Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Primary track is west but that doesn't mean warm and rain at all. You have to consider the antecedent air mass. It's a beast on the model run. We've had many storms track to the west that give us snow. They just end as mixed precip or plain ole rain. It's a staple here and this particular setup is pretty classic. Thanks, I guess my inner weenie is asking what the best track would be. I'm going to assume that would be a southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS trends better for mid week Damn, quick draw Bob beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS trends better for mid week Damn, quick draw Bob beat me to it. Temps kinda suck but the track shifted further south so there's that going for our area. Hopefully by the 12z sunday runs we have consensus that includes snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Haven't looked at things all day, how we doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Temps kinda suck but the track shifted further south so there's that going for our area. Hopefully by the 12z sunday runs we have consensus that includes snow. lol Was just looking at temps. Verbatim it would be some wet flakes falling as it ends. Trending however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS back on track with the mid week deal. LOL. It gon b a long week or 2 Oy. I want off this ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: Oy. I want off this ride. You're on for life. Suck it up buttercup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Haven't looked at things all day, how we doing? Trends are with us. Gonna be partying soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Trends are with us. Gonna be partying soon!Oh good. I was hoping that while I've been dealing with poop* today, something good was happening on the models. *Don't ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oy. I want off this ride. For some reason I don't believe you...at all...lol We've been talking about mid range pop ups over the last week. Euro ens don't like it but they also tend to follow the op @ <D5. If 0z has something then the ens will follow. Either way it's not going to be a big deal. Scoring 1" would be a big win and a good ice breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Well now for something different! Snow hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well now for something different! Snow hole! Now see, after what happened in Dec. 2010...I associate a La Nina with this scenario, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 https://www.wxrisk.com/the-next-10days-possible-ice-storm-threat-va-nc-md-del-dec-17-18/ If interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now see, after what happened in Dec. 2010...I associate a La Nina with this scenario, lol First thing that popped in my head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pretty sure we should like the models so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty sure we should like the models so far today Agreed. The trends are good. The Para is a weenie run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Even the 18z. It seems different from 12z. Just slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 This was shared by DT! This was the Ice output from the Euro for next weekend! https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/ecmwf_runice_228_east.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It was 2013-2014. That year was a fast starter and went all the way through march. 2014-2015 had a slow December. Yeah, 2013-14 was pretty much wall-to-wall winter through March, although December was kind of "meh". 2014-15 had little that was memorable into the first part of February (well, we did score an over-performing clipper early Jan), then we got hammered from February right into the early part of March with a very back-loaded season. That February had some brutal cold, even more than Feb. 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 25 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well now for something different! Snow hole! LOL!! What time period does that cover? Shades of Dec. 2010, indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This was shared by DT! This was the Ice output from the Euro for next weekend! https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/ecmwf_runice_228_east.jpg Disturbing... but good thing that won't come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 A few interesting ensemble members on the 18z GFS for mid-week.... but still meh IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 57 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: First thing that popped in my head! Dec 2010 was quite different. Miller B that screwed places west of the bay. East and NE cashed in. There was a up to a foot of snow in central and eastern DE and much more in NJ and points east and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 question is the ice accum shown by ec before or after any snowfall we might get or in place of snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said: question is the ice accum shown by ec before or after any snowfall we might get?? Could have been reading wxbell wrong, but it appeared to be after we warm up, so after the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 tyvm 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Could have been reading wxbell wrong, but it appeared to be after we warm up, so after the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 It's interesting that the SE ridge and trough west on ensembles isn't translating into much if any AN temp anomalies in the MA. I noticed this a couple days ago but figured it was just a disconnect. Seeing the same type of correlation the last couple days has me connecting some dots. Looks like we are walking the line on guidance. Even though the trough seems stuck in the west on the means I don't thinks that's really what the models are seeing. My guess is guidance is seeing strong cold diving down out of Canada out west but still making it in modified form to our latitude in the east. The gradient is probably going to remain active but seeing AN heights here and south of us doesn't mean that there is no chance of BN temps and even snow chances. Any big storm will likely go west but ens imply that we are still in the game for mixed events. The euro ens mean hi/low temp bar charts have mean high temps only in the low-mid 40's at d15 and lower before that. I was surprised after looking at h5 anoms. Gefs is the same. Normally when you see an H5 mean like the d10-15 range it means warm and sucky. I have my doubts that we are going into a prolonged warmup/relax post day 10. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's interesting that the SE ridge and trough west on ensembles isn't translating into much if any AN temp anomalies in the MA. I noticed this a couple days ago but figured it was just a disconnect. Seeing the same type of correlation the last couple days has me connecting some dots. Looks like we are walking the line on guidance. Even though the trough seems stuck in the west on the means I don't thinks that's really what the models are seeing. My guess is guidance is seeing strong cold diving down out of Canada out west but still making it in modified form to our latitude in the east. The gradient is probably going to remain active but seeing AN heights here and south of us doesn't mean that there is no chance of BN temps and even snow chances. Any big storm will likely go west but ens imply that we are still in the game for mixed events. The euro ens mean hi/low temp bar charts have mean high temps only in the low-mid 40's at d15 and lower before that. I was surprised after looking at h5 anoms. Gefs is the same. Normally when you see an H5 mean like the d10-15 range it means warm and sucky. I have my doubts that we are going into a prolonged warmup/relax post day 10. Time will tell. Good post. I have noticed this as well. You see the higher h5 heights and expect to see warmish 850 mb and surface temps, but at worst they are average. Mostly below avg. And this is one of the issues with an ens mean- the smoothing and maybe not capturing "important details" in the day to day pattern evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 There's still so much spread in the solutions for midweek that it's silly to assume one prog or another has the right idea, but I think there's still hope for a light snow event (with or without mix). The flow is so fast, I think the weaker/sheared out solutions make more sense, which might keep us in the game more. That's what the GFS and Euro have gone to today, FWIW. What's interesting in the 12z and 18z GFS and GEFS is that you really see this strung out series of weak lows and a lot of energy hangs back over the Plains and Midwest even as precip arrives Wednesday morning. We want to root for that backend energy to maintain itself or even amplify a little. As the first piece of energy passes through, it drags the temp boundary farther south, so could end up in the cold sector for the second piece Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 12z Euro somewhat has this idea with the 2nd piece of energy stronger than the 1st piece that the GFS is keying on. My flight lands at ~5pm Wednesday. I wouldn't mind getting home in some light snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Yeah, its probably virga, but 2nd straight run from the NAM showing a possible very light snow band over the region hrs 32-36 (early Sun morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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