December 2016 General Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

I wasn't sure our snow would last through Christmas, but we still have a bit left.  It's wet and ugly, but white.

[snowlover2]

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!

[TugHillMatt]

Will this short but intense hit of warmth be enough to take out most of my 4 to 8 inch snowpack? Part of me says no...but then these thaws can destroy snow amazingly fast. Strong winds, dewpoints above freezing for 12 hours +...

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Funny how this far north the chance of a White Christmas is just shy of 50%, and the odds only go down as you head south, yet every movie or TV show about Christmas that doesnt take place in FL seems to ALWAYS have snow

The shows that take place in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Boston, Minneapolis, NYC, etc. can kind of get away with that.

But yeah, once you get into cities south of the Mason-Dixon line and west of the Rockies, the White Christmas depictions are just ridiculous. You had show like Golden Girls with a snowstorm in Miami, a show called "In The House" with a snowstorm in Los Angeles as well as Full House with a snowstorm in San Francisco. 

Frasier probably had the most reasonable depiction with its Christmas episodes (cold, cloudy and rainy, lol). 

[Hoosier]

Tonight would be a good night for a time lapse video to watch the snow melt.  Sitting in the 30s now with gray skies, you'd never know what's coming later.  It will feel downright balmy late tonight/overnight. Wonder just how warm it will get.

Merry Christmas folks!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, blackrock said:

Will this short but intense hit of warmth be enough to take out most of my 4 to 8 inch snowpack? Part of me says no...but then these thaws can destroy snow amazingly fast. Strong winds, dewpoints above freezing for 12 hours +...

Here no way it survives. Piles yes, pack no.

[Central Illinois]

Merry Christmas everyone!


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Central Illinois]

Rainy day here but the temp isn't as bad as it could be

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[DAFF]

I'm actually excited for the meltdown, makes my job all that much easier when the next snowfall comes rolling in.... The winter wonderland will be back before we know it,  till then I enjoying the sweatshirt outdoor weather. Love washing the trucks and equipment in the driveway with the garden hose.

[hawkeye_wx]

We are still sitting at 34 degrees thanks to the east wind.  The HRRR still has us getting to 50 late this evening as the warm sector just barely manages to poke up into east-central Iowa as it veers east.  The WAA rain band gave us one decent rumble of thunder and a few downpours, which is kinda neat on Christmas.  My current rain total is 0.41".  It's a bit of a wet mess outside.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here no way it survives. Piles yes, pack no.

Yep, back to good ole SMI winter - interlude of "piles only" even in the best of winters down here. Winds gusting to 25 mph out of the east at least keeping the feel of winter with 25 F windchill currently.

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yep, back to good ole SMI winter - interlude of "piles only" even in the best of winters down here. Winds gusting to 25 mph out of the east at least keeping the feel of winter with 25 F windchill currently.

The winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 did not have that interlude (granted 14-15 snowpack didn't start til early January) and that was enough to downright spoil us. It's been a good start to winter, so hopefully this interlude is brief. There's always a threat of a 2005-06 type winter but odds are low...should be plenty of fun times ahead!!!

 

It was nice to have a solid white christmas. Looks good even though it's dirty alongside all the roads lol.

[TugHillMatt]

36 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yep, back to good ole SMI winter - interlude of "piles only" even in the best of winters down here. Winds gusting to 25 mph out of the east at least keeping the feel of winter with 25 F windchill currently.

 

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here no way it survives. Piles yes, pack no.

In talking with many people here in the Muskegon area, they say winter used to be a lot more like winter here...with snow throughout the winter, and not so many of these (as I find them) annoying thaws. Stats from the 50s through 80s showing seasonal snowfalls would confirm this.

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, blackrock said:

 

In talking with many people here in the Muskegon area, they say winter used to be a lot more like winter here...with snow throughout the winter, and not so many of these (as I find them) annoying thaws. Stats from the 50s through 80s showing seasonal snowfalls would confirm this.

