psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 hours ago, mdsnowlover said: compared to what was shown it is nothing!!! IMHO!! I do not think you know what that word means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 20 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think I'm at about a 2 right now. I'm feeling good--we're staring at a pattern that should be conducive for both cold and winter weather chances, and the signal is there for a few potential events. I think most of us are in the same boat wrt temperament. We need things to come together since we're not near peak climo, and I think the "shifts" on the guidance are reflective of a pattern which bears potential during a time where more often than not we get porked. Overall, we're in good shape. Agreed. 12z much better than 6z run with enough cold air around and numerous chances. That's all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Certainly like that 1050 coming out of Canada in the silly long range. That could keep us chilled for the holiday weekend. If it holds and if it's really that cold....forget It I know better. Too cold and dry isnt fun either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just like that the gefs drops the large area of low heights around AK late in the run. Good -nao to boot. If the euro wobbles then I'm going to take a break from thinking about where we are heading in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 So has winter been cancelled? I'm still seeing some digital snow on tropical tidbits. I'm going to see the Panthers play the Redskins on Monday, Dec 19th. Would be fun to watch in some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 EPS still has low heights near GOA towards the end of the run. Remains to be seen if this becomes a fixture or if we get some progression. Meanwhile it looks like the -NAO will at least keep us seasonable. I am not at all disappointed by what I am seeing in the means. I would be thrilled if we can be generally "normal" temp wise with a chance or 2 at some flakes before Xmas. Yes you can put another one on the board WWL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS still has low heights near GOA towards the end of the run. Remains to be seen if this becomes a fixture or if we get some progression. Meanwhile it looks like the -NAO will at least keep us seasonable. I am not at all disappointed by what I am seeing in the means. I would be thrilled if we can be generally "normal" temp wise with a chance or 2 at some flakes before Xmas. Yes you can put another one on the board WWL. The heights look higher in the GOA this run than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 37 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The heights look higher in the GOA this run than the last run. Its a tad better. Still a trough there but flatter this run. If its real, hopefully its temporary, but there seems to be a tendency for lower heights near AK overall this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I bit the bullet and finally bought wxbell. Am I allowed to post any EPS or ECMWF at all? (For future reference on this thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I bit the bullet and finally bought wxbell. Am I allowed to post any EPS or ECMWF at all? (For future reference on this thread) Not from WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not from WxBellSo this includes EPS maps? I've seen them previously on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: So this includes EPS maps? I've seen them previously on this thread. You can post anything from a free site. Not sure what you've seen. But pay euro data is supposedly off limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 You can post anything from a free site. Not sure what you've seen. But pay euro data is supposedly off limits.only the high resolution stuff is off limits from what I understand . Eps maps are posted all over the place daily Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Hey, you guys knock yourselves out. It's no skin off my back. Not sure what's so thrilling about EPS maps anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I mean "in theory" nothing from a pay site should be posted without prior permission from the site owner. But it does seem WxBell images of non Euro models have been posted without much issue. It would be a question to clear up with the mods/admins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I mean "in theory" nothing from a pay site should be posted without prior permission from the site owner. But it does seem WxBell images of non Euro models have been posted without much issue. It would be a question to clear up with the mods/admins. It's more of an ECMWF issue than a Weatherbell one. They don't like most of their stuff being out there unless it's the most basic maps that you can get on the free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's more of an ECMWF issue than a Weatherbell one. They don't like most of their stuff being out there unless it's the most basic maps that you can get on the free sites. That makes sense. Yeah, I've seen lots of GFS WxBell stuff posted here with no issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 no snow on either gfs or euro till at least the 15th probably longer than that, but lots of rain, enjoy the soggy conditions, waiting for this cold dec of JB to develop, and snow, lol!!! west track predominates !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Beautiful EPO- in the mid range GFS. That "polar vortex"/wave-breaking signature also seems to be quite persistent in recent years once it appears, so hopefully we can keep the low-temps going for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said: no snow on either gfs or euro till at least the 15th probably longer than that, but lots of rain, enjoy the soggy conditions, waiting for this cold dec of JB to develop, and snow, lol!!! Isn't there another bridge you can go hangout under??? Actually check out the NYC winter thread. You would fit right in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 For the most part the over night runs were cold/dry with brief periods of warm/wet. At least the Euro is now moving toward better ridging in the west and a deeper trough in the east in the extended going away from the flat zonal look it was advertising. Temps in the extended are responding showing seasonable to BN temps in the east//NE instead of the AN it had for a few runs. For whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much, the 12K Nam is getting a little more aggressive with snowfall tues. evening/night with 2 inches showing north and west of the cities. The new 4k NAM also is bullish on snow with 2 inches north and west with higher totals showing up in the favored locations. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised that some of the higher elevations do get a slushy inch but at this point I find it hard to believe we see the NAM totals verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Ridging in AK stays in place until the end of the GFS. It waxes and wanes a bit here and there so the PAC will do it's part for a while. NAO gets beaten down some later on. This could be a winter where we get help from the PAC for a bit then as it eases the NAO could help if it stays - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 hours ago, mdsnowlover said: no snow on either gfs or euro till at least the 15th probably longer than that, but lots of rain, enjoy the soggy conditions, waiting for this cold dec of JB to develop, and snow, lol!!! west track predominates !! You're gonna keep on until you get 5 posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 59 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For the most part the over night runs were cold/dry with brief periods of warm/wet. At least the Euro is now moving toward better ridging in the west and a deeper trough in the east in the extended going away from the flat zonal look it was advertising. Temps in the extended are responding showing seasonable to BN temps in the east//NE instead of the AN it had for a few runs. For whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much, the 12K Nam is getting a little more aggressive with snowfall tues. evening/night with 2 inches showing north and west of the cities. The new 4k NAM also is bullish on snow with 2 inches north and west with higher totals showing up in the favored locations. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised that some of the higher elevations do get a slushy inch but at this point I find it hard to believe we see the NAM totals verify. Yeah, the NAM likes the snow potential but nothing else does. The Euro had been pretty bullish for some snow out here for tomorrow until last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 You're gonna keep on until you get 5 postedThing is... it's not even true. Verbatim, the GFS has some backend snow later this week for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 people see what they want to see when looking at models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I was reading Cosgrove weekend update. He sees longer term as warmer with trough to left of EC. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I was reading Cosgrove weekend update. He sees longer term as warmer with trough to left of EC. We shall see. A trough to the left is better than one right on top of us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A trough to the left is better than one right on top of us IMO. Cutters instead of whiffs? Warm/wet instead instead of cold/dry? I'll take option C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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