December Med/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, we've seen transfers from nw WV to off the coast of NC before. That is close to the farthest north a primary can die and still squeeze out a good event and even then...

I might have to stay up for the euro so I don't have to have bad dreams tonight. 

Don't do it man.  Too early.  But I gotta admit, I'm starting to get interested.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I'd say it would be hard for it to not cut.  I'd prefer to see it start further south.

So if we get that low a little farther south, we are in business for a SECS?


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[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, we've seen transfers from nw WV to off the coast of NC before. That is close to the farthest north a primary can die and still squeeze out a good event and even then...

I might have to stay up for the euro so I don't have to have bad dreams tonight. 

They usually come from Mississippi to WV though don't they?  I like the trend though.  Well, if you can have a trend on a 180 hr event

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, we've seen transfers from nw WV to off the coast of NC before. That is close to the farthest north a primary can die and still squeeze out a good event and even then...

I might have to stay up for the euro so I don't have to have bad dreams tonight. 

...you can't be serious

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

They usually come from Mississippi to WV though don't they?  I like the trend though.  Well, if you can have a trend on a 180 hr event

The WV transfers usually taint though.  I mean, WV is like pushing the northern limit to the max

[ravensrule]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

...you can't be serious

He is dead serious. You need help with your sarcasm meter .

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

So if we get that low a little farther south, we are in business for a SECS?


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Ha, not necessarily, but probably could get a significant front end thump out of it.  To my eye as modeled it's getting sheared a bit by the flow it's riding.  I think it would be a healthier storm if it started low enough to allow it to move north some.  Maybe Bob can weigh in on this.

[ravensrule]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ha, not necessarily, but probably could get a significant front end thump out of it.  To my eye as modeled it's getting sheared a bit by the flow it's riding.  I think it would be a healthier storm if it started low enough to allow it to move north some.  Maybe Bob can weigh in on this.

Bob is unavailable. He is having bad dreams.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The WV transfers usually taint though.  I mean, WV is like pushing the northern limit to the max

Yeah.  Any transfer from north of the Tenn/Ky border has issues 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

...you can't be serious

Just go ahead and copy your best "no snow" one liner.  That way you can just paste it every time there's a possible snow event.

[psuhoffman]

Gefs continues to improve. Mean snowfall now up to 5" DC. 7" IAD. 8" towards Harper's ferry. Starting to get that look we see right before a good period. Quite a few big hits. Only a few show a total shutout. 

[CAPE]

0z euro op runs a low up to the GL then tries to form a low along the NC coast on the 12th but it gets shunted out. Most of the region would get some showers with temps in the 40s before the front moves through. EPS pretty supportive of the op. Long way out and still potential for something, but it doesn't come together this run. The 15 day snow mean doesn't look nearly as good as previous runs- about an inch for the cities ranging up to 4 near Westminster. Looks pretty typical for the period though.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z euro op runs a low up to the GL then tries to form a low along the NC coast on the 12th but it gets shunted out. Most of the region would get some showers with temps in the 40s before the front moves through. EPS pretty supportive of the op. Long way out and still potential for something, but it doesn't come together this run. The 15 day snow mean doesn't look nearly as good as previous runs- about an inch for the cities ranging up to 4 near Westminster. Looks pretty typical for the period though.

It did step back noticeably on the 15 day snowfall mean. Looking at the 500's the overall look through the period was very similar with only subtle changes here and there. But those slight changes had an impact as you can see with the mslp mean showing some noticeable changes in the longer range indicating that the esp is probably keying on different features. Pattern still has an overall good look so we can hopefully chalk this up to noise from run to run more so then anything else.

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It did step back noticeably on the 15 day snowfall mean. Looking at the 500's the overall look through the period was very similar with only subtle changes here and there. But those slight changes had an impact as you can see with the mslp mean showing some noticeable changes in the longer range indicating that the esp is probably keying on different features. Pattern still has an overall good look so we can hopefully chalk this up to noise from run to run more so then anything else.

Maybe but not a good sign unless the 12z runs rebound. After the 12th, we wait until the 18th for the next cold shot.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Maybe but not a good sign unless the 12z runs rebound. After the 12th, we wait until the 18th for the next cold shot.

If we see the models continue to step back on ensuing runs then I will get concerned. At this point though, with the pattern that has been advertised for a while now, I fully expect we will see our first snowfall shortly. And though a snowstorm would be nice I will be a happy with an inch or two to get us started on the season.

Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in but you lost me on the part about waiting till the 18th for our next cold shot. Looking at the current means for the GEFS and the EPS they both show fairly significant BN temps the 12th through the 18th. Are you talking the op runs?

[Wonderdog]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If we see the models continue to step back on ensuing runs then I will get concerned. At this point though, with the pattern that has been advertised for a while now, I fully expect we will see our first snowfall shortly. And though a snowstorm would be nice I will be a happy with an inch or two to get us started on the season.

Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in but you lost me on the part about waiting till the 18th for our next cold shot. Looking at the current means for the GEFS and the EPS they both show fairly significant BN temps the 12th through the 18th. Are you talking the op runs?

Possibly I'm incorrect. Where on Tropical Tidbits would I find the means for GEFS and EPS?

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Possibly I'm incorrect. Where on Tropical Tidbits would I find the means for GEFS and EPS?

The EPS is limited to 850's and only goes to 10 days but the GEFS has 2m temps as well as 850's through 16 days. These parameters can be found on the thermodynamics tab at the bottom right. 

