mappy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'd be okay with an anniversary snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The big difference between the euro and gfs is how the hp is positioned and moves away. Euro has a strong high just north of us that slowly retreats NE. This not only enhances CAD but also doesn't allow a far west track. Gfs has the hp center basically overhead and it slides ENE. This allows stronger return flow eroding the cold and also a further west track with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: sleet/zr with the trailing low That's some pretty stout CAA with that high positioning and strength. Would be a nasty ice storm for NW of 95. Light to moderate precip falling into shallow sub freezing air. Great combo for accretion where it would be ZR. Still lots of scenarios on the board right now. Too volatile in this range for specifics, but its a given now that something frozen is likely given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The big difference between the euro and gfs is how the hp is positioned and moves away. Euro has a strong high just north of us that slowly retreats NE. This not only enhances CAD but also doesn't allow a far west track. Gfs has the hp center basically overhead and it slides ENE. This allows stronger return flow eroding the cold and also a further west track with the precip shield. Dont worry....euro will come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The way the GFS op has been jumpy around from run to run, even at fairly short leads, think we are better off putting more weight on the ensembles which have been marginally better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Ji said: Dont worry....euro will come around We should probably start the winter 17-18 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Forget the gfs. Im hugging the cmc. 1-3" wed and 4-8" topped with nasty ice next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Forget the gfs. Im hugging the cmc. 1-3" wed and 4-8" topped with nasty ice next weekend. Not going to look to hard with the CMC but by any chance did you get an idea what type of icing event we would be talking about after the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Another imortant piece of the puzzle for snow chances is how quick precip gets here. The cold will be retreating. That's almost a given. Ens mean precip panels show potential for a faster onset than the op run. Mean panels actually have almost .1 through most of the region by 0z Saturday and then .15 by 6z. That's fairly significant qpf on the means for the lead time and a good bit faster than the op run. Earlier onset the better in this case An earlier start time is a good bet. Warm air advection snows come in about 1-4 hours quicker than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Not going to look to hard with the CMC but by any chance did you get an idea what type of icing event we would be talking about after the snow? Very similar to the euro with timing and evolution. Navgem likes Wednesday also. CMC Navgem blend has never let us down right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The big difference between the euro and gfs is how the hp is positioned and moves away. Euro has a strong high just north of us that slowly retreats NE. This not only enhances CAD but also doesn't allow a far west track. Gfs has the hp center basically overhead and it slides ENE. This allows stronger return flow eroding the cold and also a further west track with the precip shield. Gfs is also ejecting the system through the Rockies much further north. The whole pattern is biased more towards trough west ridge east on the gfs vs the euro and the gefs for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Canadian still brings the goods, both for a good snow event midweek and a very good event next weekend. Weenie run lol. If Justin Berk can ride the Canadian for years, then we should all ride it too. Axe to head emoji. Lol. Anyone doing play by play for the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: If Justin Berk can ride the Canadian for years, then we should all ride it too. Axe to head emoji. Lol. Anyone doing play by play for the CRAS? Don't knock the cras we rode that horse to glory in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Very similar to the euro with timing and evolution. Navgem likes Wednesday also. CMC Navgem blend has never let us down right? Guess I will ride the CMC/Navgem combo for the Wed/thur storm. At least until I can't ride it anymore. Used to be that the old Euro/CMC combo were almost a sure bet. Wonder if we can count on it with the new and improved version of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Forget the gfs. Im hugging the cmc. 1-3" wed and 4-8" topped with nasty ice next weekend. The same cmc that gave us 1-3 for tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Gefs now hates next weekend. Lol. Bad suite all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This will be an important Euro run. If it starts to waiver then it will be not fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs now hates next weekend. Lol. Bad suite all around I don't think the eps last night looked all that favorable for a cold/snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Forget the gfs. Im hugging the cmc. 1-3" wed and 4-8" topped with nasty ice next weekend. And we all know the CMC is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I don't think the eps last night looked all that favorable for a cold/snowy pattern. There were two ttb 850 frames that had our region BN delta_t for hrs 120-144 between the two coc Ls. This image was as good as we could get and most of the rest of the run was AN delta_t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: There were two ttb 850 frames that had our region BN delta_t for hrs 120-144 between the two coc Ls. This image was as good as we could get and most of the rest of the run was AN delta_t. The height field isn't ideal but there are other factors. Source regions of the airmass. If you have true Arctic air pressing it will bleed further south then you would expect just looking at the h5. It's definitely not a hecs pattern but with cold it's not awful for waves along the Arctic boundary and messy storms IF the boundary gets far enough south. Ggem last nights gefs and eps say it does. 12z gfs says nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: They're a lot of fun to track and analyze at short leads. You and I had some good times picking apart some of the events in 13/14 and 14/15. Although one of the events flipped to snow a good but later than we thought. Can't remember which one but I do remember being pissed off with rain at 11pm when it should have been snow at 9. Lol Idk if its the one you're referring to but 3/6/15 flipped to snow (down here at least) way later than forecast. We were all having a meltdown in our thread while LWX kept upping our snow totals- turns out LWX was right. Total blowout once it flipped. I liked that storm a lot. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Euro dropped to a dusting on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice front end hit on the euro. 6"+ Cold hangs in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Euro looking really nasty again next weekend. Waiting for the temp panels but it looks like a major sink job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Nice front end hit on the euro. 6"+ Cold hangs in longer. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro dropped to a dusting on Wed. I think that is probably the right idea given the 500h. It still forecasts a wintery mess for the weekend, way different that the GFS and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like the column is still good @ 12z sat. 850/700hpa temps are good. Surface very cold. Wish I had soundings. Regardless it would be a high impact event so nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Where? Highest totals are centered along I-95 verbatim, extending down into N Central VA. 8-9" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Man, surface is colder this run. Most of the area west of the fall line stays below freezing through 18z before the precip shuts off. Mappy, psu, and losetoa6 have no power by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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