People always think Winter used to be worse when they were younger. I could see Muskegon holding onto snowpack better during thaws and or getting it back quickly due to the extra snow from the lake. I'm sure the 50s through the 80s had plenty of thaws though.

[RogueWaves]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 did not have that interlude (granted 14-15 snowpack didn't start til early January) and that was enough to downright spoil us. It's been a good start to winter, so hopefully this interlude is brief. There's always a threat of a 2005-06 type winter but odds are low...should be plenty of fun times ahead!!!

 

It was nice to have a solid white christmas. Looks good even though it's dirty alongside all the roads lol.

So true on having snow cover today after the last 2 torch Dec's. I got spoilt by 7 yrs in N Mich, though I did sufffer bad timing and got a rare brown Christmas of '94. Ma Nature more than made up for it though with 40" OTG the very next yr. Oh, and you can add 2000, 89, & 83 to the recent winters when December was pretty much it - LOL

15 minutes ago, blackrock said:

 

In talking with many people here in the Muskegon area, they say winter used to be a lot more like winter here...with snow throughout the winter, and not so many of these (as I find them) annoying thaws. Stats from the 50s through 80s showing seasonal snowfalls would confirm this.

Even 13-14 had two annoying rainstorms, the one in Dec and again in early Jan just a few days after the PV Bliz. That one really irked me to no end.

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

People always think Winter used to be worse when they were younger. I could see Muskegon holding onto snowpack better during thaws and or getting it back quickly due to the extra snow from the lake. I'm sure the 50s through the 80s had plenty of thaws though.

Depends. The lake makes such a micro-climate. If the lake is somewhat frozen, thaws can be subdued. But in periods like this where the lake is above average, warm Southwest winds flowing over open water are no good. Fortunately, like you said, bare ground is usually not around too long, as lake effect often starts up on the other side of low pressure systems. 

I was thinking the same thing about people saying things "were worse back in the days." However, in those decades, annual snowfall was commonly in the 100 to 140 inch range...whereas the past two decades it has been in the 70 to 115 inch range.

 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

So true on having snow cover today after the last 2 torch Dec's. I got spoilt by 7 yrs in N Mich, though I did sufffer bad timing and got a rare brown Christmas of '94. Ma Nature more than made up for it though with 40" OTG the very next yr. Oh, and you can add 2000, 89, & 83 to the recent winters when December was pretty much it - LOL

Even 13-14 had two annoying rainstorms, the one in Dec and again in early Jan just a few days after the PV Bliz. That one really irked me to no end.

Winter to me is snow on the ground all winter, with snow falling consistently...but I am an odd duck. Gotta live up north. Where did you live up there?

[RogueWaves]

8 minutes ago, roardog said:

People always think Winter used to be worse when they were younger. I could see Muskegon holding onto snowpack better during thaws and or getting it back quickly due to the extra snow from the lake. I'm sure the 50s through the 80s had plenty of thaws though.

I do remember Feb '77 in SEMI we were down virtually nothing and my buddy asked me along on a snowmobiling weekend trip. I really didn't know how exactly that would work out, but to my surprise just a couple hours north there was plenty of good riding around St. Helen to Rose City areas. Had a blast. That was front loaded winter, with early cold and an early warm-up right after Feb 1st. Not every winter of lore was wall-to-wall back then, 66-67 was notoriously up-n-down mega swings.

[RogueWaves]

4 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Winter to me is snow on the ground all winter, with snow falling consistently...but I am an odd duck. Gotta live up north. Where did you live up there?

Southeast of Traverse City about 8 miles on the high ground adjacent to the Pere Marquette St. Forest. I had lots going for ground cover - soil type, wooded property, not open to sun and wind, not on water front, 100+ in avg, good synoptic and decent LES location. Once winter set in, I rarely saw my lawn again til spring's thawing out which was usually around tax day mid-April. I grew up in SEMI, so endless snow cover was not what I was used to - lol

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Depends. The lake makes such a micro-climate. If the lake is somewhat frozen, thaws can be subdued. But in periods like this where the lake is above average, warm Southwest winds flowing over open water are no good. Fortunately, like you said, bare ground is usually not around too long, as lake effect often starts up on the other side of low pressure systems. 

