yoda Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Great analysis psuhoffman... thanks for your time making that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You're assuming it's modeled correctly. Big assumption lately. So you are assuming that his assumption that its modeled correctly may be incorrect. Got it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Great read-up from CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Eps look solid like the gefs. Run also backed off a bit on the warm conus idea late. I'm not worried about the trough west/higher heights east late in the period. At worst it would be temporary. If anything it looks like the general pattern we are entering is just going to continue. With wobbles back and forth with trough axis. With so much ens support for one of these shortwaves working out you would think the ops will start throwing bones this weekend. The NE laying down some snowpack early next week can only help us down the line. At the very least...Dec is proving to not be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think the ops have thrown us some bones, but there's just a no consistency. would be nice for them to key on one short wave and maintain that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think the experts on this board are going to be proven correct. In the midst of this progressive model mayhem, one day in the very near future, we're going to have a model spit out a 4-6 inch storm with a lead time of three days or less. With our region being bombarded with possibles and with cold air being on us or close, hard to believe we get shut out. It's like golf. The more times you get tee to green in regulation, the more birdies you'll get. Scientific analysis, nope. Reality, yes. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 WSW on Xmas eve. Just this once please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah I think we got a little bit. But a full on area wide winter event would be just crazy fun. Even IP and ZR. whatever just not PC and 50F. I just jinxed it didn't I. That will be the forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Not as if it were ever necessarily alive but the Sun/Mon system is deff dead now on the 18Z GFS....The system after that doesnt look particularly good either. Would be somewhat surprised if we get an accumulating snow before Christmas in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The PA/MD border seems to be a barrier! GFS now giving that look like the Euro had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 31 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not as if it were ever necessarily alive but the Sun/Mon system is deff dead now on the 18Z GFS....The system after that doesnt look particularly good either. Would be somewhat surprised if we get an accumulating snow before Christmas in my opinion. I think a minor placement change on the 15th system to the south and east would serve us well! I also think the system on the 20th is ripe with possibilities. Seems like after Monday's non-event, the LP's are more south and east; that minor change PSU has talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 DT - ALERT !! -- 1ST SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FOR MANY over various portions of Ohio valley ...Middle Atlantic and New England week of DEC 11-17 - 1st Event DEC 11-12 from Interstate 70 northward in Ohio valley & PA and Most of New England. -- new arctic front DEC 13-14 brings rain to Middle Atlantic ( VA MD DEL PA WVA) that changes to snow for several hours late DEC 14... POSSIBLE significant snow/ ice DEC 17???? DEC 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: DT - ALERT !! -- 1ST SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FOR MANY over various portions of Ohio valley ...Middle Atlantic and New England week of DEC 11-17 - 1st Event DEC 11-12 from Interstate 70 northward in Ohio valley & PA and Most of New England. -- new arctic front DEC 13-14 brings rain to Middle Atlantic ( VA MD DEL PA WVA) that changes to snow for several hours late DEC 14... POSSIBLE significant snow/ ice DEC 17???? DEC 20? He'd better not look at the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Once again the GEFS looks better temp wise than the op. At least from what I can tell. We were due for a less than inspiring run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Once again the GEFS looks better temp wise than the op. At least from what I can tell. We were due for a less than inspiring run Not sure how we were due for a less inspiring run. To me compared to the gefs the ops have been uninspiring. It's been the better part of the gefs runs the last several days showing healthy snow totals on about half the members. I've been thinking each op run maybe this will be the one that shows a couple flush hits and a 10-15" snowfall total across the area like a good 50% of the gefs do. But nope. That have pretty much all been like the 2-3 gefs members that show little almost every run. I'm honestly not sure what to make of that. Could just be a statistical anomaly and chance. Could it be something about the op that is sniffing the pattern differently? No idea. But my confidence would jump some if the ops start getting on board with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure how we were due for a less inspiring run. To me compared to the gefs the ops have been uninspiring. It's been the better part of the gefs runs the last several days showing healthy snow totals on about half the members. I've been thinking each op run maybe this will be the one that shows a couple flush hits and a 10-15" snowfall total across the area like a good 50% of the gefs do. But nope. That have pretty much all been like the 2-3 gefs members that show little almost every run. I'm honestly