eurojosh Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we are in midseason form. Deep analysis of the euro day 10 Also, you are here sounding skeptical. Another sign that winter is upon us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ji said: we are in midseason form. Deep analysis of the euro day 10 I train in the off season and never miss the OTA's. I'm like the Larry Fitzgerald of weather weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: DT mentions cold pattern breaks Xmas weekend. That would figure if true. I'd rather have it warm until then. It's hard to say many Meteorologists have said the cold pattern would break sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: You say that now because due to your specific location you probably fear cutters in a cold pattern less then suppression, but in the end if you get a driving rainstorm that snows 50 miles north of you, you probably won't feel any better then a storm that misses you 20 miles to the south. What I mean is that I would rather it be 55 and sunny than 25 and dry. The first offers no chance, the latter gives you what if. Also, I can't wait to read up and see what the driver of 3 new pages of replies was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GEFS run has me salivating a little bit. At least it appears certain we are going to have the cold air in place. I think the odds are decent for a front end thumper or two over the next couple of weeks. The GFS is keying on the southern SW for the mid week thing. I always hate seeing the LP over the lakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I've become convince that a -NAO exists only in textbooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Kind of weird to see the pattern being described as both zonal and Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, dallen7908 said: Kind of weird to see the pattern being described as both zonal and Arctic. It's just mediarologists throwing terms out to gain ratings. This is pattern is just fast moving zonal flow with a few glancing blows of cP air. It's not until you see -25 or -30 showing up at 850 that you can call consider it a true arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I've become convince that a -NAO exists only in textbooks. I've become convinceD I should ignore your posts. Obligatory topical content: it's been less then a year since we had one of our top 3 region wide HECS helped by a -nao. Seriously I know it's still preseason kinda but that was jv stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is flurries with the non-wave mid next week. This looks like much more than flurries to me. (From the public site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I've become convinceD I should ignore your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 In school, we were instructed to call air masses with 500-1000 hPa thicknesses of less than 498 dm Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 The GFS has been better than the Euro with systems out in time. It said no to the Tuesday deal about 48 hours before the Euro finally dropped it's snow forecast (out here). There was another recent example as well but I can't remember it. This whole Sun through next Sat deal is going to be a good one on one test of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The GFS has been better than the Euro with systems out in time. It said no to the Tuesday deal about 48 hours before the Euro finally dropped it's snow forecast (out here). There was another recent example as well but I can't remember it. This whole Sun through next Sat deal is going to be a good one on one test of the two. That's if they both hold, which we all know they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 EPS mean is pretty lean on snow but there are a few members with what looks like good snow. The OP looks like snow is pretty close a couple of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: That's if they both hold, which we all know they won't. Yeah, if they both fold, no comparison possible. But if we get much of anything for either period, then the Euro loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 It's a pretty big discrepancy for 4.5-5 days out in time. Perhaps it just underscores the delicate nature of each event......subtle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The EURO gives DCA 0.01" for the mid-week event; so it's forecast to be a non-event at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Euro ens pretty sweet on the 17-19th. Mix of good and bad tracks but lots of snowy ones either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: The EURO gives DCA 0.01" for the mid-week event; so it's forecast to be a non-event at that location. Check Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens pretty sweet on the 17-19th. Mix of good and bad tracks but lots of snowy ones either way. There are so many members in that ensemble that it's better, in some ways, to do what you did and look at members. The mean snow wasn't impressive, but quite a few of the members are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 In terms of the mean, the EPS likes snow after D10. Considerable jump in the mean snowfall for DC from D11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are so many members in that ensemble that it's better, in some ways, to do what you did and look at members. The mean snow wasn't impressive, but quite a few of the members are. I thought the mean snowfall was very impressive. Biggest run of the year so far. Maybe by a good margin. At least around the cities burbs. I don't track your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are so many members in that ensemble that it's better, in some ways, to do what you did and look at members. The mean snow wasn't impressive, but quite a few of the members are. Eps mean has been the stingier of the 2 all along. It jumped up a bit overnight and held this run. Dca went from 3 to 3.5. Bwi went from 3.5 to 4. Up my way I went from 5.5 to 5. Overall noise. The details are more telling. Eps has no love for the first two waves day 6-10 but really likes the day 10-12 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Eps mean has been the stingier of the 2 all along. It jumped up a bit overnight and held this run. Dca went from 3 to 3.5. Bwi went from 3.5 to 4. Up my way I went from 5.5 to 5. Overall noise. The details are more telling. Eps has no love for the first two waves day 6-10 but really likes the day 10-12 period. Ahhhh... The 10 day storm... we never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 After going back over the gefs the eps might even be more bullish on that day 10-12 period. The higher mean on the gefs is due to several members hitting on the day 6-8 period as well. If you just look at day 10-12 the eps is about as bullish as your going to see on that kind of lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Ahhhh... The 10 day storm... we never learn. I guess it's worth saying this for the people unfamiliar with what's going on here. We are analyzing the guidance. That's not the same as making a forecast. I haven't seen anyone make a forecast other then to say the pattern is favorable for some snow in the next two weeks. Analyzing a model run and making a forecast based on it are two very different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the mean snowfall was very impressive. Biggest run of the year so far. Maybe by a good margin. At least around the cities burbs. I don't track your area. His area and mine lost a tiny bit off the mean mostly due to the eps having no love in the day 6-10 period where last night a few hits added to the mean for him and me. Overall though I see this run as a positive even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: After going back over the gefs the eps might even be more bullish on that day 10-12 period. The higher mean on the gefs is due to several members hitting on the day 6-8 period as well. If you just look at day 10-12 the eps is about as bullish as your going to see on that kind of lead. Good points Hoffman. Long leads will almost never produce maximum potential scenarios. Remember that an ensemble is a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS still looks meh for Sunday-Monday to me. Meh is better than nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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