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December 2016 General Discussion


snowlover2

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So do you think the northern Illinois snow-covered area will get to the minus teens or minus 20s next Monday? The 12z GFS now has -25 near Peru IL on Monday. Gee, I'm glad I am not driving I-80 from Cheyenne to Toledo this Christmastime!!! It'll be an arctic wasteland.

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14 minutes ago, Chinook said:

So do you think the northern Illinois snow-covered area will get to the minus teens or minus 20s next Monday? The 12z GFS now has -25 near Peru IL on Monday. Gee, I'm glad I am not driving I-80 from Cheyenne to Toledo this Christmastime!!! It'll be an arctic wasteland.

I could see -10 or so...but even that assumes the snow cover remains fresh, i.e. little to no rain & warmth with the upcoming system. The airmass itself doesn't look too impressive; it's more of a radiational cooling situation. Time will tell!

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3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I could see -10 or so...but even that assumes the snow cover remains fresh, i.e. little to no rain & warmth with the upcoming system. The airmass itself doesn't look too impressive; it's more of a radiational cooling situation. Time will tell!

Pretty impressive high being progged over N IL...around 1045 mb which is toward the upper end of what we get around here.  But timing will be crucial as to whether it can park itself overhead or close enough for a night.

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

-10 in Rochelle.  Pretty impressive.  We jumped back up to +3 here, a 4 degree rise in the last hour.  The weak ridge is slowly sinking southeast of here now.

At this rate, them or Aurora might make a run at the state record later this weekend/early week.  I'm only half kidding.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At this rate, them or Aurora might make a run at the state record later this weekend/early week.  I'm only half kidding.

Haha.  Well, hopefully one way or the other we can get a few inches of fresh snow to fall over these areas to take full advantage of the arctic air mass.  Some of the temps the various models have been spitting out lately are pretty eye popping to be sure.

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At this rate, them or Aurora might make a run at the state record later this weekend/early week.  I'm only half kidding.

With how temperatures performed tonight at ARR and RPJ, I'm pretty confident that they'll free fall to 10-15 below Thursday evening before the high shifts southeast and some clouds move in. That means all bets are off for Sunday night if we do get a 1040-1045 mb high overhead at the right time to optimize radiational cooling. The 12z Euro ensemble was showing ridiculous stuff even at ORD for Monday morning, an ensemble mean of 18 below with a huge majority of the members sub 10 below.

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

With how temperatures performed tonight at ARR and RPJ, I'm pretty confident that they'll free fall to 10-15 below Thursday evening before the high shifts southeast and some clouds move in. That means all bets are off for Sunday night if we do get a 1040-1045 mb high overhead at the right time to optimize radiational cooling. The 12z Euro ensemble was showing ridiculous stuff even at ORD for Monday morning, an ensemble mean of 18 below with a huge majority of the members sub 10 below.

I think you have to go back to 1/16/09 for the last time that ORD hit -18.

I went back and looked at the reanalysis images from that day.  The airmass aloft back then looks colder than what's currently progged for Sunday night, but the surface high is of similar strength.

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I think you have to go back to 1/16/09 for the last time that ORD hit -18.

I went back and looked at the reanalysis images from that day.  The airmass aloft back then looks colder than what's currently progged for Sunday night, but the surface high is of similar strength.



It will definitely come down to clear skies and the surface high being positioned to maximize the cooling. Interesting to note that the most recent runs of the Euro and GFS have not backed off on the magnitude of the cold. Simply for climatology, would hedge against it being quite that extreme, but if we do get optimal conditions and a net gain in snow cover leading into it, could be one of the more notable cold nights in December in the 2000s.
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Agree with everything above; 12z GFS continues to show a 1044 mb high overhead Monday morning.  Record lows for 12/19 are -14 at ORD and -21 at RFD, both set in 1983.  Those will be very tough to beat...but merely challenging records from the frigid December of 1983 is pretty impressive.


Also, RFD may set a record low max tomorrow (12/15).  Current record is 9, set in 1932. 

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