mappy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 that gif is super extra large. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, H2O said: No comments on the Euro agreeing with the GFS on ridging out west starting in a week or so? sounds great....just need some continuity and then we could be a sneaky start to winter next week. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, H2O said: No comments on the Euro agreeing with the GFS on ridging out west starting in a week or so? When are you talking about? I don't see much ridging. I see a little bump at about day 9 which gets beaten right back down. Pretty much straight zonal flow across the us with a bit of on and off troughing on the east coast. Am I looking at the right run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Question: What is causing the persistent low heights off the west coast of Canada? That seems to be a very stable feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Question: What is causing the persistent low heights off the west coast of Canada? That seems to be a very stable feature. Aluetian ridge basically. Persistent ridge = persistent trough downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When are you talking about? I don't see much ridging. I see a little bump at about day 9 which gets beaten right back down. Pretty much straight zonal flow across the us with a bit of on and off troughing on the east coast. Am I looking at the right run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Aluetian ridge basically. Persistent ridge = persistent trough downstream. What will it take to beat down that ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, H2O said: Yeah, that's the one I was looking at. Unfortunately it gets hammered right back down. Doesn't mean it's correct. Hopefully we can see some ridging out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, that's the one I was looking at. Unfortunately it gets hammered right back down. Doesn't mean it's correct. Hopefully we can see some ridging out there. The thing is that there really hasn't been any showing up on any previous runs. It's been flat. If we can get that set up shown I think a couple clippers are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, H2O said: The thing is that there really hasn't been any showing up on any previous runs. It's been flat. If we can get that set up shown I think a couple clippers are possible. I agree with that one. Previously it looked like someone drew those height lines with a ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree with that one. Previously it looked like someone drew those height lines with a ruler. College rule width to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What will it take to beat down that ridge? It's actually not a bad thing. It's the main reason why we are getting cold in our source region right now. Also fits cold enso climo so it's not a coincidence it's there or an unusual feature. The only thing lacking for a good pattern with the general setup is higher heights in the NAO region. That would suppress heights in the east. We can actually do ok with a -pna with some Atlantic help. Other things would be the ridge retros allowing a -EPO. Or the ridge rolls forward into the GOA. But for now we probably just have to see where we go from here. It's a prominent feature on all guidance and won't likely be going anywhere anytime soon. Just a few days ago ensembles were breaking it down with low heights all over AK. That would have been much worse but as expected guidance backed off on that idea. Time to ride the roller coaster and hope something works out...and pray for blocking to close the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Although it hasnt been discussed much, as i know some question its influence, the MJO looks like its strongly headed towards 8-1-2, and looks good for next 2 weeks, as it only briefly goes out before heading back (albeit not as strong of a signal, and way to far out to really think about. Bob, your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 hours ago, H2O said: remember when the vikings were undefeated? Haha, that was good! Well hey, the Cleveland Browns are like last December's utter failure here...going for the winless streak, trying to shoot the moon and go 0-16 this year! I think they can do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Haha, that was good! Well hey, the Cleveland Browns are like last December's utter failure here...going for the winless streak, trying to shoot the moon and go 0-16 this year! I think they can do it! Paying the 6 bucks to go see them play on Sunday, hope its snowing at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 One thing of interest on the EPS is that there is a small cluster of misses to the south. It's only been there the last 2 runs. This is a good thing imo. Late in the period is a relaxation across the conus but it's probably temporary. ALL of Canada is below normal and the Aleutian ridge is closed off with persistent cross polar flow. Not a great pattern but a lemonade one at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 51 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Although it hasnt been discussed much, as i know some question its influence, the MJO looks like its strongly headed towards 8-1-2, and looks good for next 2 weeks, as it only briefly goes out before heading back (albeit not as strong of a signal, and way to far out to really think about. Bob, your thoughts? That is actually a very good MJO forecast/signal for storms. I had not looked at the MJO yet this season. