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December 2016 General Discussion


snowlover2

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I hope ever one had a great Christmas.

On the weather front the temperature here is now up to 49°. The record high for this date is 50° set in 1893 and again in 1936 so we will have to see if GRR can tie or break that! have some blue sky so the sun should be out for a while so there is a chance. It looks like we will have a return to temperatures near average (a few degrees one way or the other) for some time to come. I still have several inches of snow on the ground  but a lot of bare ground is showing was well. With the December snow fall here now at 36.2” I think this will be the snowiest month of the winter of 2016/17. And still feel that the total snow fall for GRR will end up in the 75 to 85” range for the season (now at 37.0”) That of course will be subject to change (up or down)

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1026 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT FORT WAYNE...

AT 1000 AM EST...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 59 DEGREES WAS SET FOR
THE DATE / DECEMBER 26TH / AT FORT WAYNE. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD
FOR DECEMBER 26TH SET IN 1936 AND 2015. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL TREND
A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY

(Old record 54°)

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A new record high temperature here at GRR. The temperature has reached 52° at GRR and that will set a new record high here. The old record was 50° set in 1893 and 1936. Here at my house I also have a temperature of 52° there is still a lot of snow on the ground but there are also many bare spots as well. And of course the big snow piles may last until spring (depending on how warm it gets at any one point this winter)

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A NEW DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN SET FOR DECEMBER 26
AT THE CINCINNATI NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

AS OF 113 PM...THE TEMPERATURE HAD REACHED 70 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 64 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 2015...1889...AND
1875.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY ONCE A FINAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD HAS BEEN SET.

 

Records are falling, and the winds are howling.  A lot more sun than expected today.  Didn't think 70 was in the cards, but hopefully we'll get a little thunder out of it later on.

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I am near Marysville OH. I saw the sun for a half hour this morning. Then the clouds came in quickly. I could see the clouds moving quite noticeably, with, I assume, low altitude winds of 50mph. It got to the 60's here. All of the other days I have been here, it has been gray.  I saw some fuzzy sunshine for 1 minute on Dec 22nd I think. That was it. All gray, with some very low clouds yesterday.

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Quote

000 SXUS71 KILN 262211 RER

CMH RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 511 PM EST MON NOV 26 2016 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBUS... A NEW DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN SET FOR DECEMBER 26 AT THE JOHN GLENN COLUMBUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AT 433 PM...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 69 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1982 AND 1889.

 

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15 hours ago, weatherbo said:

25 currently... Made it to 40 today with heavy dripping from the roof.  Lost 3" In Depth before the refreeze began. 14" of dense snow on the ground.

Glad you didn't see a big thaw...but I'm surprised you only have 14" on the ground. Given the amount of snow you've seen this season, I was thinking you'd have a 20-30" depth. 

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Glad you didn't see a big thaw...but I'm surprised you only have 14" on the ground. Given the amount of snow you've seen this season, I was thinking you'd have a 20-30" depth. 

Two of the big snows in excess of a foot were pretty high ratio snows, and along with some crazy winds the past 2 weeks, the snow depth really took a hit.  Peak depth for me this season has been 23".  The 14" on the ground now will be here in May.  Nice heavy, compact base to build on.  Takes a lot of snow to sustain a deep depth this early in the season.  Usually Feb/March are my deepest months... no doubt a few feet by then.

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48 minutes ago, Jonger said:

12z GFS looks much better with the Jan 3rd system.

I would be wary of a lone model run that does a complete 180 from previous trends leading up to said run when there was incredibly good agreement on the previous trend between most all of the models.

My guess is that the cutter returns in later runs.

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20 minutes ago, Roon said:

I would be wary of a lone model run that does a complete 180 from previous trends leading up to said run when there was incredibly good agreement on the previous trend between most all of the models.

My guess is that the cutter returns in later runs.

Good chance it reverts back, but lets hope it doesn't. The cutter screws almost the entire subforum, including those in the very furthest north locations. One cutter per month is enough, we don't need to revert snowpack statewide back to October levels.

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7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Good chance it reverts back, but lets hope it doesn't. The cutter screws almost the entire subforum, including those in the very furthest north locations. One cutter per month is enough, we don't need to revert snowpack statewide back to October levels.

I get that - I just hope this storm isn't going to be this strung out ho hum 4-6 inch max snow event.

Honestly though - I don't feel bad for anyone in Michigan when it comes to snowpack :).

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40 minutes ago, Roon said:

I get that - I just hope this storm isn't going to be this strung out ho hum 4-6 inch max snow event.

Honestly though - I don't feel bad for anyone in Michigan when it comes to snowpack :).

I'd rather the 4-6 inch event pan out than rain. Not many recreational activities involve stratiform rain. Looks like most models have the weaker southern system, not the strong cutter previously shown.

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7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I'd rather the 4-6 inch event pan out than rain. Not many recreational activities involve stratiform rain. Looks like most models have the weaker southern system, not the strong cutter previously shown.

The euro is hanging onto the cutter. A 4 - 6 inch storm isn't enough to do anything recreational anyhow, that is barely the start of a good base for snowmobiling :(.

In Michigan most people are a 3 hour drive away from phenomenal winter recreation regardless of a rain storm...so as I said - I really don't feel bad for anyone in Michigan :).

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8 minutes ago, Roon said:

The euro is hanging onto the cutter. A 4 - 6 inch storm isn't enough to do anything recreational anyhow, that is barely the start of a good base for snowmobiling :(.

In Michigan most people are a 3 hour drive away from phenomenal winter recreation regardless of a rain storm...so as I said - I really don't feel bad for anyone in Michigan :).

Are you hoping for severe?

If the 12Z GFS pans out, there will be rec opportunities during the weekend of Jan 7th, if the 06Z pans out, mid January.

There is a foot of snow in the UP as of today, the 06Z would have finished it off.

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3 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Are you hoping for severe?

If the 12Z GFS pans out, there will be rec opportunities during the weekend of Jan 7th, if the 06Z pans out, mid January.

I am hoping for a cutter so that eastern MN and WI can get some love honestly. I also wouldn't mind seeing the UP get further buried.

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3 hours ago, Roon said:

The euro is hanging onto the cutter. A 4 - 6 inch storm isn't enough to do anything recreational anyhow, that is barely the start of a good base for snowmobiling :(.

In Michigan most people are a 3 hour drive away from phenomenal winter recreation regardless of a rain storm...so as I said - I really don't feel bad for anyone in Michigan :).

A 4-6 inch base is plenty for most outdoor snow activities other than snowmobiling.

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A 4-6 inch base is plenty for most outdoor snow activities other than snowmobiling.

The UP and central northern lower has a base already. 4-6 inches of system snow would open a lot of trails. And you are right, for XC skiing, that's more than enough. Snowmobiles require the most.

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