I was thinking the same thing about people saying things "were worse back in the days." However, in those decades, annual snowfall was commonly in the 100 to 140 inch range...whereas the past two decades it has been in the 70 to 115 inch range.

 

I would have to look up Muskegon stats but as has been said many times...it's all selective memory. There were plenty of thaws and bare periods in the old days and in fact, no stretch came close to the recent winters we have seen in SE MI. The first flakes have always shown up in Oct or November and the last in April and once in a while May. But there are many interludes. The amount of snow that has fallen the last 15 years is a stretch we have never seen before (since records started) and the snowcover of 2013-15 was unprecedented. Nothing in even the 1970s touched it HERE.

[TugHillMatt]

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would have to look up Muskegon stats but as has been said many times...it's all selective memory. There were plenty of thaws and bare periods in the old days and in fact, no stretch came close to the recent winters we have seen in SE MI. The first flakes have always shown up in Oct or November and the last in April and once in a while May. But there are many interludes. The amount of snow that has fallen the last 15 years is a stretch we have never seen before (since records started) and the snowcover of 2013-15 was unprecedented. Nothing in even the 1970s touched it HERE.

The following graph demonstrates it very well for this area. Sure, there have been a few better years recently, but look at the consistency of snowier years in the 60s through 80s. I can definitely see where lifelong locals feel winters are less impressive lately.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/national/2015/feb/city-snow-anoms/Muskegon.gif

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, blackrock said:

The following graph demonstrates it very well for this area. Sure, there have been a few better years recently, but look at the consistency of snowier years in the 60s through 80s. I can definitely see where lifelong locals feel winters are less impressive lately.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/national/2015/feb/city-snow-anoms/Muskegon.gif

Nice find with the graph, and I'm seeing a similarity of a multi-year negative departure stretch in the 50's and 50 yrs later circa 2000. Things may be on the virge of a really good run? 

As for folk's selective memory, I've said before that part of this may be that storms seemed to pull-off more "sneak attacks" back then. The science of forecasting has come a long ways since I was growing up, and the media frequency of updates to people is off the charts different. It used to be news updates (TV or radio) were at 6 pm and 11 pm (if your schedule allowed you to stay up for that). There was no www to get instant forecast news 24-7. 

Another thing related is that the actual "real feel" effects of winter have been mitigated greatly by at least these two things:

1) MDOT and regional road crews have all this technology so that nothing is a surprise any more - nothing. They're ready to roll 30 mins before 1st flakes, and know to the half-hour when the snow will stop. In the '67 bliz, my dad said after it'd been snowing like 28 hours straight, the radio news man literally said they had no idea when it would be over.

2) Almost everyone is driving vehicles that have technology that does a good job of "making snowy roads dissapear".  My AWD with traction control for example. Everybody has an SUV, 4x4 truck or Jeep, AWD, various electronic anti-slide or anti-spin functionality. Try spending a decent winter driving a 60's to 80's rear wheel drive car (which most folks used before FWD and SUV's were around). Combine that with a major lag time in plows hitting the streets and you had a situation of apples to oranges comparison between then and today with the same exact set of weather systems. 

[TugHillMatt]

Thanks. I had one for the yearly snowfall for every year for like the last 100 years for here, but can't seem to find it anywhere.

I noticed the same thing about the possible cycle, and sure hope so!

One concern about cars being better...the drivers of them certainly aren't! There have been way too many accidents and slide-offs already because of many arrogant and/or careless drivers. There is some wisdom with winter driving. I think all Michigan drivers should have to spend a certain amount of time winter driving with a professional before being allowed to take the drivers test.

 

 

45 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice find with the graph, and I'm seeing a similarity of a multi-year negative departure stretch in the 50's and 50 yrs later circa 2000. Things may be on the virge of a really good run? 

As for folk's selective memory, I've said before that part of this may be that storms seemed to pull-off more "sneak attacks" back then. The science of forecasting has come a long ways since I was growing up, and the media frequency of updates to people is off the charts different. It used to be news updates (TV or radio) were at 6 pm and 11 pm (if your schedule allowed you to stay up for that). There was no www to get instant forecast news 24-7. 

