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December Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I'm at about a 2 right now. I'm feeling good--we're staring at a pattern that should be conducive for both cold and winter weather chances, and the signal is there for a few potential events. I think most of us are in the same boat wrt temperament. 

We need things to come together since we're not near peak climo, and I think the "shifts" on the guidance are reflective of a pattern which bears potential during a time where more often than not we get porked. Overall, we're in good shape. 

Agreed. 12z much better than 6z run with enough cold air around and numerous chances. That's all we can ask for.

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EPS still has low heights near GOA towards the end of the run. Remains to be seen if this becomes a fixture or if we get some progression. Meanwhile it looks like the -NAO will at least keep us seasonable. I am not at all disappointed by what I am seeing in the means. I would be thrilled if we can be generally "normal" temp wise with a chance or 2 at some flakes before Xmas.

Yes you can put another one on the board WWL.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS still has low heights near GOA towards the end of the run. Remains to be seen if this becomes a fixture or if we get some progression. Meanwhile it looks like the -NAO will at least keep us seasonable. I am not at all disappointed by what I am seeing in the means. I would be thrilled if we can be generally "normal" temp wise with a chance or 2 at some flakes before Xmas.

Yes you can put another one on the board WWL.

The heights look higher in the GOA this run than the last run.

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I mean "in theory" nothing from a pay site should be posted without prior permission from the site owner. But it does seem WxBell images of non Euro models have been posted without much issue. It would be a question to clear up with the mods/admins. 

It's more of an ECMWF issue than a Weatherbell one.  They don't like most of their stuff being out there unless it's the most basic maps that you can get on the free sites.

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's more of an ECMWF issue than a Weatherbell one.  They don't like most of their stuff being out there unless it's the most basic maps that you can get on the free sites.

That makes sense. Yeah, I've seen lots of GFS WxBell stuff posted here with no issues.

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1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said:

no snow on either gfs or euro till at least the 15th probably longer than that, but lots of rain, enjoy the soggy conditions, waiting for this cold dec of JB to develop, and snow,  lol!!!

Isn't there another bridge you can go hangout under???  Actually check out the NYC winter thread. You would fit right in there. 

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For the most part the over night runs were cold/dry with brief periods of warm/wet. At least the Euro is now moving toward better ridging in the west and a deeper trough in the east in the extended going away from the flat zonal look it was advertising. Temps in the extended are responding showing seasonable to BN temps in the east//NE instead of the AN it had for a few runs. 

For whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much, the 12K Nam is getting a little more aggressive with snowfall tues. evening/night with 2 inches showing north and west of the cities. The new 4k NAM also is bullish on snow with 2 inches north and west with higher totals showing up in the favored locations. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised that some of the higher elevations do get a slushy inch but at this point I find it hard to believe we see the NAM totals verify.

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Ridging in AK stays in place until the end of the GFS.  It waxes and wanes a bit here and there so the PAC will do it's part for a while.  NAO gets beaten down some later on.  This could be a winter where we get help from the PAC for a bit then as it eases the NAO could help if it stays -

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5 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

no snow on either gfs or euro till at least the 15th probably longer than that, but lots of rain, enjoy the soggy conditions, waiting for this cold dec of JB to develop, and snow,  lol!!! west track predominates  !!

You're gonna keep on until you get 5 posted

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59 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For the most part the over night runs were cold/dry with brief periods of warm/wet. At least the Euro is now moving toward better ridging in the west and a deeper trough in the east in the extended going away from the flat zonal look it was advertising. Temps in the extended are responding showing seasonable to BN temps in the east//NE instead of the AN it had for a few runs. 

For whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much, the 12K Nam is getting a little more aggressive with snowfall tues. evening/night with 2 inches showing north and west of the cities. The new 4k NAM also is bullish on snow with 2 inches north and west with higher totals showing up in the favored locations. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised that some of the higher elevations do get a slushy inch but at this point I find it hard to believe we see the NAM totals verify.

Yeah, the NAM likes the snow potential but nothing else does.  The Euro had been pretty bullish for some snow out here for tomorrow until last nights run.

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