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December Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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19 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Looks like my statement was wrong about the GEFS. I was trying to infer stuff from the stormvista spaghetti plots and didn't see any clearly defined wave. I should have looked at the WXBell site. 

 

You gave me mild angina when you said no support from GEFS.  

I said angina folks.  Look it up.  

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If Wes gave me that, we'd be on some daytime talk show instead of talking about a mid week snow threat.  

To keep this weather related, I think mid week sets up an even bigger threat, IMO.

:lol: 

I'm relying on Andy sending me info, work is too hectic at the moment for me to follow along. 

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40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeniest GEFS run of the season by far. The 6" mean has hit DC before but it was skewed by 1-2 giants in the mix. Not this run though. Spread nicely. 

 

weeniegefs.JPG

Definitely a positive gefs run. The snow is spread out across 4 waves in the 6-14 day period. The most favorable being the one next week being discussed. Some members manage multiple hits and thus the impressive totals. The best sign in only 4/20 manage to miss with all 4. I would say our odds of cashing in on at least one of these opportunities is looking good. 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just a slight difference between the major globals for Sunday/Monday.  12z Euro has a 994mb low over Indianapolis Monday morning.  

Eta...that's a huge difference from it's own 0z run.  

This model mayhem could be a good thing.  At least it keeps it interesting. :yikes:

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16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 


Would that snow in DC change to ice/rain in this scenario or would it end up sticking as snow? Seems like CAD could hold there.

 

Mid levels are eroding the whole time so it's not really cad more than it takes time to scour a cold air mass. Surface and 850 winds are southerly and it's an elongated low pressure with 2 centers (one @ the KY/OH border and another north of the great lakes. HP is off the coast by 240. That's what makes it a tricky setup on the model. My take is it would be a changeover sometime after 240 but the precip could shutoff before. Who knows. Just another model run either way. 

 

If you want to watch trends that can help, look for weaker LP around the lakes/northward (or none at all) and stronger in the TN valley. That would make a big difference. Or the HP placement to the NE. The slower that exits the coast, the better off for sure. 

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27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mid levels are eroding the whole time so it's not really cad more than it takes time to scour a cold air mass. Surface and 850 winds are southerly and it's an elongated low pressure with 2 centers (one @ the KY/OH border and another north of the great lakes. HP is off the coast by 240. That's what makes it a tricky setup on the model. My take is it would be a changeover sometime after 240 but the precip could shutoff before. Who knows. Just another model run either way. 

 

If you want to watch trends that can help, look for weaker LP around the lakes/northward (or none at all) and stronger in the TN valley. That would make a big difference. Or the HP placement to the NE. The slower that exits the coast, the better off for sure. 

we are in midseason form. Deep analysis of the euro day 10

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