midatlanticweather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Man 500 MB heights next week! BRRR! Cold dry though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Woof (for cold). Ian's nightmare. Unless we get snow out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Well this is laughable. eta: screenshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Would be perfect to lay down a fresh blanket of white to usher in that airmass. Fantasy range continues the theme of big highs dropping out of Western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 41 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Well this is laughable. eta: screenshot Well that's...strange. Given that there have been several indications of some serious cold right through the period those indices show, something doesn't seem quite right. If you were to show me a -PNA/+NAO and nothing else, I would have never expected to see any model dumping Arctic cold on us in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Numerical indices can be misleading. Its a much better practice to just look at h5 and MSLP anomalies and forget about the #s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Not sure what it means, but big jog back on GEFS means for DC. Someone can offer deeper analysis :/Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think it means nothing will come easy for us this winter per usual. It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 42 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think it means nothing will come easy for us this winter per usual. It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 31st It's a northern stream pattern coming up. Yea, we can have a 13/14 or a post vday 15 but the reality is that northern stream storms are dicey here. They almost always will be. Thats mostly why I went low in the contest. Even though the nina is fizzling, snow ops are most likely reserved for NS events. We have had prolific luck lately but that isnt normal for us. If we do get a region wide 2-4" in the next 2 weeks then I will consider the period a big success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 19 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not sure what it means, but big jog back on GEFS means for DC. Someone can offer deeper analysis :/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk After several runs in the right direction the 18z gefs was a step in the wrong direction. Several more members went from hits to misses. That simple. I'm not wasting my time over analyzing an 18z run. See what tonight's runs do. If your looking for analysis the one thing I will ask is on all 3 ensemble suites ggem gfs eps the snowfall increases dramatically as you go just to our north. There honesty isn't much indication that suppression should be our primary worry. Yes there could be a weak wave somewhere within this pattern that slides south. But by far the guidance indicates our bigger problem is going to be getting the more significant systems to stay under us. We should be rooting the boundary to get as far south as possible at this point and hope one of these systems trends south as we get closer. They are all close enough that one should given they are going to shift around some and it's unlikely they all shift the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 hours ago, BTRWx said: Check Fredericksburg. 12UT Euro deterministic for Fredericksburg: 0.02" on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Is it me or has the GFS trended progressively amplified since 6z for mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yup, totally different solution and the "too much of a good thing" I was talking about earlier. Cuts west of us with a much more amplified wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: 12UT Euro deterministic for Fredericksburg: 0.02" on Wednesday 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: 12UT Euro deterministic for Fredericksburg: 0.02" on Wednesday Thanks, I can't believe I'm just seeing that I've been misinterpreting the primary source euro maps as precip extrapolation. After looking closer, those yellows and greens are actually wind speeds according to the key! Why do they have to be so secret about their data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Canadian caved in a big way in terms of Sunday/Monday...much more amped like EURO. I can see how this December is going to go :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Yup, totally different solution and the "too much of a good thing" I was talking about earlier. Cuts west of us with a much more amplified wave At a quick glance I liked the gfs run. Lots of close calls. The waves are bouncing around every run so having a bunch showing hits now is pointless anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Canadian caved in a big way in terms of Sunday/Monday...much more amped like EURO. I can see how this December is going to go :/ Well.. at least it isn't going like last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Not much to complain about with the 00Z runs. Both the GFS and Euro show an active pattern that put us in the ball game for our chances at snow. Mondays system at this point looks on track to at least provide mood flacks into the cities if not a light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Considering the next 10 days will probably keep us busy tracking threats the long range forecast will probably not get as much play. But looking at the 15 day EPS vs. the GEFS there are some major differences between the 2. The EPS puts the whole CONUS into a torch where as the GEFS has below normal in the northern tier into east and warm in the southwest. Really like the look on the GEFS. A well placed trough in the east, ridging pressing into Greenland from the east. With troughiness extending into the 50/50 region. Pac and west look good as well. Ridging extending up into northwest Canada and a trough extending into Alaska and the Aleutians. That set up won't deliver the brutal cold but will deliver cold nether the less with a north west flow into the east. But 15 days so.... Guess this explains DT's call for a warm Christmas. DT loves himself some Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6z op run shows close calls either way for winter weather on the 15th; 17th; and the 20th. Very active pattern for sure. Probably have to wait to be no more than a few days away to pin things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z op run shows close calls either way for winter weather on the 15th; 17th; and the 20th. Very active pattern for sure. Probably have to wait to be no more than a few days away to pin things down. The run puts a new twist on the Tue night/wed storm. Leaves energy back after the initial storm runs into the Lakes and sends an impulse up into our region along the cold front. Not that it means much with an op but it did get more aggressive with the snowfall maps through 10 days, especially just north and west of the cities. And the 15 day snowfall maps? Nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Its going to be a short lead time winter. It won't be tracking storms from 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Is that a possible Clipper set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 0z gfs has highs never getting out of the 30's through day 10 starting tommorow for up here. Euro is very similar with only one day hitting 40 through day 10. If this really goes down that way that's got to be real rare for mid December. You got to love our snow chances coming up. 06z runs suggest similar. For what its worth; 06z GFS has snow/sleet overnight Sunday into Monday. Maybe we can get a dusting or so out of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, H2O said: Its going to be a short lead time winter. It won't be tracking storms from 7 days out. Agree. Days 5+ have been pretty volatile for the past month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Agree. Days 5+ have been pretty volatile for the past month or so. So many moving parts. Progressive. Tracking is simpler when we have blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Do we have any CAD on Sunday and Monday?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Per the latest gfs, it looks like several possible chances. Euro is a tad different, but close enough to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Do we have any CAD on Sunday and Monday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No, leftover cold low levels that will be getting scoured with return flow behind a departing high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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