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December 2016 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Snow squalls are looking more likely for IND and IWX late Thursday afternoon/evening. IND has been beating the drum for a couple of days.

From clear to zero visibility in seconds.  I 65 will be a parking lot.

 

Model guidance continues to show the ingredients for snow squalls
coming together. Steep low level lapse rates, possibly some weak
low level instability, at least some low level moisture and
moisture in the dendritic growth zone, vort lobes within the
larger upper trough, and strong low level flow. Model snow squall
parameters are again strongly positive across much of central
Indiana in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday, and now that
we are within 60 hours, convection allowing models are also
hinting at development of snow showers during this time period.

This all is to say that there will be the potential for dangerous
snow squalls, with rapidly varying visibility in brief bursts of
intense snow showers as winds across central Indiana gust to near
40 MPH at times Thursday afternoon and evening.
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What does this mean from KIND?  Are they just saying brief bursts of heavy snow showers with low visibility?  if so why not just say that?  IWX just says snow showers 2 miles north.

Thursday
A slight chance of snow showers before 3pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 3pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Increasing clouds, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers before 1am, then a slight chance of flurries between 1am and 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 24. West northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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16 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Snow squalls are looking more likely for IND and IWX late Thursday afternoon/evening. IND has been beating the drum for a couple of days.

From clear to zero visibility in seconds.  I 65 will be a parking lot.

 


Model guidance continues to show the ingredients for snow squalls
coming together. Steep low level lapse rates, possibly some weak
low level instability, at least some low level moisture and
moisture in the dendritic growth zone, vort lobes within the
larger upper trough, and strong low level flow. Model snow squall
parameters are again strongly positive across much of central
Indiana in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday, and now that
we are within 60 hours, convection allowing models are also
hinting at development of snow showers during this time period.

This all is to say that there will be the potential for dangerous
snow squalls, with rapidly varying visibility in brief bursts of
intense snow showers as winds across central Indiana gust to near
40 MPH at times Thursday afternoon and evening.

ILN and local mets have been talking quite a bit about squalls here tomorrow night. Should be fun to watch.

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I guess I just don't understand why they hide it in the discussion and say 'Heavy snow at times" in the P&C.  I just had some folks that are traveling up from down south tomorrow call and they were asking how much snow we were gonna get.  Just say occasional heavy squalls instead of being obscure.  Maybe I'm being picky, or in cold brown denial :whistle: 

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4 hours ago, Harry said:

Dropping in to say hi all! Hope all has been well with everyone!

Harry! Good to hear from you. I was just asking about you over in the banter thread a few days ago. I hope all is well and you are enjoying the winter so far.

 

6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

I guess I just don't understand why they hide it in the discussion and say 'Heavy snow at times" in the P&C.  I just had some folks that are traveling up from down south tomorrow call and they were asking how much snow we were gonna get.  Just say occasional heavy squalls instead of being obscure.  Maybe I'm being picky, or in cold brown denial :whistle: 

 

Yeah, I don't understand that either. Probably some kind of algorithm or something that produces the p-n-c. Traveling could get ugly late today in squall areas.

 

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36 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Got 3" last night from the front that went through the area. 

Over performer last night. Was expecting 1-2" tops and ended up with about 3.5". Nice looking paste job too. Had lost about 90% of the snowpack with the previous system so this was a welcome surprise.

Fresh 'pack:

Snxxk0G.jpg

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Despite the arctic air for 5 days, its very likely December will finish near normal or slightly above average, this is such a bummer. 

Precipitation has been near average, looks like we close the month with 2" of snowfall, just in time for another soaker for the 1-1/1-2 timeframe. 

I know winters have been rockin for the Chicago- Detroit corridor the last 5-7 years, but they have been lackluster down here. 

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I achieved my dream. I saw rain in Ohio. It was raining and 60 degrees on Monday night in central Ohio, the wind was blowing the rain against the window. We might have had gusts to 20mph or 30mph. That was great. Out west here, I haven't seen many good rainstorms in the entire year. The next morning, when I drove to CMH airport, it was already down to 35 degrees and I could see the stars. That was just some 14 hours after CMH measured a record high of 69 degrees (Dec. 26th).

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35 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Despite the arctic air for 5 days, its very likely December will finish near normal or slightly above average, this is such a bummer. 

Precipitation has been near average, looks like we close the month with 2" of snowfall, just in time for another soaker for the 1-1/1-2 timeframe. 

I know winters have been rockin for the Chicago- Detroit corridor the last 5-7 years, but they have been lackluster down here. 