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing of interest on the EPS is that there is a small cluster of misses to the south. It's only been there the last 2 runs. This is a good thing imo. Late in the period is a relaxation across the conus but it's probably temporary. ALL of Canada is below normal and the Aleutian ridge is closed off with persistent cross polar flow. Not a great pattern but a lemonade one at least. I noticed that too. That is a good sign, esp in a pattern where we likely need something weakish to slide under us to get frozen. Seeing a complete consensus of cutters would be seriously depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Somewhat interesting to note that from this Friday through the end of the run, the 12z EPS has the 850 mb 0c line south of us, outside of maybe 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 For those that care... From DT: STILL SEEING STRONG SIGNAL OF 1ST SNOW/ ICE THREAT VA MD NC TN DEC 16-17 XMAS Week could be very cold -- MORE later this eevenig in the new edition of the next 3 weekends newsletter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18z GFS is nice and cold and.... boring Well... snow to rain maybe 264... and then another arctic blast to end the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 hours ago, H2O said: The thing is that there really hasn't been any showing up on any previous runs. It's been flat. If we can get that set up shown I think a couple clippers are possible. It has been showing up somewhat on the GEFS. Here it is from the 6z on 12/2. If it does in fact pop for a time, the Boise Idaho ridge spot is perfect for the trough axis where we are. It's enough to keep an eye on. I am getting interested in the mid month time frame for a vort to undercut our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 33 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS is nice and cold and.... boring Well... snow to rain maybe 264... and then another arctic blast to end the run You gotta read between the lines. First chance sometime around the 15th or so with a weak wave and then a few days later we could easily get a shot of WAA snow with a west track. Between the 14th and 18th looks like a fairly substantial push of cold that could have some legs. An airmass like that won't dislodge as easy as the 2 in front of it. EPS and GEFS are active during this period. This is encouraging for our region to get on the board. Got some time to waste beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, Snowlover33 said: Paying the 6 bucks to go see them play on Sunday, hope its snowing at least.. Well, if there's one thing that can go right at a Browns' game at this time of year, it would be a good chance of getting some lake effect snows! More on topic, there is definitely some good cold behind today's system...though cold and dry here of course. I honestly at this point don't know what to make of the longer range, even the ensembles have been all over the place. No good signal to latch on to. But there is a fair bit of cold air around, and I'm reasonably confident we get on the board this month...a big change from so many recent Decembers. By the way, is La Nina really much of a factor this year? I admit I haven't followed a huge amount of that discussion earlier in the fall, but what I did see pointed to a pretty weak Nina or nearly neutral? That may be way outdated information though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Somewhat interesting to note that from this Friday through the end of the run, the 12z EPS has the 850 mb 0c line south of us, outside of maybe 2-3 days. Are those the 2-3 days with precip, by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: You gotta read between the lines. First chance sometime around the 15th or so with a weak wave and then a few days later we could easily get a shot of WAA snow with a west track. Between the 14th and 18th looks like a fairly substantial push of cold that could have some legs. An airmass like that won't dislodge as easy as the 2 in front of it. EPS and GEFS are active during this period. This is encouraging for our region to get on the board. Got some time to waste beforehand. People forget that true arctic air often puts up more of a fight then models think from a week out. Most recent examples....back in feb 2015 I remember all the moaning "how can we go from near 0 to rain in 24 hours". In the end we got our second best region wide snowfall of the season from that. And that was with a low going to our northwest. Last year same thing and places south of DC got 8-10" of snow. Up here less snow but a pretty bad ice storm. Get the Arctic air in then let's see what actually happens. We're not in a hecs potential pattern but I think most of us would be happy with putting down some snowcover during the holiday period from a dirty storm and that's definitely on the table still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: You gotta read between the lines. First chance sometime around the 15th or so with a weak wave and then a few days later we could easily get a shot of WAA snow with a west track. Between the 14th and 18th looks like a fairly substantial push of cold that could have some legs. An airmass like that won't dislodge as easy as the 2 in front of it. EPS and GEFS are active during this period. This is encouraging for our region to get on the board. Got some time to waste beforehand. I went through those 12 hours at a time and was encouraged that almost every 12 hour period had a good number with precip, some snow some rain. With cold air seemingly close by for the whole run, I think that's a good sign. We are entering the period when I've been prone to say give me precip and I'll take my chances with type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Are those the 2-3 days with precip, by chance? Cold and dry, warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I know you are all aware of this but whenever I see a 10-day forecast for an exciting event, I keep reminding myself that Statistically, climatology is a better forecast than an operational forecast at 10 days lead; not only is a 10-day forecast without skill, but it is also biased towards the model's climatology, which differs from the actual climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 FWIW GEFS snow mean has trended better last three runs. I know, I know, it's a mean... but who cares good news is good.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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