December Med/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is reading between the lines tonight. We could even get lucky with waa precip with the storm after the front. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is reading between the lines tonight. We could even get lucky with waa precip with the storm after the front. 

That wave the middle of next week could be our first legit threat. 

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wave the middle of next week could be our first legit threat. 

Yea, sure looks like the first real shot at all snow if anything falls. Euro op had the same general idea. I could see some sort of ice event down the line too. Like you said earlier, a big cold air mass is heavy and sluggish. Win, lose, or draw...we're finally getting kinda close to being in the game. 

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, sure looks like the first real shot at all snow if anything falls. Euro op had the same general idea. I could see some sort of ice event down the line too. Like you said earlier, a big cold air mass is heavy and sluggish. Win, lose, or draw...we're finally getting kinda close to being in the game. 

Guess I'm staying up for the euro.  I need something to fantasize about 

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Guess I'm staying up for the euro.  I need something to fantasize about 

Lol

I'm still up so...what a weird hobby. 

Gefs was very stormy (and snowy). Even if the euro lays an egg tonight its just a matter of time before something pops. I'm becoming more bullish on measurable every day. 

[Heisy]

Highzenberg here, 

 

MUCH better Day 8-10 500mb look on tonight's 00z EURO. 

[Heisy]

Looks like verbatim there is a nice setup for an overrunning type winter storm Day 10

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Can anyone tell me how to get to the panel on wxbell that shows all the member low locations for the ensembles?

[psuhoffman]

Not shocking if as we get closer guidance sees more snow threats. There are several things that could work in our favor.  A system could pop up spaced close enough behind a cold front to stay under us. One of these systems could end up weaker and suddenly there are several waves riding a boundary south of us instead of one low cutting. Or as models see the depth of the cold the whole baroclinic zone could adjust south. The snow has been there just a little to our north. Bottom line is put some of the coldest air in our region and suddenly we have several paths to victory instead of needing some perfect setup. 

[poolz1]

@Thanatos_I_Am

ECMWF

+ EPS Precip & MSLP -> CONUS   

GEFS

Tropical Low Locations

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not shocking if as we get closer guidance sees more snow threats. There are several things that could work in our favor.  A system could pop up spaced close enough behind a cold front to stay under us. One of these systems could end up weaker and suddenly there are several waves riding a boundary south of us instead of one low cutting. Or as models see the depth of the cold the whole baroclinic zone could adjust south. The snow has been there just a little to our north. Bottom line is put some of the coldest air in our region and suddenly we have several paths to victory instead of needing some perfect setup. 

Suppression is always lurking under these conditions.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Suppression is always lurking under these conditions.

New England's suppression is our snowstorm.  Our suppression is Roanoke's snowstorm.  If you look at the large scale pattern differences between a snowstorm that hits us and one that misses us by 100 miles in either direction the differences are way too minor to be worrying about that kind of thing from the range we are at now.  That is a short term inside 72 hours type thing, and in some rare cases like January 2000 and 2010 a nowcast type thing.  Even in a good pattern we need a little luck as well.  People forget about the role chaos plays in all of this.  For every great pattern we remember that produced like Feb 2010 there were numerous others that simply didn't work out like December 2010.  But worrying about that kind of stuff is getting way ahead of ourselves.  Right now we are looking at getting the general pattern favorable so we are at least in the game.  We can worry about specific plays later.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

New England's suppression is our snowstorm.  Our suppression is Roanoke's snowstorm.  If you look at the large scale pattern differences between a snowstorm that hits us and one that misses us by 100 miles in either direction the differences are way too minor to be worrying about that kind of thing from the range we are at now.  That is a short term inside 72 hours type thing, and in some rare cases like January 2000 and 2010 a nowcast type thing.  Even in a good pattern we need a little luck as well.  People forget about the role chaos plays in all of this.  For every great pattern we remember that produced like Feb 2010 there were numerous others that simply didn't work out like December 2010.  But worrying about that kind of stuff is getting way ahead of ourselves.  Right now we are looking at getting the general pattern favorable so we are at least in the game.  We can worry about specific plays later.

Agree.  However, I'd rather miss huge than miss small.

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Agree.  However, I'd rather miss huge than miss small.

 

You say that now because due to your specific location you probably fear cutters in a cold pattern less then suppression, but in the end if you get a driving rainstorm that snows 50 miles north of you, you probably won't feel any better then a storm that misses you 20 miles to the south. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Suppression is always lurking under these conditions.

