Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is. I want it to be real. -EPO/50-50/-NAO/Split Flow The -PNA might keep the flow too progressive, but it is kind of neutered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Ha! I'm almost never up that late anymore. Unless a snow threat is in the med-short range of course. I was DD last night so I was kinda amped up getting home late. I'll bet I feel better right now than everyone else I was with last night. LOL. On topic: Unsurprisingly the gefs seems to have officially abondoned the idea about losing the poleward AK ridge and replacing it with lower heights. Both the eps and gefs agree with keeping the blocking ridge intact. 6z gefs still had the ridge closed at d16. Good sign and goes along with the stubborn feature idea that we've seen persist the last few years (for better or for worse). 6z gefs and 0z eps keeping the developing legit -nao look going late in the period. Also looks like a cold reload poised to push into the US on the 19th. Hopefully all this stuff is real and continues through the holidays. A frustrating relaxation will probably happen at the worst time though. We're good like that here. you are doing an excellent job leading the long range discussion. Wish I had more time nowadays. Lol at the NYC winter thread where a couple of trolls basically took over the narrative and convince everyone another 2011/12 is coming Everytime there is one bad run that shows a warm up in the super long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 GEFS mean is right at 2" for Tues/Wed here and the Euro is 1-1.5" for the same. Still very skeptical but there is the caveat that these types tend to tick colder as they approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: LOL I've been pretty optimistic about the post 12/10 timeframe for a week now. I'd say I'm bullish in general for the 11th-18th period in general but we typically don't get hit with the first chance after cold settles in. Especially during a fairly significant pattern change. With that being said, on paper it looks like an above normal chance at our first accum chance overall next weekend even if a flawed setup end up reality. Beats last December when we were 65-70 pretty much every day during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 12z Gefs pretty supportive of the west track after the big front. Not just the first wave but all of them. Doesn't mean no snow if it goes that way. Just that a storm won't be nearly as likely to be all snow if something happens. -nao looking sweet again tho...Psu approves. I do. Not worried about any one good (ecmwf) or bad (gfs) run but the overall pattern drivers are lining up consistently better run to run on all the guidance. It's still too far out for any one threat to be taken on specifics or details but the general idea that we will have an extended window is setting up and then we have to see about things like 50/50, sw spacing, timing, phasing, CAD. All the usual suspects. The majority of the op runs over the last 48 hours are starting to show a hit and that's encouraging. Even the latest gfs run doesn't bother me because I'd rather have the large scale pattern right and have the model showing misses then have hits in a pattern that is flawed. They usually end up being the unicorn fantasy storms that disappear anyways where as give me this type pattern and I'll bet something pops up even if it's not there at 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 My take after looking at the 12z gefs a bit more is I like where it's at in the long range even better then the last few runs. That nao is really becoming a dominant feature more each run. Yes there is a bit of pesky southeast ridging that could be troublesome before then but in a very cold pattern with blocking a small bit of ridging might not hurt that bad. We can still score depending on the specifics in that look. It does open the door for cutting but it's not a done deal. Longer term where the gefs leave off heading towards Xmas looks sweet to me. Not brutal cold but certainly not warm and given that blocking look out for storm threats in that pattern. Op euro was even better obviously in the day 6-10 period by developing a monster 50/50 that forces that day 8 threat under us. That's one way to get it done in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: So am I the only one who doesn't believe the 12z Euro's storm will happen at all? I don't think anyone on here ran out to buy bread and milk based on that one euro op run but the overall pattern is looking better and better as we get closer plus at the same time hits are starting to show up on op runs. That's the big takeaway here not any specifics on day 8 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: So am I the only one who doesn't believe the 12z Euro's storm will happen at all? I myself am not really concerned whether this particular storm materializes or not. What I am liking is the fact that both the GFS and the Euro are now throwing out storms through the favorable stretch we have coming up. So though we may not get this particular storm I would not be surprised if we do see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone on here ran out to buy bread and milk based on that one euro op run but the overall pattern is looking better and better as we get closer plus at the same time hits are starting to show up on op runs. That's the big takeaway here not any specifics on day 8 threats. ninja'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Euro ens leaning towards a NW track with the d8 deal. Meteo's aren't out yet but only looks like a small minority like the underneath/good snow track for now. The whole period beyond the 8th or so looks really ripe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I will likely be in Canaan and Deep Creek area from the 18th until Xmas eve eve. Planning to do some snowshoeing and cross country skiing. I planned to do it last Dec but that didn't quite work out. I am pretty confident it will this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens leaning towards a NW track with the d8 deal. Meteo's aren't out yet but only looks like a small minority like the underneath/good snow track for now. The whole period beyond the 8th or so looks really ripe though. Yeah the solid hits for our region among the members are