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December Med/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Thanatos_I_Am

Thanatos_I_Am

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Like any other tool they are only useful if you know how to use them. Can you simply take the mean and think it's a forecast no. But as one more data point they are worth a glance to get an idea of trends. Plus if you actually look at how the mean is derived they give clues. Only a few show a total shutout. A few big hits bit they aren't the majority either. Lots of flawed storms but ones that have some frozen in them. That's a clue to what the gefs thinks the pattern is going to look like. Again they aren't meant to be a forecast just a tool to help get to a forecast. 

How are you looking at each member to the see the specifics?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

lol- ens went from cold to warm in the LR. Almost the entire conus is AN by then end of the run. Might have to throw some shorts in the wash for christmas. 

It's not common for the ens to jump so much every 12 hours so who knows. 

It lost the nao blocking and so the entire rest of the features shifted north several hundred miles. The old is locked up in Canada with pacific jet underneath. Only good thing would be the cold is right there ready when the pattern shifts again. I feel like we wasted 2 weeks of a decent upper air pattern simply getting cold into our part of the world.  As you pointed out the whole long range is volatile right now with huge shifts run to run. Anything past ten days is very low confidence. But overall the trends are bleeding the wrong way lately. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Could just hug the 6-10" snow on the control. Lol.  Forgetting the way way out there range the coming pattern seems to be gaining a consensus on both the gefs and eps. The majority show a little snow coming from mostly wet storms cutting west. But there are enough random hits mixed in the groups to hold out hope that something times up right and stays under us. But that seems a long shot not a probability right now. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am convinced a legit, useful -NAO is now almost exclusively digital. Models love to advertise it, but it rarely materializes in any meaningful way.

I agree. And it can only mean 1 thing. The next legit -NAO will be completely missed by models. So the fact that the EPS totally lost the -NAO idea means it's coming. Weenie logic is great isn't it?

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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Posted
33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It lost the nao blocking and so the entire rest of the features shifted north several hundred miles. The old is locked up in Canada with pacific jet underneath. Only good thing would be the cold is right there ready when the pattern shifts again. I feel like we wasted 2 weeks of a decent upper air pattern simply getting cold into our part of the world.  As you pointed out the whole long range is volatile right now with huge shifts run to run. Anything past ten days is very low confidence. But overall the trends are bleeding the wrong way lately. 

2 days ago all of the trends were good.

Nothing is reliable to the point that a definitive call can be made.

I think having a cold Canada is a very good thing for us.  The rest is a muddled mess.

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

I agree that using ind members for snow accum is useless unless you view them on a regular basis.  If you don't take them so literally, they can be useful.  They do ebb and flow just like any LR ensemble but blur your eyes a little, use them all season and I think they can be a legit tool when combined with other methods.

Ryan Maue's probability tool is a good go to for WxBell users.  Conus prob -> 24hr Snowfall Over 1".  At least for myself, this gives a better view of which systems and timeframes the ens are cluing in on.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Weeklies look..chaotic. Not very cold overall. EPac looks better, at least for a while. Flip a coin.

Yea, not good and not a disaster. Not a fan honestly. None of the looks are what we want to see for above normal snow chances. Pretty mundane and not inspiring. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, not good and not a disaster. Not a fan honestly. None of the looks are what we want to see for above normal snow chances. Pretty mundane and not inspiring. 

Yea a lot of meh. No periods that are flat oh no that looks awful but nothing that looks exciting either. There was one period early Jan that I could see potential. Other then that a lot of slightly below and slightly above normal with probably a flawed storm track. Of course there is a reason we only average 20" or so across much of the area. An average pattern just doesn't do it. We score most of our snow during the patterns where at least one of the major drivers lines up flush in our favor. People tend to worship the nao but the pacific can do it too like in 2014 and late in 2015. But if neither is lined up good it's really tough. The good news is the pattern looks kinda ambiguous and a small adjustment makes it favorable. It's not like we're staring a hopeless pattern in the face.  Things are still very much in doubt where we're heading this year. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The 46 day euro ensemble or "new weeklies" are out. They are pretty darn cold all the way to week 5.   The h5 heights don't seem to match though. Week 4 has pretty high heights yet very cold 2m. Overall I can't poo poo the cold but the h5 doesn't scream it's gonna snow either. Trough axis is a bit west of ideal week 1-2 then a bit north week 3. Week 4 is just wonky. Then there is the fact this was run of the 0z ensembles that were cold. Today's eps flipped anyways. Given the erratic nature of the eps lately these are probably useless. 

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Stormcatt

Stormcatt

Posted
Posted
The 46 day euro ensemble or "new weeklies" are out. They are pretty darn cold all the way to week 5.   The h5 heights don't seem to match though. Week 4 has pretty high heights yet very cold 2m. Overall I can't poo poo the cold but the h5 doesn't scream it's gonna snow either. Trough axis is a bit west of ideal week 1-2 then a bit north week 3. Week 4 is just wonky. Then there is the fact this was run of the 0z ensembles that were cold. Today's eps flipped anyways. Given the erratic nature of the eps lately these are probably useless. 


ate these on wxbell?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The 46 day euro ensemble or "new weeklies" are out. They are pretty darn cold all the way to week 5.   The h5 heights don't seem to match though. Week 4 has pretty high heights yet very cold 2m. Overall I can't poo poo the cold but the h5 doesn't scream it's gonna snow either. Trough axis is a bit west of ideal week 1-2 then a bit north week 3. Week 4 is just wonky. Then there is the fact this was run of the 0z ensembles that were cold. Today's eps flipped anyways. Given the erratic nature of the eps lately these are probably useless. 

Looking at the 7 day chunks, 2m temps look cold through most of the run. I don't put much stock in surface temps on long range(climate) models. The overall 500 height pattern does not look very cold (or snowy)  as we previously discussed.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at the 7 day chunks, 2m temps look cold through most of the run. I don't put much stock in surface temps on long range(climate) models. The overall 500 height pattern does not look very cold (or snowy)  as we previously discussed.

Overnight runs were uninspiring to say the least. At least they still leave the door open for us lucking into something. 

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

Its all fast flow.  Even though we get high lat blocking in AK all run long there is no buckling of the wavelengths.  Cold pours down from Canada into the rockies and by the time it gets to us it has modified.  We will be stuck in a battle zone.  Shots of cold every few days with SE ridge flexing in between.  Nothing gets a chance to ramp up because of the almost zonal flow across the US.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight runs were uninspiring to say the least. At least they still leave the door open for us lucking into something. 

Euro ens cold again even though h5 doesnt look impressive. Take a look at the 15 day mean hi/low bar charts. Weird. Seems like cross polar flow keeps a good supply of cold air to our north so I think that even with so so heght patterns that cold is easily available. Strange times ahead. Not sure what to compare it to irt previous winter patterns. 

 

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