Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Weeniest GEFS run of the season by far. The 6" mean has hit DC before but it was skewed by 1-2 giants in the mix. Not this run though. Spread nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I heard the Canadian loves Mt Parkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 5:38 PM, usedtobe said: Looks like my statement was wrong about the GEFS. I was trying to infer stuff from the stormvista spaghetti plots and didn't see any clearly defined wave. I should have looked at the WXBell site. Expand You gave me mild angina when you said no support from GEFS. I said angina folks. Look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 totally read vagina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 5:59 PM, stormtracker said: You gave me mild angina when you said no support from GEFS. I said angina folks. Look it up. Expand Having a jewish grandmother makes me very familiar with angina and any heart health related terms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:01 PM, mappy said: totally read vagina Expand If Wes gave me that, we'd be on some daytime talk show instead of talking about a mid week snow threat. To keep this weather related, I think mid week sets up an even bigger threat, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It's good to have you back. Expand We better enjoy the good times in December/January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:03 PM, stormtracker said: If Wes gave me that, we'd be on some daytime talk show instead of talking about a mid week snow threat. To keep this weather related, I think mid week sets up an even bigger threat, IMO. Expand I'm relying on Andy sending me info, work is too hectic at the moment for me to follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:04 PM, stormtracker said: We better enjoy the good times in December/January. Expand If by good times you mean high highs and low lows every 6 hours along with panic, despair, and failure...yes, we will enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:06 PM, Bob Chill said: If by good times you mean high highs and low lows every 6 hours along with panic, despair, and failure...yes, we will enjoy. Expand Duh. It's the Mid Atlantic way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 just took a glance at CMC on weatherbell. can I lock that in for this Sunday/Monday? Pretty please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 this winter is off to a disastrous start. We need to quickly make up for this atrocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Doesn't look like the EURO will be joining the GGEM through 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just a slight difference between the major globals for Sunday/Monday. 12z Euro has a 994mb low over Indianapolis Monday morning. Eta...that's a huge difference from it's own 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 floods the area with warmth on the euro where the CMC was riding a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 5:46 PM, Bob Chill said: Weeniest GEFS run of the season by far. The 6" mean has hit DC before but it was skewed by 1-2 giants in the mix. Not this run though. Spread nicely. Expand Definitely a positive gefs run. The snow is spread out across 4 waves in the 6-14 day period. The most favorable being the one next week being discussed. Some members manage multiple hits and thus the impressive totals. The best sign in only 4/20 manage to miss with all 4. I would say our odds of cashing in on at least one of these opportunities is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:24 PM, WxUSAF said: Just a slight difference between the major globals for Sunday/Monday. 12z Euro has a 994mb low over Indianapolis Monday morning. Eta...that's a huge difference from it's own 0z run. Expand This model mayhem could be a good thing. At least it keeps it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z EURO brings in some real brutal arctic air Day 5 and 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Euro is flurries with the non-wave mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Here? I don't see any big cold at 120. You must mean day 7 on Expand Wind chills pressing 0 in parts of the area at 186 and 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:24 PM, WxUSAF said: Just a slight difference between the major globals for Sunday/Monday. 12z Euro has a 994mb low over Indianapolis Monday morning. Eta...that's a huge difference from it's own 0z run. Expand The euro is so consistent lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Relevant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 the euro always overamplifes stuff.......throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 When is Lucy showing up? This is all too weird. I don’t like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 6:59 PM, Ji said: the euro always overamplifes stuff.......throw it out Expand What if it was a clean amped miller A? Toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 DT mentions cold pattern breaks Xmas weekend. That would figure if true. I'd rather have it warm until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Decent event shaping up at the end of the euro op. Tricky with the low near the lakes but really nice antecedent air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 7:04 PM, Bob Chill said: Decent event shaping up at the end of the euro op. Tricky with the low near the lakes but really nice antecedent air in place. Would that snow in DC change to ice/rain in this scenario or would it end up sticking as snow? Seems like CAD could hold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 7:23 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Would that snow in DC change to ice/rain in this scenario or would it end up sticking as snow? Seems like CAD could hold there. Expand Mid levels are eroding the whole time so it's not really cad more than it takes time to scour a cold air mass. Surface and 850 winds are southerly and it's an elongated low pressure with 2 centers (one @ the KY/OH border and another north of the great lakes. HP is off the coast by 240. That's what makes it a tricky setup on the model. My take is it would be a changeover sometime after 240 but the precip could shutoff before. Who knows. Just another model run either way. If you want to watch trends that can help, look for weaker LP around the lakes/northward (or none at all) and stronger in the TN valley. That would make a big difference. Or the HP placement to the NE. The slower that exits the coast, the better off for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 7:33 PM, Bob Chill said: Mid levels are eroding the whole time so it's not really cad more than it takes time to scour a cold air mass. Surface and 850 winds are southerly and it's an elongated low pressure with 2 centers (one @ the KY/OH border and another north of the great lakes. HP is off the coast by 240. That's what makes it a tricky setup on the model. My take is it would be a changeover sometime after 240 but the precip could shutoff before. Who knows. Just another model run either way. If you want to watch trends that can help, look for weaker LP around the lakes/northward (or none at all) and stronger in the TN valley. That would make a big difference. Or the HP placement to the NE. The slower that exits the coast, the better off for sure. Expand we are in midseason form. Deep analysis of the euro day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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