WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Per EPS, looking at h5 heights and 850 mb temps, looks quite mild days 11-15. Where do you find h5 heights on eps? Temp anomaly maps suggest we are normal to below until day 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where do you find h5 heights on eps? Temp anomaly maps suggest we are normal to below until day 14 Under Easy Navigation- has both heights and anomalies. 850 0c line retreats north of us after day 11. I dont pay much attention to surface temps at long leads on the mean, but even there we go normal/above normal after day 12. Not a torch by any means. Probably would be mid 40s to low 50s if it were correct. eta- on the 850 temps- 0c line does get north of us on the mean, but not by much. I was looking at the Control run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looking at a 12 UT Saturday Euro skew-T for the College Park area, I see a surface temperature of 25 degrees with the entire column below freezing; warmest temperature of 30 degrees at 700 hPa. 0.38" of precip has fallen by that time. By 18 UT surface is ~33 degrees but it warms above that to 37 degrees at 800 hPa then cools to just above freezing at 700 hPa. 0.46 " falls during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Right on cue, gfs looks less aggressive with cold and trough for mid week. Will be interested to see if trends better at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Tad better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The best part of the euro ens for next weekend is a strong similarity with the op irt progression on hp to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS has about 0.5-1 inch of snow wednesday evening it looks like. Better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Good sign on the 18z gfs at d5-6. Features are closer together, trough in the west further east, and ull to our NE stronger and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good sign on the 18z gfs at d5-6. Features are closer together, trough in the west further east, and ull to our NE stronger and further south. Gfs will still find a way to disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good sign on the 18z gfs at d5-6. Features are closer together, trough in the west further east, and ull to our NE stronger and further south. Hard to tell on IWM but trough looks deeper off the coast, holding high in place. Might be a step toward euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Gfs will still find a way to disappoint Still slower than the euro with the storm exiting the Rockies so it will. Better trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still slower than the euro with the storm exiting the Rockies so it will. Better trend though. And much further north. A low in Iowa ain't gonna cut it. Took a big step wrt the high. Next up, the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 That was not a good run except for Wednesday gave me a little hope for something to get the Christmas spirit going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Tad better With how erratic the GFS has been of late I will be more interested in what the ensembles show for the mid week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still slower than the euro with the storm exiting the Rockies so it will. Better trend though. Holds the CAD in a touch longer but I think that is a product of the low taking a more northwesterly track then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, showmethesnow said: Holds the CAD in a touch longer but I think that is a function of the low taking a more northwesterly track then anything else. High in the east is a good bit stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z para GFS looks a mostly like the 18z GFS, but a tad snowier on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z para GFS looks a mostly like the 18z GFS, but a tad snowier on the front. Does anybody other than TT have this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Does anybody other than TT have this model? There is a NCEP site with it but I can't remember it and couldn't find it yesterday in five minutes of hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There is a NCEP site with it but I can't remember it and couldn't find it yesterday in five minutes of hunting. Here ya go http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Per EPS, looking at h5 heights and 850 mb temps, looks quite mild days 11-15. That's what I was trying to allude to earlier for the 0z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: That's what I was trying to allude to earlier for the 0z eps. It remains to be seen. Long way off. Its not torchy, but the advertised pattern is definitely not the look you want if you are hoping for cold or snow around Xmas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: It remains to be seen. Long way off. Its not torchy, but the advertised pattern is definitely not the look you want if you are hoping for cold or snow around Xmas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 18z GEFS looks fairly average and similar to OP. Except e16, which is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, hosj III said: 18z GEFS looks fairly average and similar to OP. Except e16, which is on crack. Most of that snow isn't really snow lol, it's sleet and zr but still, let's lock that one up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Ok, who broke the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Yea, what is going on with the GFS model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 How are we supposed to B i t-ch about it, if we can not even see it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Looks to me as if gfs is headed toward a euro like solution for the weekend. It's an early call so could be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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