CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like the column is still good @ 12z sat. 850/700hpa temps are good. Surface very cold. Wish I had soundings. Regardless it would be a high impact event so nice to see. Its 20 deg F colder at 12z Sun than the 0z run. 40 instead of 60 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Warming comes in fast and strong aloft on Euro right around Sat morning. Surface hangs on longer until Sat night. Would be a helluva mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, surface is colder this run. Most of the area west of the fall line stays below freezing through 18z before the precip shuts off. Mappy, psu, and losetoa6 have no power by this time. That would be a pretty significant ice event after the snow for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Areas like CHO would get crushed this run. Hard to say what kind of mix but def a solid shot of snow/sleet/ice. That general area is the jackpot this run. Nice timing for the snow for us. Overnight dumpage and very cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Areas like CHO would get crushed this run. Hard to say what kind of mix but def a solid shot of snow/sleet/ice. That general area is the jackpot this run. Nice timing for the snow for us. Overnight dumpage and very cold temps. Would the ground being frozen play a role here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, surface is colder this run. Most of the area west of the fall line stays below freezing through 18z before the precip shuts off. Mappy, psu, and losetoa6 have no power by this time. It is a very cold run which isn't surprising given the high position. That's the biggest bone of contention between the two camps. I don't trust either model. I suspect the GFS is too warm but am not yet sold on the Euro. Lots of time to figure out which model camp is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like the column is still good @ 12z sat. 850/700hpa temps are good. Surface very cold. Wish I had soundings. Regardless it would be a high impact event so nice to see. 850's rise 11 degrees Celsius over my house in 6 hours Sat morning. 700 temps are near freezing by that time. Surface is frigid. You got a generator? I'm coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Euro looks awesome. A few mood flakes on Wednesday, followed by a couple cold days and a snow/ice storm on Saturday that doesn't change over until precip is pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, usedtobe said: It is a very cold run which isn't surprising given the high position. That's the biggest bone of contention between the two camps. I don't trust either model. I suspect the GFS is too warm but am not yet sold on the Euro. Lots of time to figure out which model camp is right. Big differences between the two leading in. Euro stalls the upper level low off NF and blocks the hp from going pretty much anywhere. If that feature is wrong then reality will be warmer to much warmer. Back to back runs with similar solutions at least leads some credence. GFS is jump on this one. I would say this particular run is the highest potential so we can only go downhill from here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 850's rise 11 degrees Celsius over my house in 6 hours Sat morning. 700 temps are near freezing by that time. Surface is frigid. You got a generator? I'm coming down. I have a great generator. Cable/internet/food always protected. I'm not drinking right now so BYOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, surface is colder this run. Most of the area west of the fall line stays below freezing through 18z before the precip shuts off. Mappy, psu, and losetoa6 have no power by this time. Actually if you look at the precip and temps side by side I think 90% of this run is snow. The temps spike as the precip ends. You can tell because if you look at there the precip was over on both frames then go back and look at the temps from that time the warm up is at the back edge of precip. It's a good old 6-8" thump ending as some sleet and freezing drizzle. The next wave is where ice could be a threat if the boundary hangs around but now we're way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a great generator. Cable/internet/food always protected. I'm not drinking right now so BYOB. I'll bring two. We can sit out back and drink when the gfs ends up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This is the key feature and what to watch. The gfs is weaker and further north so it allows HP to scoot right off the coast and warm us up Euro is much stronger/south and crawls the ULL so HP is locked right in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: This is the key feature and it what to watch. The gfs is weaker and further north so it allows HP to scoot right off the coast and warm us up Euro is much stronger/south and crawls the ULL so HP is locked right in: Good catch bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Good catch bob I compared to 0z. Euro trended stronger and better placement with this feature so that's slightly encouraging. Losing ground is a sucky trend. Odd that the GEFS members mostly looked like the op in some fashion or another. Not much support there at all for what the euro is serving up. Looks like another model war on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 For 7 days out that's a fairly small difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 The western trough on the GFS is quite a bit deeper also. Does that play a role in the Euro solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 So, even though we are 7 days out...IF anything comes out of this, what potential time frame are we talking here? (Got an event that evening!) I know that obviously trying to time a potential storm this far out is tricky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: CAD holding all the way down to northeast Georgia..Lol Saturday morning on euro . Reminds me of the 1994 ice storms. Of course that was colder and in January. Could get real ugly around here. Could be similar to 12/8/13 with more snow for the guys south of us. Once south of Baltimore there was a sharp cut off with that one This upcoming air mass will be stronger than the one 3 years ago so areas south could do well. This cold shot looks legit. High temps in the low to mid 20's on Thursday and Friday before the storm is very tough to do in mid December without precipitation falling. Very impressive cold for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 so we got the CMC/Euro vs GFS. Nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so we got the CMC/Euro vs GFS. Nervous. And looks like GFS won on tomorrows system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so we got the CMC/Euro vs GFS. Nervous. Now, looking at what has happened the last two winters with storms following very cold air masses...Doesn't the cold air Thurs. and Fri. make the Euro solution a bit more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, looking at what has happened the last two winters with storms following very cold air masses...Doesn't the cold air Thurs. and Fri. make the Euro solution a bit more likely? More about precip to me. Euro has a low next Sat morning in ne Arkansas which slides almost due east in the next 6 hours. GFS has the low in north central Missouri and slides it to northern Indiana. That's why the gfs precip is so paltry while we have the cold. Also, and more importantly, the Euro has a monster high sitting over New England the the gfs doesn't have. Bob referenced this earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: More about precip to me. Euro has a low next Sat morning in ne Arkansas which slides almost due east in the next 6 hours. GFS has the low in north central Missouri and slides it to northern Indiana. That's why the gfs precip is so paltry while we have the cold. Also, and more importantly, the Euro has a monster high sitting over New England the the gfs doesn't have. Bob referenced this earlier. Yeah. The major difference I see is the position of the HP. The Euro has it in NE. The GFS has it due East of OC during that same time frame. And we can see why with Bob's explanation above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Agree about next Thursday/ Friday .Low mid 20 highs with sunshine on December 15th would be very noteworthy for sure "IF " those temps verify. Couple days ago models had teens up our way for that time period- they backed off slightly. Btw...do you have the accumulations by chance from December 2013 storm? Pretty sure I recorder 7.5 inches with decent icing on top. that was on sunday. then we had a break on monday temps got near 40 before another 5.5 inchest fell early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Decent support for a light coating of snow midweek on the EPS. Nothing more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so we got the CMC/Euro vs GFS. Nervous. 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: And looks like GFS won on tomorrows system GFS is usually right when it screws us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Man, surface is colder this run. Most of the area west of the fall line stays below freezing through 18z before the precip shuts off. Mappy, psu, and losetoa6 have no power by this time. I said anniversary snow, not ice Could be similar to 12/8/13 with more snow for the guys south of us. Once south of Baltimore there was a sharp cut off with that one This upcoming air mass will be stronger than the one 3 years ago so areas south could do well. This cold shot looks legit. High temps in the low to mid 20's on Thursday and Friday before the storm is very tough to do in mid December without precipitation falling. Very impressive cold for so early in the season.Ohh, I could get down with 12/8/13 snow. Picked up 7.5" followed by some sleet/ice. Was a nice overachiever if I recall. LWX wasn't calling for 6+. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 EPS looks reasonably supportive of the op for next weekend. A few inches of snow, more NW, then ice, and then rain as surface temps finally warm. A quick glance of the ind members- looks like maybe 10 with big snow totals like the op. Most have a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Per EPS, looking at h5 heights and 850 mb temps, looks quite mild days 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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