Another thing related is that the actual "real feel" effects of winter have been mitigated greatly by at least these two things:

1) MDOT and regional road crews have all this technology so that nothing is a surprise any more - nothing. They're ready to roll 30 mins before 1st flakes, and know to the half-hour when the snow will stop. In the '67 bliz, my dad said after it'd been snowing like 28 hours straight, the radio news man literally said they had no idea when it would be over.

2) Almost everyone is driving vehicles that have technology that does a good job of "making snowy roads dissapear".  My AWD with traction control for example. Everybody has an SUV, 4x4 truck or Jeep, AWD, various electronic anti-slide or anti-spin functionality. Try spending a decent winter driving a 60's to 80's rear wheel drive car (which most folks used before FWD and SUV's were around). Combine that with a major lag time in plows hitting the streets and you had a situation of apples to oranges comparison between then and today with the same exact set of weather systems. 

 

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, blackrock said:

Thanks. I had one for the yearly snowfall for every year for like the last 100 years for here, but can't seem to find it anywhere.

I noticed the same thing about the possible cycle, and sure hope so!

One concern about cars being better...the drivers of them certainly aren't! There have been way too many accidents and slide-offs already because of many arrogant and/or careless drivers. There is some wisdom with winter driving. I think all Michigan drivers should have to spend a certain amount of time winter driving with a professional before being allowed to take the drivers test.

 

 

 

That's for sure, I narrowly missed getting slammed into Monday after work. Gal was in an SUV and there was no ice on the x-ways, but some secondary roads were icy since it was so cold the salt wasn't doing enough. One guy had spun around so 2 of us were going past him very slowly when she came flying over the hill, hit the ice, lost it, slid right past me and slammed that dude who was in the snowbank. People need to be aware that all roads vary in their conditions and you have to be prepared for that in west Michigan anyways.  There were well known winter driving tricks in the RWD days that nobody teaches any more, but they still apply. And the general challenge of winter conditions should be taught as you say to all new drivers. Tough to do in a summer school break session though. So yeah, they hit winter and whoa! look out! 

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

So true on having snow cover today after the last 2 torch Dec's. I got spoilt by 7 yrs in N Mich, though I did sufffer bad timing and got a rare brown Christmas of '94. Ma Nature more than made up for it though with 40" OTG the very next yr. Oh, and you can add 2000, 89, & 83 to the recent winters when December was pretty much it - LOL

Even 13-14 had two annoying rainstorms, the one in Dec and again in early Jan just a few days after the PV Bliz. That one really irked me to no end.

Don't forget, 2/20/14 also had liquid precip (though not nearly as much as expected).

The most impressive part about '13-'14 was how well the snowpack withstood those rain events. 

[Hoosier]

MLI is up to 53.

[cyclone77]

Up to 51 now.  Cold front just passed.  Was 34 at 6pm.  Temp rose to about 43 by 10pm and sat there for almost 2hrs before quickly jumping up to 51 in the final half hour before the cold front arrived.  Not much wind with the line of showers along the front here.  Most of the snow is gone now.

EDIT:  Didn't get as warm as what was modeled all week, but still a pretty impressive change compared to this time last week when we were -12.  63 degree difference.

[hawkeye_wx]

As cyclone said, the warm sector did not surge as far north has models suggested a few days ago.  We still managed to reach 47, which is pretty good for Christmas.  Based on the local school stations, it looks like I got about 2/3rds of an inch of rain.

[Hoosier]

Temp has gone up 5 degrees in the past 40 minutes in Kankakee.

Snow is becoming more patchy here and despite decent winds, it's fairly foggy.

[cyclone77]

Finished with 0.60" for the system.  Snow completely gone, except for a few piles where it had been heaped up.  Looks like November again out there.  Actually kind of nice since the snow was looking pretty mangy anyway the last few days.  Clean slate, time to rebuild the snow pack next month.