? Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 00z EURO is lulz... major rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 00z EURO is lulz... major rainstormAt least we get some courtesy snow beforehand to wash away with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: At least we get some courtesy snow beforehand to wash away with it 1-2 inches of snow to rain is meh to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1-2 inches of snow to rain is meh to meYeah definitely a huge step back. 12z tomorrow will be YUGE.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 -PNA will do that to you every time. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Biggest take away I have after looking over the 500's on the 00Z runs is that the axis of the trough as it drives down into the US will be the key to our weekend storm. Simply put, the sharper the positive tilt the more the heights are allowed to build in front of the storm. Looking at the GEFS, the worst solution for wintry weather, we have the strongest positive tilt of the 3 models as the trough is entering the US at 120 hrs. The axis tilt can basically be followed by looking at the anomalies from north to south. When looking 2 days later, hour 168, you can see that we still have a strong positive tilt that leaves the base of the trough back in California. This allows heights to build substantially bringing a strong southerly flow and the warm temps with it. Now when we look at the EPS, which is the middle of the road solution, we see that the positive trough axis is not as extreme as the GEFS solution coming down into the US thus when we look 2 days later we see that there is still a moderate positive tilt that but the base of the trough has progressed more easterly then the GEFS which does not allow the heights to build as much in front of our system. The southerly flow is not as strong and we don't see near the warm temps that the GEFS advertises. The best solution of the three models. the CMC, has the least extreme positive tilt of the three and is already placing the base of the trough into the southwest at hour 120. Looking 2 days later we now see that we have a neutral tilt with the trough and its base located just west of the Mississippi. This solution never really allows the heights to build into our region which damps down the southerly flow. Thus bringing us the coldest solution of the 3 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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