We are still around -1.2F on the month, but the last 5 days have cut the negative departure down quite a bit.

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2 hours ago, harrisale said:

Over performer last night. Was expecting 1-2" tops and ended up with about 3.5". Nice looking paste job too. Had lost about 90% of the snowpack with the previous system so this was a welcome surprise.

Fresh 'pack:

Snxxk0G.jpg

 
 

Damn we barely got a centimeter in North London. At least something is on the ground though, the sight of bare grass post-Grinch was kinda depressing.

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Hello Harry!  And glad you had a good trip Chinook.  Some bursts of snow here this evening.  Only a dusting in a few places IMBY so far.  Drove down I-65 this afternoon from Highland IN back home here to Fortville without a problem.  We will see what the new year brings us weatherwise.  Hope everyone has had a meaningful holiday season.

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Oh, the fickle finger of lake effect snow. We took a quick trip to Bay City yesterday. On the trip across the state there is still a lot of snow on the ground in the woods and not much snow on the ground in most open areas. In Bay City itself there of course is not much snow on the ground. Also of note is that while the inland lakes are ice covered the ice must be very thin as we did not see any ice fishing going on. And I have seen people on the ice when I would not have gone out. And on the way back last night we did not see any snow until we were well into the western part of the state. (west of M66) and then not too bad just light snow falling with around 2” near Howard City. Here at my house just enough to cover the ground fell however the roads were icy in this area. So while some areas in west Michigan got up to 6” of snow most areas received less. Right now there is some light snow falling and the temperature here is 28°

 

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5 minutes ago, slimjim101 said:

 

Oh, the fickle finger of lake effect snow. We took a quick trip to Bay City yesterday. On the trip across the state there is still a lot of snow on the ground in the woods and not much snow on the ground in most open areas. In Bay City itself there of course is not much snow on the ground. Also of note is that while the inland lakes are ice covered the ice must be very thin as we did not see any ice fishing going on. And I have seen people on the ice when I would not have gone out. And on the way back last night we did not see any snow until we were well into the western part of the state. (west of M66) and then not too bad just light snow falling with around 2” near Howard City. Here at my house just enough to cover the ground fell however the roads were icy in this area. So while some areas in west Michigan got up to 6” of snow most areas received less. Right now there is some light snow falling and the temperature here is 28°

The fickle finger gave you the finger?

 

 

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Light lake snow ended this afternoon and system snow was quick to move in this evening.  Coming down at a decent clip but flake size has been very small, however, getting better.  Interesting discussion in the MQT AFD this afternoon re: the possibility of a quick burst of very heavy snow as some enhancement comes in to play tomorrow afternoon.  Should see 5-6" unless the scenario in the AFD comes to fruition, in which several more inches could fall.

Saw on the news tonight Houghton County is only several inches or so from their December snowfall record of 118.8"

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Thanks december 2016, was a Great month minus the grinch and other melting....

5.0"  12-04-16 yay a decent overperformer for once
8.5"  12-11-16 sweet lil WAA open wave storm overperformed (was thinking 4-7)
4.25" 12-17-16 underperforming WAA open wave storm very crappy too cold pixie dust low ratio flakes NAM won the storm again saying deform would miss me and it did.
3.5"  12-23-16 overperformer again :)

21.25" for the month, pretty close to 50% of my usual sesonal average. :D

 

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As we head into January 2017 its time to take a short look at what happened in December 2016.

Here in GRR December had a average high of 32.1° (34.8° is average) and the average low was 23.0° (23.5° Is ave) the mean was 27.5° (-1.7°) the warmest day was 53° on the 26th and the coldest was +4° on the 12th snow fall the month came in at 37.0” (21.9” is average) the most in one day fell on the 8.9” on the 12th the most on the ground (at the airport) was 9” on the 12th and again on the 17th  there was over 2” on the ground for 18 days straight from the 9th to the 26th and there has been at least a trace on the ground since December 4th

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On 12/31/2016 at 11:26 AM, smoof said:

Thanks december 2016, was a Great month minus the grinch and other melting....

5.0"  12-04-16 yay a decent overperformer for once
8.5"  12-11-16 sweet lil WAA open wave storm overperformed (was thinking 4-7)
4.25" 12-17-16 underperforming WAA open wave storm very crappy too cold pixie dust low ratio flakes NAM won the storm again saying deform would miss me and it did.
3.5"  12-23-16 overperformer again :)

21.25" for the month, pretty close to 50% of my usual sesonal average. :D

 

Twas the "12 days of winter" for Lwr Mich :lol:

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