H2O Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I know we don't NEED blocking in the Atl to get snow but given this pattern I think the lack of any won't help. These quick warm ups shown will keep happening unless we can get something to trap the cold in. We can CAD at first which can give some areas a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I know we don't NEED blocking in the Atl to get snow but given this pattern I think the lack of any won't help. These quick warm ups shown will keep happening unless we can get something to trap the cold in. We can CAD at first which can give some areas a nice thump. Yea the lack of Atlantic blocking is killing me. If we even had a modest -NAO I'd be excited given this setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I am hoping that 1047 H in the Plains doesn't crush our system for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Gfs op still squashing the Saturday thing which will probably result in the Monday wave cutting with no storm off New England to create confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Models tend to over exaggerate changes and solutions based on their inherent biases at longer leads, which is why ensemble modeling is such a powerful tool past 84 hours. Using an operational run at 200 hours out is only slightly more skilled than using a single ensemble member of the GEFS at that range. I tend to agree that since the true arctic air is not currently in place, models will probably overestimate the rate/magnitude of change until the arctic air takes residence in the Eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Meh...a few ensemble members are interesting for mid-week... but thats quickly going bye bye I would like e9 to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Those anomalies are crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Next weekend storm appears on the 12z GGEM Day 9-10... snow to ice 12z GEFS members are all over the place for next weekend... some decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Para looks not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs op still squashing the Saturday thing which will probably result in the Monday wave cutting with no storm off New England to create confluence. With the -PNA and no blocking its going to be a real challenge to get a storm not to cut. Per guidance we cant seem to get deep enough into the cold air and when a stronger wave approaches it takes an unfavorable track and the cold scours out. A front ender looks like the best chance, which can work out pretty well up your way. A weaker wave could slide underneath and give us a cold light snow, but seems they are just damping out in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 46 minutes ago, yoda said: Next weekend storm appears on the 12z GGEM Day 9-10... snow to ice 12z GEFS members are all over the place for next weekend... some decent Quick analysis of GEFS, we pretty much completely lost threat 1 and 2 from the 5 windows I identified yesterday. 1 was already on life support but we went from 10 hits down to 2 and even those are pathetic "hits" on todays 12z run. Due to losing these the overall mean did drop 1-3" across the area depending on location. However, if you want a silver lining, the next 3 windows are very much still bullish on the ensembles. It was also nice to see some snow on the para gfs run at 6z but no idea how that is verifying. There is still a strong majority that gets us some snow with either the 17th, 19th, or post 20th windows. Plenty of multiple hit members also. There are no members that show no snow, but 3 are paltry with less then 1.5" in DC total from several cartoppers, and the way they get there is painful, 2 of the three miss us to the north 4 times and once to the south with Richmond getting decent snow on 2 of the bad DC runs. The other simply misses north of all 5 threats. It is frustrating to punt the first 2 windows if that is the way we go, but its also typical in these types of pattern changes where its toward the end that we have more legit threats not towards the beginning of a cold pattern. What to look for at this point is now that the first two bogus threats are off the ensembles and no longer skewing it, we should begin to see the hits and mean increase as the "real" threat window approaches if its real. If at this point we see it stagnant or decreasing that is a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Quick analysis of GEFS, we pretty much completely lost threat 1 and 2 from the 5 windows I identified yesterday. 1 was already on life support but we went from 10 hits down to 2 and even those are pathetic "hits" on todays 12z run. Due to losing these the overall mean did drop 1-3" across the area depending on location. However, if you want a silver lining, the next 3 windows are very much still bullish on the ensembles. It was also nice to see some snow on the para gfs run at 6z but no idea how that is verifying. There is still a strong majority that gets us some snow with either the 17th, 19th, or post 20th windows. Plenty of multiple hit members also. There are no members that show no snow, but 3 are paltry with less then 1.5" in DC total from several cartoppers, and the way they get there is painful, 2 of the three miss us to the north 4 times and once to the south with Richmond getting decent snow on 2 of the bad DC runs. The other simply misses north of all 5 threats. It is frustrating to punt the first 2 windows if that is the way we go, but its also typical in these types of pattern changes where its toward the end that we have more legit threats not towards the beginning of a cold pattern. What to look for at this point is now that the first two bogus threats are off the ensembles and no longer skewing it, we should begin to see the hits and mean increase as the "real" threat window approaches if its real. If at this point we see it stagnant or decreasing that is a bad sign. Seems the legit threat ,and coldest scenario , may be the 20th looking at the evolution of the