 

ESP http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2016120400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=456

 

GEFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2016120406&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=521

[mdsnowlover]

gefs shows nothing snow wise

[Wonderdog]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The EPS is limited to 850's and only goes to 10 days but the GEFS has 2m temps as well as 850's through 16 days. These parameters can be found on the thermodynamics tab at the bottom right. 

 

ESP http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2016120400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=456

 

GEFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2016120406&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=521

Thanks!

[CAPE]

Looking at the 500 mb height pattern, the end of the EPS run does feature the return of a trough near GOA, and much of the lower 48 has somewhat above normal heights. Have the feeling we are not going see things get quite right in the ePac anytime soon. Starting to see some persistence, and its not the look we really want.

[ldub23]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2016120400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

 

I think seems to indicate a  possible warm-up from a bitter cold weekend.

[showmethesnow]

27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Thanks!

No problem.  I do want to correct myself. Not sure what I looked at originally but I just looked over the EPS on weatherbell again, that goes out to 15 days, and it is nowhere near as aggressive with the cold as the GEFS. Has a warm shot around the 12th followed by a cold shot a couple days later. Troubling look after the cold shot though as the whole CONUS warms.

Edit: Figured out what I was looking at. The 5 day mean for day 15 shows BN temps but that is reflective of the extreme departures we see earlier in the period. Day by day look tells the true story though where the tail end of the period warms somewhat significantly. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at the 500 mb height pattern, the end of the EPS run does feature the return of a trough near GOA, and much of the lower 48 has somewhat above normal heights. Have the feeling we are not going see things get quite right in the ePac anytime soon. Starting to see some persistence, and its not the look we really want.

Maybe just wishful thinking on my part but I am not sure I buy into the EPS 15 day solution as of yet with the very zonal CONUS flow and a GOA trough. I have to wonder if at this point it is more a product of smoothing that you see over long leads. Looking over the various runs of the GEFS and the EPS I have to wonder if what actually verifies is closer to a deeper trough in the east and better ridging in the west which would set up the East/NE in a general NE flow bringing at least seasonal temps if not cold. Both the GEFS and the GEM support this as well some of the members within the EPS ensembles. As far as the GOA trough? I would not be surprised to see that set up farther to the west into western Alaska/Aleutian islands. Both the GEFS and the GEM argue for this solution as well as some of the tendencies thrown forward by the EPS over several runs. Of course persistence over the last month or two would favor the GOA with that feature and that is hard to argue against. Again, maybe wishful thinking, but I do think we get a better look then what the 15 day EPS is advertising at this time.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

gefs shows nothing snow wise

Don't exaggerate. The mean on the 6z gefs is about 2.5 in DC. Close to 5 up my way. Both the gefs and eps just took a significant step down though from what had been their best runs snowfall wise the previous run. That's not a good sign but it's also just one run.  The euro lost the idea of the 50/50 low that was giving it the good look 48 hours ago. It's also redeveloping some of the same problems we have had on the pacific side and while the Atlantic looks fine it's not nearly the magnitude block needed to offset the pacific. The gefs isn't as bad and has a slightly better Atlantic and more ambiguous PAC leaving us with a pattern we could work with towards the end. Plus it doesn't really begin to break down the Alaska ridge until day 14 so that could be a mistake still. Definitely not a good bunch of overnight runs after several encouraging days but not time to jump off a bridge yet either. 

[mdsnowlover]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't exaggerate. The mean on the 6z gefs is about 2.5 in DC. Close to 5 up my way. Both the gefs and eps just took a significant step down though from what had been their best runs snowfall wise the previous run. That's not a good sign but it's also just one run.  The euro lost the idea of the 50/50 low that was giving it the good look 48 hours ago. It's also redeveloping some of the same problems we have had on the pacific side and while the Atlantic looks fine it's not nearly the magnitude block needed to offset the pacific. The gefs isn't as bad and has a slightly better Atlantic and more ambiguous PAC leaving us with a pattern we could work with towards the end. Plus it doesn't really begin to break down the Alaska ridge until day 14 so that could be a mistake still. Definitely not a good bunch of overnight runs after several encouraging days but not time to jump off a bridge yet either. 

compared to what was shown it is nothing!!! IMHO!!

[das]

10 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

 

Bit of a newbie here.. but would the low actually take that track? Seems like it would sink more.

 

 

It can happen.  Feb 2003 was a good example.  Wall of high pressure to the north will keep it heading east (and not cutting north) then the low finally transfers as it nears the baroclinic zone at the coast.  Here's a decent radar shot of the storm while the low was still back in Kansas.  The precip is breaking out along the confluence zone created by the high to the north and the southerly flow ahead of the storm.

[WinterWxLuvr]

43 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

compared to what was shown it is nothing!!! IMHO!!

You're right.  I seriously doubt it snows this year.  You probably don't need to follow the models at this point.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You're right.  I seriously doubt it snows this year.  You probably don't need to follow the models at this point.

Your reply lacks impact. Try an exclamation point or 2 next time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have never seen an h5 flow like the GFS shows at 192.

As flat and straight as you can get.  Looks like complete equilibrium.

[Bob Chill]

It's hard to fathom it might not snow in early Dec. That hasn't happened in like a year and stuff. 

 

No need to add anything about the overnight runs. The GOA could prove problematic if it happens. But it's not a pac torch pattern by any stretch. Evolving out of that sort of thing can be easy too so I'm not going to stress is. 

 

If we can keep some higher heights near GL/Davis straight, flow could easily remain buckled enough for below normal temps here at times. The nice thing about later Dec and into Jan is that normal temps are serviceable unlike early Dec.