few and far between. None really indicating a miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens leaning towards a NW track with the d8 deal. Meteo's aren't out yet but only looks like a small minority like the underneath/good snow track for now. The whole period beyond the 8th or so looks really ripe though. Are any stats available that show how individual members perform from a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Just now, Wonderdog said: Are any stats available that show how individual members perform from a week out? No. That's not really what they're for at all. You look for biggest similar cluster. In this case the op run doesn't have much support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 4 hours ago, Sparky said: Dec 13 was pretty sweet for the Carroll highlands. That one storm was sweet. I was sleeping in at New Windsor fire the night before. Woke up to get breakfast at 7-11 with a few flurries and came out to a snow globe. We ran our butts off with wrecks and chimney fires for the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 18z GFS has the storm. Mostly rain for DC, few inches on the thump and back end. Got a week to will that low southeast! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Hr 384 would really kick off the holiday week with a bang. That should hold based on my experience with LR op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens leaning towards a NW track with the d8 deal. Meteo's aren't out yet but only looks like a small minority like the underneath/good snow track for now. The whole period beyond the 8th or so looks really ripe though. Mean snowfall is generally increasing run to run. Now around 3" DC to 5" up my way. There is a large cluster skewed nw with the storm track but it's not that far west of a track and with the cold were going to have around I don't mind the models showing a slightly too far nw track at this point. If we actually get the kind of Arctic shot models are indicating my gut says the storm track could easily adjust south a bit once that arctic air is actually sitting in the way. Furthermore we can score some messy snow in a dirty storm with a nw track when we have Arctic air in place. Better then cold and dry anyways. We're talking such a minor adjustment needed from this range anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 35 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GFS has the storm. Mostly rain for DC, few inches on the thump and back end. Got a week to will that low southeast! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk IMO, if the storm were to develop that way you'd be looking at a big fat zero for all of us. A low in Chicago won't produce much of a thump. There's no high to the northeast anyway. You might be lucky and get a few flurries on the back side. If you're very lucky. You're basically looking at a cold front there. Virtually no chance of a storm verifying as modeled from 8 days but that depiction is about as bad as it could get. IMO. Thats a transferring low, BTW. We would need that low to move from Chicago to Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z GFS looks better than 12z for next Sunday. Still need the low to either come under or transfer farther south to see some meaningful snow, but there's plenty of time for adjustments. Cold looked real nice on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: My take after looking at the 12z gefs a bit more is I like where it's at in the long range even better then the last few runs. That nao is really becoming a dominant feature more each run. Yes there is a bit of pesky southeast ridging that could be troublesome before then but in a very cold pattern with blocking a small bit of ridging might not hurt that bad. We can still score depending on the specifics in that look. It does open the door for cutting but it's not a done deal. Longer term where the gefs leave off heading towards Xmas looks sweet to me. Not brutal cold but certainly not warm and given that blocking look out for storm threats in that pattern. Op euro was even better obviously in the day 6-10 period by developing a monster 50/50 that forces that day 8 threat under us. That's one way to get it done in this pattern. I tend to like to see a little SE ridging in an increasing -NAO regiem. Helps with suppression city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, das said: I tend to like to see a little SE ridging in an increasing -NAO regiem. Helps with suppression city... Me too. Deep eastern troughs and arctic air usually mean partly cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Not often you see a storm go from Colorado to Kansas to Missouri to Illinois to Indiana to Ohio like the gfs shows. Just following the flow with a big high to the north helping to keep it from cutting I suppose. Next Sun/Mon looks like a good chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Always good to see CIPS honking on some cooler weather. Hopefully Canada gets to build a deep snowpack out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Not often you see a storm go from Colorado to Kansas to Missouri to Illinois to Indiana to Ohio like the gfs shows. Just following the flow with a big high to the north helping to keep it from cutting I suppose. Next Sun/Mon looks like a good chanceBit of a newbie here.. but would the low actually take that track? Seems like it would sink more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Low transfers to the Outer banks from the south Indiana/Ohio border it looks like. Nice south trend with the low from 12z until now. Hopefully the Euro still has it at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Weenies in Boston popping champagne right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Heh, we've seen transfers from nw WV to off the coast of NC before. That is close to the farthest north a primary can die and still squeeze out a good event and even then... I might have to stay up for the euro so I don't have to have bad dreams tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bit of a newbie here.. but would the low actually take that track? Seems like it would sink more. I'd say it would be hard for it to not cut. I'd prefer to see it start further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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