Euro from last evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, frd said: Seems the legit threat ,and coldest scenario , may be the 20th looking at the evolution of the Euro from last evening It really depends on how the events of the 17th go. The one GEFS member that is a total blank for the mid atlantic gets there the same way as the op, no storm around the 17th which increases the space between waves and so ridging goes nuts along the east coast before the 2 waves in the 19th-24th period get here. That causes them both to go well north of us. The models that have a better system around the 17th then also have a legit threat the week after. Even a close miss to our north on the 17th is preferable then a squashed system. The worst solutions are the ones that have no storm the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 We get a bit of blocking just in time for the southeast ridge per the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It really depends on how the events of the 17th go. The one GEFS member that is a total blank for the mid atlantic gets there the same way as the op, no storm around the 17th which increases the space between waves and so ridging goes nuts along the east coast before the 2 waves in the 19th-24th period get here. That causes them both to go well north of us. The models that have a better system around the 17th then also have a legit threat the week after. Even a close miss to our north on the 17th is preferable then a squashed system. The worst solutions are the ones that have no storm the 17th. Thanks , very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 lol- it's pretty funny that we're "worried" or analyzing op runs for next weekend. Major height shift on the euro by hr 114. Now major confluence, no amplification, and no midweek wave at all. All future op speculation should end there imo. We don't know jack. Well...there's a wave...of flurries/light snow zipping along the confluence. I'd take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: We get a bit of blocking just in time for the southeast ridge per the 12z GFS. A SE ridge might not be the worst thing if its cold and we get some blocking. Have to see how it works out. Its too far out to worry about it. And I am curious, how much snow do you think we "should" get? Because anytime it looks like it might now snow your posts seem like mother nature is spitting in your face. There is a reason DC averages like 16" a year. Given how much snow we have had the lat few years were are due for a run of sucking. That's our climo. Of course I hope it doesn't happen but I am not acting shocked or angry every time its not snowing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's pretty funny that were "worried" or analyzing op runs for next weekend. Major height shift on the euro by hr 114. Now major confluence, no amplification, and no midweek wave at all. All future op speculation should end there imo. We don't know jack. Well...there's a wave...of flurries/light snow zipping along the confluence. I'd take that and run. Yeah, these past few days should show most of us that we're in the dark for sure on the next week to 10 days. The days of long lead storms may be out for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, these past few days should show most of us that we're in the dark for sure on the next week to 10 days. The days of long lead storms may be out for a while. Yep, your right, without significant blocking , its total chaos , expect the unexpected :-) Sometimes snowfall suprises are the best weather geek gift of all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro really dropping the cold hammer to the north this run. Sub 490 thicknesses in upstate NY and sub 500 heights in ME. Impressive. Impressive cold dome below it too. I was discounting the 1040+ pressure on the GFS. Now the euro does it. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Para looks not too bad. You are referring to the 6Z correct? The 18Z is not out yet is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro really dropping the cold hammer to the north this run. Sub 490 thicknesses in upstate NY and sub 500 heights in ME. Impressive. Impressive cold dome below it too. I was discounting the 1040+ pressure on the GFS. Now the euro does it. heh. Yeah check out those 850 anomalies at 168. Serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 WOW, check out the CAD on the EURO @ 180-204 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: WOW, check out the CAD on the EURO @ 180-204 hours. If there's no precip, it's useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 This should be a fun end to the EURO run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro really dropping the cold hammer to the north this run. Sub 490 thicknesses in upstate NY and sub 500 heights in ME. Impressive. Impressive cold dome below it too. I was discounting the 1040+ pressure on the GFS. Now the euro does it. heh. The surface pattern and 500 patterns are sure convoluted. Not sure what to make of them. It certainly offer winter weather if it were correct, maybe snow to nasty ice especially west and north of the city would go to rain for us city dwellers and probably everyone eventually.. Too early to take any model seriously this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: WOW, check out the CAD on the EURO @ 180-204 hours. You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z EURO at 204 YES PLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Well, Randy, fortunately for you, there is precip. My SV maps have significant snow from the deep SE, and close to a foot in most of W NW VA up into W MD & PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You couldn't have a worse setup for us. High pressure over Boston moving east with a sub-1000 mb low screaming into West Virginia. Screams 35 and rain. Ummm....screams major snow to ice to me. Surface is like in the low-mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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