yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup, was just noting that. Pure cold/snow event. And yes, definitely noticed the s/w in the mix. I'm good with what's depicted, but could turn out better. But we don't want too much of a good thing. Yup... decent lil event next Wed night into Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 240... hmmm... decent High in prime position with CAD showing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 240... hmmm... decent High in prime position with CAD showing up... That storm continues to "adjust" south on the GFS the last few runs. Given the type of cold were going to be dealing with that shouldn't be surprising. Last nights Euro was about to give us a pretty good snow where it ended day 10 from that system. Its definitely one to watch, after the wave mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda stoked to see you interested this far out. Definitely liking this one now. I'm just looking for something to write about. Still could miss us to the south with a weaker upper level trough and it's not a system likely to produce a big snow but in December we tak what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 240... hmmm... decent High in prime position with CAD showing up... Snow to ice at 252... we take and run... back to snow at 264... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, usedtobe said: I'm just looking for something to write about. Still could miss us to the south with a weaker upper level trough and it's not a system likely to produce a big snow but in December we tak what we can get. I think we would all take a 1-2" and run with it from that type of system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: Snow to ice at 252... we take and run GFS op sucks for details beyond 240. The resolution changes. You'll always see weird steps between the 240/252 panels. Not that ops are that great beyond 5 days either way. @psuhoffman The most encouraging part of what is being advertised for the 17-19th period is we don't need to thread jack or luck into anything. Failure seems most likely to come from lucking out of precip and not details like track and such. Northern stream stuff is usually not particularly kind here so even a modest event would be a big score imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Snow to ice at 252... we take and run... back to snow at 264... interesting That would be 1-3" followed by a pretty nasty ice event. The snow at the end is just snowshowers with the frontal passage. At this range its all silly but thats what this run shows as is. It will change a dozen times by then, and the wave in front influences what that storm will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I will be writing an outlook tomorrow for the midweek into Saturday time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS op sucks for details beyond 240. The resolution changes. You'll always see weird steps between the 240/252 panels. Not that ops are that great beyond 5 days either way. @psuhoffman The most encouraging part of what is being advertised for the 17-19th period is we don't need to thread jack or luck into anything. Failure seems most likely to come from lucking out of precip and not details like track and such. Northern stream stuff is usually not particularly kind here so even a modest event would be a big score imo. Yup, was about to mention that..after 240 forget it (not that we should be counting on a 240 hour forecast anyway). But the resolution drops and CAD usually falls apart immediately. Not really too much to hate from this 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I will be writing an outlook tomorrow for the midweek into Saturday time range. Post of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just nice to see heights get pumped up out west like I was wishcasting it to do yesterday. Finally something to buckle the flow a little across the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know, I know, Canadian, but it shows a nice little deal Sunday/Monday. Maybe that can trend better too. Little? lol Euro moved in that direction last night but the primary north still screws everything up. GEM keeps it all under us. It's on an island there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I will be writing an outlook tomorrow for the midweek into Saturday time range. This post should be pinned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know, I know, Canadian, but it shows a nice little deal Sunday/Monday. Maybe that can trend better too. Um... try again lol... its like a 2-5 incher EDIT: Bob Chill with the ninja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, was about to mention that..after 240 forget it (not that we should be counting on a 240 hour forecast anyway). But the resolution drops and CAD usually falls apart immediately. Not really too much to hate from this 12z run. Yea that truncation screws things up quite often. We have now had several encouraging runs of the ops and ens models in a row, that is a good sign. Any significant warm up keeps getting pushed further back in time into the "total WAG" model range and that is encouraging also. I am becoming more optimistic we see some meaningful snow by xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Little? lol Euro moved in that direction last night but the primary north still screws everything up. GEM keeps it all under us. It's on an island there. I forgot how much of a weenie model the GGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea that truncation screws things up quite often. We have now had several encouraging runs of the ops and ens models in a row, that is a good sign. Any significant warm up keeps getting pushed further back in time into the "total WAG" model range and that is encouraging also. I am becoming more optimistic we see some meaningful snow by xmas. Agreed...almost time to get the band back together again. If we can hold onto a solution for more than 2 or 3 days that is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I forgot how much of a weenie model the GGEM is. Here comes model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agreed...almost time to get the band back together again. If we can hold onto a solution for more than 2 or 3 days that is.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we7UfubNeqM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Is that snow I see on my first week there? Please let it be true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Little? lol Euro moved in that direction last night but the primary north still screws everything up. GEM keeps it all under us. It's on an island there. Slow down the 50/50 and let a bit more confluence build and trap the departing high a little more then bingo bango. *not saying it will happen but when you look at the GEM you HAVE to hype it up I should be banned for giving any weenie hope that this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, H2O said: Slow down the 50/50 and let a bit more confluence build and trap the departing high a little more then bingo bango. *not saying it will happen but when you look at the GEM you HAVE to hype it up I should be banned for giving any weenie hope that this could happen. When the Euro comes in looking like this, I'll remember this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Slow down the 50/50 and let a bit more confluence build and trap the departing high a little more then bingo bango. *not saying it will happen but when you look at the GEM you HAVE to hype it up I should be banned for giving any weenie hope that this could happen. I would love for another model to agree with the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: When the Euro comes in looking like this, I'll remember this. MY guess is the euro will not like the GGEM look and will be flatter with the GFS Thursday/Friday wave. The GEFS overall desn't give it a lot of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GEFS looking pretty darn good with the midweek wave. Spread aside, decent support at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, yoda said: I would love for another model to agree with the GGEM Just wait until it's in range for the 72-84h NAM...then we're in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS looking pretty darn good with the midweek wave. Spread aside, decent support at range. Looks like my statement was wrong about the GEFS. I was trying to infer stuff from the stormvista spaghetti plots and didn't see any clearly defined wave. I should have looked at the WXBell site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS looking pretty darn good with the midweek wave. Spread aside, decent support at range. Yes, indeed. Looks like about half a dozen members that are either good or would be good in subsequent time panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes, indeed. Looks like about half a dozen members that are either good or would be good in subsequent time panels. TT low location plots show it the best. Not a bad TN valley track for the members that have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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