not sure what to make of that. Could just be a statistical anomaly and chance. Could it be something about the op that is sniffing the pattern differently? No idea. But my confidence would jump some if the ops start getting on board with the ensembles. I would go so far as to say that the 18z is one of the most comical runs (in a nut kick sort of way) that I've ever seen. 594 heights nearly to the Fla/Ga line? You can't make that stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure how we were due for a less inspiring run. To me compared to the gefs the ops have been uninspiring. It's been the better part of the gefs runs the last several days showing healthy snow totals on about half the members. I've been thinking each op run maybe this will be the one that shows a couple flush hits and a 10-15" snowfall total across the area like a good 50% of the gefs do. But nope. That have pretty much all been like the 2-3 gefs members that show little almost every run. I'm honestly not sure what to make of that. Could just be a statistical anomaly and chance. Could it be something about the op that is sniffing the pattern differently? No idea. But my confidence would jump some if the ops start getting on board with the ensembles. I suppose it's possible that the GEFS resolution is playing a factor. We're walking a line with most of these events. The courser resolution could potentially be skewing output in our favor when in reality the storm tracks/progression don't easily support large snowfall. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Anyone with Wxbell want to let us know how the Euro monthlies look. They were issued today. Interesting to compare them to the weeklies too. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Weeklies are decent. Week 3 is the worst pattern. I'm not sure I buy it to be honest. Not saying that it should be a great period or anything. Just questioning having such + height anomalies in the east. Beyond week 3 looks fine. Not great but definitely typical winter stuff vs torch. Pretty similar to what we are seeing now but better ridge placement in the west/ak at times. Still a fairly strong -NAO signal but we've seen a lot of that lately. For those who have wxbell...check out the control run h5 anoms @ d33. LOL. Wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I suppose it's possible that the GEFS resolution is playing a factor. We're walking a line with most of these events. The courser resolution could potentially be skewing output in our favor when in reality the storm tracks/progression don't easily support large snowfall. Just a guess. That's a good guess and could be the reason. It's why i would feel better if an op run or two would get on board. The old weeklies are out. Not the new 46 day yet. My take. We warm for a week late December. Then it's s see saw pattern for a week. Then mid Jan I like the look. -nao. Ridge west trough east. That seems the dominant look the last two weeks. Problem is its way out there. If you want to drool look at the weekly control run. Wish I could show it. My god if your looking for a snow pattern that's it. Raging west based nao block. Like off the charts levels. H5 lows cutting across the midvatlantic every few days. The snowfall isn't out yet but it's going to be massive on that run based on the h5. I saved one frame where there is a block to a level I've not seen since 2010 and a pv level h5 low right over us. Anyone wondering why this pattern is a struggle despite true Arctic air only need look at that and know that's what we want and can see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 That's a good guess and could be the reason. It's why i would feel better if an op run or two would get on board. The old weeklies are out. Not the new 46 day yet. My take. We warm for a week late December. Then it's s see saw pattern for a week. Then mid Jan I like the look. -nao. Ridge west trough east. That seems the dominant look the last two weeks. Problem is its way out there. If you want to drool look at the weekly control run. Wish I could show it. My god if your looking for a snow pattern that's it. Raging west based nao block. Like off the charts levels. H5 lows cutting across the midvatlantic every few days. The snowfall isn't out yet but it's going to be massive on that run based on the h5. I saved one frame where there is a block to a level I've not seen since 2010 and a pv level h5 low right over us. Anyone wondering why this pattern is a struggle despite true Arctic air only need look at that and know that's what we want and can see the differences. Link to this?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are decent. Week 3 is the worst pattern. I'm not sure I buy it to be honest. Not saying that it should be a great period or anything. Just questioning having such + height anomalies in the east. Beyond week 3 looks fine. Not great but definitely typical winter stuff vs torch. Pretty similar to what we are seeing now but better ridge placement in the west/ak at times. Still a fairly strong -NAO signal but we've seen a lot of that lately. For those who have wxbell...check out the control run h5 anoms @ d33. LOL. Wouldn't that be something. Ninjad me. But it seems we are on the same page lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Link to this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk On wxbell it's all the way on the right under the Cfs. Says euro weeklies. The 46 day is the the newer version but it's not out yet will be tonight sometime. The control is drool worthy. The general heights align well enough on the mean to tell me it has some support in the clusters as well. Have to remember there will be divergent members so the signal on a mean that far out will be muted. Overall I'm happy with the run. Way too far out to get excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 New 46 day is out now as well as snow means. Control snowfall is around 18" with most of it falling the last two weeks during that period alluded to above. Weekly mean is 8" for DC. About 12" up here. Since that takes us through mid January that's workable but certainly not exciting. Kinda climo ish. But the pattern looks good where it leaves off so perhaps were back to a back loaded winter again. Lol if after all the early winter calls it goes that way. New 56 day is mostly in the same idea. Relaxes from about dec 22-Jan 9. Not a super torch but not a good look either. After Jan 9 things look good and at the end it's about to unleash hell with an arctic blast coming down from west Canada only with a -nao to get it into the east. Of course we're talking stupid crazy range so meh. I guess it's better then then if it had a torch in January. And if we're gonna get a perfect pattern having it come mid January into feb is probably a good thing. Looking on the bright side. Back to tracking gradient storms in a fast moving zonal pattern where the only thing we really have going for us is the Arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I suppose it's possible that the GEFS resolution is playing a factor. We're walking a line with most of these events. The courser resolution could potentially be skewing output in our favor when in reality the storm tracks/progression don't easily support large snowfall. Just a guess. I figured out the problem with the gefs snow mean. It's counting freezing rain as snow. The most obvious example is e13 on the 18z. It drops about a foot of "snow" day 11 but when you look at the actual precip, low, and precip type plots it's obviously not snow. There are a few others doing it too. The snow algorithms are off. It's counting anything that falls with a surface below freezing as snow. Odd since the precip type plots have it right. It's almost as if they wanted snowfall maps to be skewed snowy. I mean jb would never do something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Finally had a minute to dig into the overnight ensembles. Mean snowfall ticked back up on the GEFS on both 0z then again 6z and is now back about where it was with the crazy weenie 12z run yesterday with about 5-10" across the region SE to NW. Euro mean ticked up about 1/2" and is now around 3-6" across the region from SE to NW. Looking into specifics though shows some more meaningful takeaways. First the mean snowfall increases dramatically as you head north of our region. That indicates to me our bigger problem is going to be systems tracking to our north not suppression. There are several waves were talking about here, maybe as many as 6 in the next 2 weeks, and of course its very possible that one of these stays weak and gets suppressed south of us. But if we end up with no snow at the end of this pattern my guess is it will be because the majority of the systems went north of us not south. The other take away is even the GEFS with its healthy snowfall mean gets there through chaos. The individual members disagree completely on where the snow comes from. A few of them get snow snow into our area with the Monday/Tuesday wave. A few more focus on the mid week stuff. A few hit with the 12/17 storm. Still more have something in the 12/19-20 is timeframe and then a couple have something towards xmas eve. There is no single event that is high probability where a majority show a hit. So we are talking about 5 or 6 opportunities but each taken individually is low probability. My take would be odds would favor one of these to produce at least some snow across the area. Odds improve the further NW in our region you are obviously. If we are lucky we could get multiple hits. Most of the ensembles that show big totals get there by several moderate hits, not one big storm. So with some luck we could be talking 3 snows here. Of course there are a few members where we throw snake eyes and get shut out. So that is there too. As has been said the way each f these systems is shifting around run to run and within the run on the ensembles means we are talking short lead times to get details. I have not even begun to look at specifics on the Monday thing yet. It would not take much adjustment to turn that into a legit event for our area. Stuff after that is still way out in this pattern, especially when each wave will effect the events behind it. Christ, man. Paragraphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are decent. Week 3 is the worst pattern. I'm not sure I buy it to be honest. Not saying that it should be a great period or anything. Just questioning having such + height anomalies in the east. Beyond week 3 looks fine. Not great but definitely typical winter stuff vs torch. Pretty similar to what we are seeing now but better ridge placement in the west/ak at times. Still a fairly strong -NAO signal but we've seen a lot of that lately. For those who have wxbell...check out the control run h5 anoms @ d33. LOL. Wouldn't that be something. Elaborate?! I'm a non WxBell person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 36 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Elaborate?! I'm a non WxBell person Feb 2010 like blocking. H5 trough right over us. It's about as perfect a look as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS is showing major ice storm possibilities next weekend. If you want to see what CAD looks like on the GFS, this is a good run to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS is showing major ice storm possibilities next weekend. If you want to see what CAD looks like on the GFS, this is a good run to look at! Euro big snow and ice next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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