BristowWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: @Bob Chill , Why do you think it will be ice once we "torch"? Soil temps? We are near 40° at the end of the run it seems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Because CAD usually hangs on longer than models would see. Especially with snow. Unless you have a screaming SE wind. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: @Bob Chill , Why do you think it will be ice once we "torch"? Soil temps? We are near 40° at the end of the run it seems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I was going off verbatim surface and mid level panels. It does warm up above freezing at all levels but not before serious stuff has already occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Huh... check out the 18z NAM at 36/39/42 hrs... which is early Sun morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 A lot of ens support for the op. Fairly tightly clustered as well. This threat is becoming legit for now. We officially have something inside of 10 days. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh... check out the 18z NAM at 36/39/42 hrs... which is early Sun morning There's nothing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: A lot of ens support for the op. Fairly tightly clustered as well. This threat is becoming legit for now. We officially have something inside of 10 days. LOL Stayed almost perfectly consistent with 0z. That's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's nothing there. Lil bit of light snow... snowTV... not saying that there would be accums... but nice to see it appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: There's nothing there. Band of light precip moved about 50 miles south from the 12z. GFS had this at 12z. Little light snow band Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I think TT is having some issues with NAM Precip depiction. It kinda looked like that for our "threat" yesterday too, even just a few hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think TT is having some issues with NAM Precip depiction. It kinda looked like that for our "threat" yesterday too, even just a few hours out. It's composite sim radar. Could easily be virga or random flakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I think TT is having some issues with NAM Precip depiction. It kinda looked like that for our "threat" yesterday too, even just a few hours out. Image of total precip for reference... it might all just be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Lil bit of light snow... snowTV... not saying that there would be accums... but nice to see it appear Composite Reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's composite sim radar. Could easily be virga or random flakes though. I was more talking about it being a quick hitter of some very light snow or snowflakes... just something to see to increase the winter spirit before the rain later that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Stayed almost perfectly consistent with 0z. That's a start. Yea, definitely nice seeing a much tighter cluster of lows and more consolidated MSLP panels combined with barely losing on mean snowfall output. The range of solutions narrowed but we didn't trend way down in the frozen dept. Gonna be a long week. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 The Sun/Mon deal is still open IMO. If you look at the NAM and GFS forecasts from today and 24 hours ago, you can see quite the change. Change doesn't mean it's good, just that it's far from nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, definitely nice seeing a much tighter cluster of lows and more consolidated MSLP panels combined with barely losing on mean snowfall output. The range of solutions narrowed but we didn't trend way down in the frozen dept. Gonna be a long week. LOL Models today have put me in a different mood. Nothing major, but seems today's theme is change for the better. 12 hours from now, I might feel completely different, but at least for now, good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 EURO Ens. Mean would indicate a pretty significant ice threat to me... More so than an initial thump of snow. Here's a look at the 192 hr panels and you can see the 0C line @ 850 already surging north. This is, btw, when the OP had the precip just starting. That, and major CAD areas, like where I am in Charlottesville, this would likely be a mostly IP/ZR event rather than snow. The Ensemble Mean does indicate that we could be talking about a transfer from a TN/KY/OH low to a coastal low during the event. Even then, the 1st low getting to OH would mean ice for a good amount of people on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Para GFS is a hit for Wednesday/Thursday and a big hit for next weekend. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Para GFS is a hit for Wednesday/Thursday and a big hit for next weekend. Looks good. Oh wow, lock that S up and I could care less about shorts and tees on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Might be too soon to give up on mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looks like the EPO may be establishing itself for the long term this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Para GFS is a hit for Wednesday/Thursday and a big hit for next weekend. Looks good. Any verification on that model? It sure seems to like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, kurtstack said: Looks like the EPO may be establishing itself for the long term this winter. Was it 2014-2015 winter where the EPO was pretty much the driver of our cold and snow - and put us above average for the season with multiple hits. I think that winter was also a slow starter. In fact it was a slow starting winter: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/09/final-snowfall-total-map-for-2014-2015-another-overachieving-winter-in-the-d-c-area/?utm_term=.943bd709de7f It was 2013-2014. That year was a fast starter and went all the way through march. 2014-2015 had a slow December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It was 2013-2014. That year was a fast starter and went all the way through march. 2014-2015 had a slow December. Thanks my memory is getting worse with age and with consecutive above normal winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any verification on that model? It sure seems to like snow. I can vouch for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The thing about Dec 13 was the ridge was very strong in Dec but too far west during Dec. That's why we struggled most of the month. The ridge progressed later and dropped the hammer on us multiple times. What we are seeing so far this Dec is quite a bit different. The EPO really isn't that impressive so far at all. The cold is mostly driven by the aleutian ridge. Which is great of course but the expanse of ridging is far smaller than 2013. Also, 2013/14 was a statistical anomaly with only 1 good analog (93-94). That year sucked in the snow dept because we ended up on the wrong side of the gradient almost every time. Ice was prolific though. lol If we repeated the same general idea as 13/14 five times in a row, I doubt any year would come close. We got uber lucky. It was one of those stars aligned years that we'll remember a long time but likely not experience another for a long time. At least not the same way that year went. Prolific snows with fast pac flow and no blocking is a gift. OTOH- As we're seeing in with LR ens right now, the trough looks to dominate the west for a while but it wouldn't take much to roll that forward here. At the very least I can envision a similar patter re-establishing like the one we are entering now. And being in the heart of snow climo it could be more kind to us. Just a total guess but makes sense in my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Right. So far this big Pac ridge is more of a -WPO, not a -EPO. They share some domain space, so they can often correlate, but not always. December 13 gave us some decent snow, but we were close to much more. Damn that was a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 A lot of ens support for the op. Fairly tightly clustered as well. This threat is becoming legit for now. We officially have something inside of 10 days. LOLAm I reading this wrong or does it seem the cutter idea is favored verbatim? Still quite a few with a good track, but many seem to send us tropical rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Am I reading this wrong or does it seem the cutter idea is favored verbatim? Still quite a few with a good track, but many seem to send us tropical rains Primary track is west but that doesn't mean warm and rain at all. You have to consider the antecedent air mass. It's a beast on the model run. We've had many storms track to the west that give us snow. They just end as mixed precip or plain ole rain. It's a staple here and this particular setup is pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS back on track with the mid week deal. LOL. It gon b a long week or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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