This is my worry. The GFS last night was loaded with potential, but it had that look potential supression if anything were to go wrong.  That high pressing down was nice tho. Guess I'd rather have cold and dry vs warm and wet 

[yoda]

06z GFS looked decent enough for some WAA snows Day 10/11... ofc most is along I-81 corridor and it is a snow to rain system... but 2-4" would be fine with me

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is my worry. The GFS last night was loaded with potential, but it had that look potential supression if anything were to go wrong.  That high pressing down was nice tho. Guess I'd rather have cold and dry vs warm and wet 

I am NOT discounting suppression as a possible problem for any one given storm.  But the pattern we are entering appears to be very active, with systems riding west to east along the arctic boundary quite regularly.  In that type of pattern without any real atlantic blocking at the moment, I think we are better off getting the baroclinic zone as far south as possible (within reason of course).  Yes one or two waves could stay south but by the time this pattern breaks down towards xmas probably, if we get that boundary 100-200 miles south of where models were showing it the last few days, I think we will end up ok.  One or two of those systems should work out at least for some snow. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am NOT discounting suppression as a possible problem for any one given storm.  But the pattern we are entering appears to be very active, with systems riding west to east along the arctic boundary quite regularly.  In that type of pattern without any real atlantic blocking at the moment, I think we are better off getting the baroclinic zone as far south as possible (within reason of course).  Yes one or two waves could stay south but by the time this pattern breaks down towards xmas probably, if we get that boundary 100-200 miles south of where models were showing it the last few days, I think we will end up ok.  One or two of those systems should work out at least for some snow. 

Have to agree with you on this one. Just as the models often underestimate CAD in the medium/long range, they seem to do the same with the northern progression of the mid and upper level warming.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is my worry. The GFS last night was loaded with potential, but it had that look potential supression if anything were to go wrong.  That high pressing down was nice tho. Guess I'd rather have cold and dry vs warm and wet 

I thought I would stay up for the euro...nope. Didn't miss anything exciting but overall things look pretty good. Especially the ensembles. There's 3 chances it seems in the next 12+/- days or so. The late sun/mon timeframe is trending a bit towards the possibility of a light WAA event with low pressure to the west. Much will hinge on how deep the cold is and that's not fully resolved and the evolution of the lp/front coming is even muddier. Over half the euro ens have at least a trace. Looking through the members is even more encouraging for chances at seeing snow fall from the sky. It's won't be a big deal either way and upside seems pretty limited but hey, snowTV is good with me. 

Once the front passes it's obviously the largest and coldest air mass of the season. During the period of the 13th-16th it looks like we have a shot at a weak wave. Probably just light overrunning. Doesn't look like a chance at amplification but hey, a half inch or inch or even 2 inches that stick on contact would be pretty nice. Hopefully something pops in the med range this weekend and we can track it. 

Lastly, the EPS and GEFS are really bullish on the 17th-19th. The cold hp is temporarily blocked by a departing 50/50. You can even see the CAD sig on the GEFS ens mean @ 10+. That's impressive:

 

Don't immediately jump to "oh noes...lakes low!". It probably won't matter as long as precip makes it here. That cold hp means business. A west track would work. Plus, there is a cluster of members that track under us or even redevelop at a favorable location. EPS looks very much like the GEFS but with less of a lakes low sig and more of a TN valley look. Same CAD bend in the isobars. 

 

I'm feeling very optimistic that we are on the board in the next 2 weeks. We also have a reasonable chance at multiple events albeit 2 look light at best. 

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am NOT discounting suppression as a possible problem for any one given storm.  But the pattern we are entering appears to be very active, with systems riding west to east along the arctic boundary quite regularly.  In that type of pattern without any real atlantic blocking at the moment, I think we are better off getting the baroclinic zone as far south as possible (within reason of course).  Yes one or two waves could stay south but by the time this pattern breaks down towards xmas probably, if we get that boundary 100-200 miles south of where models were showing it the last few days, I think we will end up ok.  One or two of those systems should work out at least for some snow. 

Hey trust me, I agree with you for the most part.  I was just agreeing with winterwx that if there is a hitch int he plan, that would be it.    I agree with yall that we'll probably back into something before Christmas.  

