yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. Try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. Looks pretty good to me, but I'm pretty new at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. Awful. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ummm....screams major snow to ice to me. Surface is like in the low-mid 20's. Sounds nice going by the descriptions, but of course nobody should take it seriously or expect it to hold in this chaos. But I'm with Wes...at this point with all the cold air on the map, something's gotta give eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ummm....screams major snow to ice to me. Surface is like in the low-mid 20's. i always think of that late Feb 2015 storm that looked terrible on paper but gave us a foot of snow lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Borderline at 216... but still prob snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. I dont know about that. That is a pretty serious cold dome. True arctic air should hold on for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: Sounds nice going by the descriptions, but of course nobody should take it seriously or expect it to hold in this chaos. But I'm with Wes...at this point with all the cold air on the map, something's gotta give eventually. Goes right along with what I posted this morning. It's a serious CAD setup and even a tn valley runner would still lay down a big mixed event here. As depicted on the 12z euro it would be sorta historic. WSW criteria snowfall encrusted in a shield of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 At some point one of these storms will generate its own south track and be right where we want it. Cold air and stuff and fast flow and stuff and things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: Borderline at 216... but still prob snow 850's go +5-10 between 204 and 210. It's major ice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Goes right along with what I posted this morning. It's a serious CAD setup and even a tn valley runner would still lay down a big mixed event here. As depicted on the 12z euro it would be sorta historic. WSW criteria snowfall encrusted in a shield of ice. 12z GGEM went well along with the 12z EURO... EURO is about 24 hrs faster than the GGEM was for this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I dont know about that. That is a pretty serious cold dome. True arctic air should hold on for quite a while. HR 216, there's nearly a 300 mile fetch off the Atlantic and a retreating high...you can't maintain snow like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HR 216, there's nearly a 300 mile fetch off the Atlantic and a retreating high...you can't maintain snow like that. And hr 198-204 are snow and 210 ice... nice try though DC is easily 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: HR 216, there's nearly a 300 mile fetch off the Atlantic and a retreating high...you can't maintain snow like that. It changes over well before 216 as Bob said above. But the damage is done by that point. Obviously it would favor the usual areas for a later switch. But you stated It couldnt be worse. When in fact it could be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: HR 216, there's nearly a 300 mile fetch off the Atlantic and a retreating high...you can't maintain snow like that. There's like 5-8" on the ground by 204. Surface still below freezing for nearly 12 hours after. I'm not sure why you are deviating from actual model output so much. We discussing the run and it's a major event no matter how you slice it. 2 runs in a row with ens support too. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 850's go +5-10 between 204 and 210. It's major ice though. It would end up being ice/rain verbatim. Its a long way out so details aren't important. If that air mass is real, hard to believe that wouldn't trend more in our favor. As is, it snows at least a few inches everywhere before 850s warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: There's like 5-8" on the ground by 204. Surface still below freezing for nearly 12 hours after. I'm not sure why you are deviating from actual model output so much. We discussing the run and it's a major event no matter how you slice it. 2 runs in a row with ens support too. Sheesh. I guess he doesn't want it... I mean we would all take this run and run... ens were supportive as well as you state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's like 5-8" on the ground by 204. Surface still below freezing for nearly 12 hours after. I'm not sure why you are deviating from actual model output so much. We discussing the run and it's a major event no matter how you slice it. 2 runs in a row with ens support too. Sheesh. I doubt that much as the warming would come in first above 850. It and the GGEM are how we could get winter weather, if the system holds off until Monday, we'd probably be screwedd except the the luvr group way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's like 5-8" on the ground by 204. Surface still below freezing for nearly 12 hours after. I'm not sure why you are deviating from actual model output so much. We discussing the run and it's a major event no matter how you slice it. 2 runs in a row with ens support too. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's like 5-8" on the ground by 204. Surface still below freezing for nearly 12 hours after. I'm not sure why you are deviating from actual model output so much. We discussing the run and it's a major event no matter how you slice it. 2 runs in a row with ens support too. Sheesh. I'm gonna recommend not to engage him any longer. But anyway, the noteworthy thing I guess is that the Euro isn't alone. I'd take what it's showing, changeover and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I doubt that much as the warming would come in first above 850. It and the GGEM are how we could get winter weather, if the system holds off until Monday, we'd probably be screwedd except the the luvr group way west. For the evolution and track I would say the run is top end potential. Which is rarely reached of course and totally agree with you. I like that it follows the general idea of CAD and strong WAA push of precip into established cold. We've done ok with this stuff in 13/14 and 14/15 so maybe I have recency bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 20 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not as if it were ever necessarily alive but the Sun/Mon system is deff dead now on the 18Z GFS....The system after that doesnt look particularly good either. Would be somewhat surprised if we get an accumulating snow before Christmas in my opinion. I'm not giving up on the 15th until Sunday afternoon. Snow is fairly close. You want a surprise, this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm not giving up on the 15th until Sunday afternoon. Snow is fairly close. You want a surprise, this could be it. agree...we could see a snowflake or two sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm not giving up on the 15th until Sunday afternoon. Snow is fairly close. You want a surprise, this could be it. I like this post and agree. As for the Euro system for next weekend.....if you compare the past two runs, this run did not trend better. The whole storm basically shifted 100 miles north and dried up. The one area that remained the same was the DC/Balt area. As others have mentioned, foolishness is nit picking a 200 hour op run. Going forward, I would just like to see some stuff trend toward us instead of away. Hopefully the ens trends will be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ji said: agree...we could see a snowflake or two sunday night Highly doubtful IMO... and for the 15th system it better move like 150 miles to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I like this post and agree. As for the Euro system for next weekend.....if you compare the past two runs, this run did not trend better. The whole storm basically shifted 100 miles north and dried up. The one area that remained the same was the DC/Balt area. As others have mentioned, foolishness is nit picking a 200 hour op run. Going forward, I would just like to see some stuff trend toward us instead of away. Hopefully the ens trends will be in our favor. thats the one thing...its 9 days out and we have very little wiggle room. If it goes north, we got dry slotted and waste the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looking closer at that system next weekend, it sure looks like it would be a b**ch of an ice storm on top of 4-6" of snow region wide. 850's soar but the ground temps are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I like this post and agree. As for the Euro system for next weekend.....if you compare the past two runs, this run did not trend better. The whole storm basically shifted 100 miles north and dried up. The one area that remained the same was the DC/Balt area. As others have mentioned, foolishness is nit picking a 200 hour op run. Going forward, I would just like to see some stuff trend toward us instead of away. Hopefully the ens trends will be in our favor. It really didn't trend as much as it's a new way of getting there. Quite a difference in the upper levels well in advance. Just one of many looks we'll get (for better or worse) over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It really didn't trend as much as it's a new way of getting there. Quite a difference in the upper levels well in advance. Just one of many looks we'll get (for better or worse) over the coming days. Mon isn't as far off as I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 @Bob Chill , Why do you think it will be ice once we "torch"? Soil temps? We are near 40° at the end of the run it seems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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