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December Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

@Bob Chill , Why do you think it will be ice once we "torch"? Soil temps? We are near 40° at the end of the run it seems.


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Because CAD usually hangs on longer than models would see.  Especially with snow.  Unless you have a screaming SE wind.  We shall see.

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12 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

@Bob Chill , Why do you think it will be ice once we "torch"? Soil temps? We are near 40° at the end of the run it seems.


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I was going off verbatim surface and mid level panels. It does warm up above freezing at all levels but not before serious stuff has already occurred. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Stayed almost perfectly consistent with 0z.  That's a start.

Yea, definitely nice seeing a much tighter cluster of lows and more consolidated MSLP panels combined with barely losing on mean snowfall output. The range of solutions narrowed but we didn't trend way down in the frozen dept. Gonna be a long week. LOL

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, definitely nice seeing a much tighter cluster of lows and more consolidated MSLP panels combined with barely losing on mean snowfall output. The range of solutions narrowed but we didn't trend way down in the frozen dept. Gonna be a long week. LOL

Models today have put me in a different mood.  Nothing major, but seems today's theme is change for the better.

12 hours from now, I might feel completely different, but at least for now, good to go.

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EURO Ens. Mean would indicate a pretty significant ice threat to me... More so than an initial thump of snow. Here's a look at the 192 hr panels and you can see the 0C line @ 850 already surging north. This is, btw, when the OP had the precip just starting. 

That, and major CAD areas, like where I am in Charlottesville, this would likely be a mostly IP/ZR event rather than snow. 

The Ensemble Mean does indicate that we could be talking about a transfer from a TN/KY/OH low to a coastal low during the event. Even then, the 1st low getting to OH would mean ice for a good amount of people on here. 

msfct_f192_bg_US.png

m850t_f192_bg_US.png

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19 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

Looks like the EPO may be establishing itself for the long term this winter.  Was it 2014-2015 winter where the EPO was pretty much the driver of our cold and snow - and put us above average for the season with multiple hits.  I think that winter was also a slow starter. In fact it was a slow starting winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/09/final-snowfall-total-map-for-2014-2015-another-overachieving-winter-in-the-d-c-area/?utm_term=.943bd709de7f

 

It was 2013-2014. That year was a fast starter and went all the way through march. 2014-2015 had a slow December.

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The thing about Dec 13 was the ridge was very strong in Dec but too far west during Dec. That's why we struggled most of the month. The ridge progressed later and dropped the hammer on us multiple times. 

dec13.JPG

 

 

What we are seeing so far this Dec is quite a bit different. The EPO really isn't that impressive so far at all. The cold is mostly driven by the aleutian ridge. Which is great of course but the expanse of ridging is far smaller than 2013. Also, 2013/14 was a statistical anomaly with only 1 good analog (93-94). That year sucked in the snow dept because we ended up on the wrong side of the gradient almost every time. Ice was prolific though. lol

If we repeated the same general idea as 13/14 five times in a row, I doubt any year would come close. We got uber lucky. It was one of those stars aligned years that we'll remember a long time but likely not experience another for a long time. At least not the same way that year went. Prolific snows with fast pac flow and no blocking is a gift. 

 

OTOH- As we're seeing in with LR ens right now, the trough looks to dominate the west for a while but it wouldn't take much to roll that forward here. At the very least I can envision a similar patter re-establishing like the one we are entering now. And being in the heart of snow climo it could be more kind to us. Just a total guess but makes sense in my brain. 

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11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 


Am I reading this wrong or does it seem the cutter idea is favored verbatim? Still quite a few with a good track, but many seem to send us tropical rains :)
 

 

Primary track is west but that doesn't mean warm and rain at all. You have to consider the antecedent air mass. It's a beast on the model run. We've had many storms track to the west that give us snow. They just end as mixed precip or plain ole rain. It's a staple here and this particular setup is pretty classic. 

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