[Bob Chill]

I'll also add to my previous post that when this whole pattern change first appeared it looked rosier at distance than as we closed in. Our window of op kept getting pushed back. But that's to be expected going from warm to cold. It almost always happens that way during the early season. It takes a series of fronts to keep carving the baroclinic zone southward. Now that we are getting closer our window of op is staying static. This is a big deal. We could totally blow it of course but the window is coming. I expect op runs to start seriously playing with our emotions by the end of this weekend. Heck, maybe today. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought I would stay up for the euro...nope. Didn't miss anything exciting but overall things look pretty good. Especially the ensembles. There's 3 chances it seems in the next 12+/- days or so. The late sun/mon timeframe is trending a bit towards the possibility of a light WAA event with low pressure to the west. Much will hinge on how deep the cold is and that's not fully resolved and the evolution of the lp/front coming is even muddier. Over half the euro ens have at least a trace. Looking through the members is even more encouraging for chances at seeing snow fall from the sky. It's won't be a big deal either way and upside seems pretty limited but hey, snowTV is good with me. 

Once the front passes it's obviously the largest and coldest air mass of the season. During the period of the 13th-16th it looks like we have a shot at a weak wave. Probably just light overrunning. Doesn't look like a chance at amplification but hey, a half inch or inch or even 2 inches that stick on contact would be pretty nice. Hopefully something pops in the med range this weekend and we can track it. 

Lastly, the EPS and GEFS are really bullish on the 17th-19th. The cold hp is temporarily blocked by a departing 50/50. You can even see the CAD sig on the GEFS ens mean @ 10+. That's impressive:

 

Don't immediately jump to "oh noes...lakes low!". It probably won't matter as long as precip makes it here. That cold hp means business. A west track would work. Plus, there is a cluster of members that track under us or even redevelop at a favorable location. EPS looks very much like the GEFS but with less of a lakes low sig and more of a TN valley look. Same CAD bend in the isobars. 

 

I'm feeling very optimistic that we are on the board in the next 2 weeks. We also have a reasonable chance at multiple events albeit 2 look light at best. 

Good post.   I think this is the period that DT is honking about as well. 

[psuhoffman]

Agree with what was said above, the period from the middle of next week onward looks "interesting".  First there is that little wave.  Right now its a miss on the GFS/EC but that's actually ok because on both the little bit of south push it creates to the baroclinic zone behind it sets us up for something a couple days later.  That is one way to get it done in this pattern.  Yea the 6z GFS changes to rain but look at 240 before it truncates, 1040 High over Montreal, CAD setup, and currently some snow/ice all the way down into Georgia.  From that point even if the low goes to our west were looking at a pretty good thump snow and I doubt the low even does go that for west given the setup.  Euro has the setup as well and looks about to be pretty good if it went to day 11.  Ensembles are keying on that time period as well.  These details are silly at that range but the point being that one of these waves being suppressed actually still helps to set us up for something.  Each of these waves are going to play off each other and impact the eventual track and I doubt all of them are going to stay to our south. 

[yoda]

SnowTV perhaps late Sunday night into Monday morning on 12z GFS

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

SnowTV perhaps late Sunday night into Monday morning on 12z GFS

WAA shield has been shifting south on both the GFS and Euro in general the last couple days. Column is good. Won't be much of a big deal but it's the first thing in line to keep an eye on.  

[stormtracker]

GFS has a nice little event shaping up around mid week.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS has a nice little event shaping up around mid week.

It's the first time it's actually had a distinct shortwave too. I like cold dry powder. lol

 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the first time it's actually had a distinct shortwave too. I like cold dry powder. lol

 

Yup, was just noting that.  Pure cold/snow event.  And yes, definitely noticed the s/w in the mix.   I'm good with what's depicted, but could turn out better.  But we don't want too much of a good thing. 

[usedtobe]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS has a nice little event shaping up around mid week.

Yep I just e-mailed Jason about doing an article on the threat sometime later this week.  The models have been hinting at something in that time range for a couple of runs but the impulse on today's run is the best look so far.  Hope the Euro also looks like something.

[stormtracker]

Just now, usedtobe said:

Yep I just e-mailed Jason about doing an article on the threat sometime later this week.  The models have been hinting at something in that time range for a couple of runs but the impulse on today's run is the best look so far.  Hope the Euro also looks like something.

Kinda stoked to see you interested this far out.   Definitely liking this one now.