mitchnick Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Yeah, its probably virga, but 2nd straight run from the NAM showing a possible very light snow band over the region hrs 32-36 (early Sun morning) It could, in fact, be snow falling but no acumulations. Typical around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Both the 12km NAM and the 4km drop about 0.05" QPF on my yard Sunday morning with temps in the mid-20s. RGEM is less, but still a coating. Hope it verifies. Would be nice to wake up to flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Don't give up on the mid week system. Judging by the past few runs literally anything is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z GFS gives some front end snow next Saturday before the changeover to rain. Has a little light snow on Wednesday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM has the EURO storm...though it is warmer. However, I am happy to see this setup @ 144 hours. We got a very strong ULL in SE Canada, HP setting up shop, and energy ready to be ejected out of the Southwest. This is the first 00z EURO run that I'm staying up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Every run of the GFS gets worse. This one is no exception with mid 60s next Sunday and that's at hour 210. There comes a point where we can't dismiss the op runs. There is some cold days for sure but my guess is we get to Xmas with bare ground. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Gfs is worse? It looks just like the euro for next weekend and had the highest snow totals so far. Also clips us on Thursday. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Except for monday, 00z gfs has frozen precip out of just about every system thru day 15...prepare for sleet bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looking through the gefs members over the next 10 days is pretty crazy. There's lot of ice. Not just here but a lot of places. I can't recall seeing anything like it in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Heh, how about the -nao on the gefs. That's what i want for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 57 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Every run of the GFS gets worse. This one is no exception with mid 60s next Sunday and that's at hour 210. There comes a point where we can't dismiss the op runs. There is some cold days for sure but my guess is we get to Xmas with bare ground. We shall see. What GFS are you looking at? Is there an alternative Universe 0z GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 00z Euro rolling... out to hr54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking through the gefs members over the next 10 days is pretty crazy. There's lot of ice. Not just here but a lot of places. I can't recall seeing anything like it in the past. This pattern has some similarities to 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, how about the -nao on the gefs. That's what i want for Christmas. If we can get some Atlantic help heading into our prime climo period this could get good. Still too soon to have any confidence but euro weeklies kinda took us in that direction but not until January. Gefs wants to get there faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Heh, nice little event on the euro for wed now. Popping the cork before the champagne on ice. Look like a couple inches region wide. Timing isn't the best with the majority falling between 18-0z but nice to see the same general idea on the euro and gfs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, nice little event on the euro for wed now. Popping the cork before the champagne on ice. Look like a couple inches region wide. Timing isn't the best with the majority falling between 18-0z but nice to see the same general idea on the euro and gfs now. For some reason, I'm liking this one more than next weekend so far...but waiting on word on that one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For some reason, I'm liking this one more than next weekend so far...but waiting on word on that one.. About the same as 12z. Decent snow to bad ice to rain and melty melty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: About the same as 12z. Decent snow to bad ice to rain and melty melty Hell, I'm game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 About 3-4" snow to a lot of ice then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: About 3-4" snow to a lot of ice then rain. Ice storm criteria ice (.25)? I mean, if we're gonna do this, let's go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 It's hard to say how much ice. Prob some sleet before zr. Changeover is sometime around 12z. All rain by 18z. A lot of rain though. I would guess that typical cad folks would get .25 of ice. Kitchen sink storm for sure. Pretty warm Sun. Like 60s south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ice storm criteria ice (.25)? I mean, if we're gonna do this, let's go big. No point in going big if it just gets washed away at the end...lol And you're saying 60s by that Sunday? Anymore cold shots in the week to follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The initial front running wave is good. Thump snow then ice. It's hard to pin exact amounts. .5 qpf falls during a period where it starts as snow but turns to sleet prob towards the end. Then another .5 the next 6 hours. By the end it's rain but most of that is probably freezing rain. Then a lull. But the front stalls and were on the wrong side so it gets warm. Like 60 at 7am Sunday warm. And the next wave is a LOT of rain. But that's assuming this is right anyways. There is still a frozen event there and that's good. Details I'll pass on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Thanks for the details guys, much appreciated. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like we have possible frozen events on the GFS on the 15th; 17th; 23rd; and for Bristow a frontal passage for the 25th (which could be a lot more). Once we get by the Monday thing, things get interesting to be sure. But we have to get lucky and get the cold air to get below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Good agreement with the Euro and the EPS for the day 7/8 storm, at least initially. Barring a mid-level warm layer between the 850's and the surface the ensembles show an initial snowfall of a couple/several inches of snow for the region before switching over to sleet and then most likely a major freezing rain event, especially N and West of the cities. After this is when the op and the ensembles diverge. Both show continued unsettled weather behind the main low as energy gets strung out but where as the op completely scours out the CAD bringing in temps of 50/60s and a warm rain the ensembles differ. They hold onto the CAD leaving temps in the mid/upper 30's north and west of the cities and possibly even leaving pockets of freezing rain in the favored regions. The ensembles also bring the 850's back through the region much more rapidly then the op so that we would see a change over back to snow from NW to SE with the potential of picking up a few inches on the back-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Euro for next Saturday is a kitchen sink storm for sure. 4-5" snow, ice, 1"+ of rain (imby). I'd take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The Wed/Thur period has my interest increasing. The Euro and GFS at this point have been showing a suppressed and weak/sheared out low riding across the southeast and OTS for quite a few runs now. But I would not be surprised that in future runs we see this feature shifting north and becoming stronger. The old GFS had a habit of over doing the cold in the mid and longer ranges thus suppressing and shearing out energy riding across the south as we see now. As the old GFS lead time shortened it would begin to bring the feature north and strengthening it. I believe we may be starting to see that now with the new GFS. The question though, is the new GFS showing the same tendency as the old or are we just seeing noise from one run to another. The Euro would lead me to believe that the GFS may be up to its old tricks. The Euro hasn't been the same since it's up grade so it is hard to gauge it's bias' so I will just mention the trends that have been seen over the last few runs. The general trend on the Euro has been to slowly draw that feature northward and strengthening it. At this point I am leaning towards a stronger and more northern solution with that low. If I am correct with my thoughts we should shortly begin to see an noticeable uptick in the snowfall means for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 hours ago, stormtracker said: What GFS are you looking at? Is there an alternative Universe 0z GFS run? He is probably looking at my favorite model. The new Para-Noid GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 17 minutes ago, debeaches said: He is probably looking at my favorite model. The new Para-Noid GFS You might jackpot on the midweek thing. Keep it weak and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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