snowlover2 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 First month of met winter is almost upon us and it looks like there will be a stormy pattern going into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Looks stormy with a pacific-like flow. Nothing like last December. We have hints of a troughing regime around Dec 7-10th... I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 The recent CFS maps have a nice look, with above average precip and temps ranging from a little above to a little below average. You can only tell so much from monthly maps but I'd take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 The Canadian must have ingested some spoiled turkey with what it spits out to begin met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 58 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The Canadian must have ingested some spoiled turkey with what it spits out to begin met winter. Models have been hinting at something like that off and on, but that is one of the more developed examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Wow, the first week of met winter looks like a snoozefest. Nothing significant incoming on the models until a week from Wednesday at the earliest. zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Looks like we have 10 days to slog through before the better cold arrives. These storms should lay a good snowpack down in the heart of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 18z GFS has one of those major winter fantasy storms for the Ohio Valley about the weekend of the 10th/11th like the one that showed up a couple weeks ago! This one isn't dumping almost 3ft in east central Indiana, but not far from it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 CFS has really gotten warm for December. The one consistent theme is cold west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: CFS has really gotten warm for December. The one consistent theme is cold west. Teleconnections not looking too promising either for a cold eastern U.S. pattern, to be honest. Would not be surprised to see the CFS verify to some degree, although I do not expect December to necessarily blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 hours ago, WxMatt21 said: Teleconnections not looking too promising either for a cold eastern U.S. pattern, to be honest. Would not be surprised to see the CFS verify to some degree, although I do not expect December to necessarily blowtorch. We should be fine as long as we set the bar at colder than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: We should be fine as long as we set the bar at colder than last year. And that's a pretty high bar! Thank God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Teleconnections matter, until they don't. Unless the GFS buckles, the cold is coming. We are well within fantasy land for the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, Jonger said: Teleconnections matter, until they don't. Unless the GFS buckles, the cold is coming. We are well within fantasy land for the cold. It's going to get cold but I'm not sold on how deep or long lasting... yet. It appears like we are going to have mostly -PNA and little AO/NAO blocking for the next couple weeks. To me it looks like a pattern that is going to be susceptible to warm spikes mixed in with better chances for sustained cold with north/northwest extent of course. The mean storm track should be in or near our region for a while though which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: We'll see EPS > CFS IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS > CFS IMO I usually like the Euro products too but they can be off like anything else. We would've already been in winter for the past 1-2 weeks if the weeklies had their way. Fact is that the CFS nailed the very warm November and even if December ends up warmer than avg, there should be plenty of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I usually like the Euro products too but they can be off like anything else. We would've already been in winter for the past 1-2 weeks if the weeklies had their way. Fact is that the CFS nailed the very warm November and even if December ends up warmer than avg, there should be plenty of snow chances. True, I only trust Euro weeklies to week 2-3, anything pass that I don't trust. The CFS changes even more frequently, as evident by your post. I think December will have plenty of snow chances with lots of ups and downs. Would say above normal snowfall and average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: True, I only trust Euro weeklies to week 2-3, anything pass that I don't trust. The CFS changes even more frequently, as evident by your post. I think December will have plenty of snow chances with lots of ups and downs. Would say above normal snowfall and average temps. After watching it for quite a while, I've come up with my way of interpreting the CFS. Follow the trends for the last several days of the month but put the most emphasis on the final run or two, and in general, pay less attention to precip output (especially during convective season). Looks like about 7 of the past 9 runs have the Lakes warmer than average to some degree, which is hard to ignore imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: After watching it for quite a while, I've come up with my way of interpreting the CFS. Follow the trends for the last several days of the month but put the most emphasis on the final run or two, and in general, pay less attention to precip output (especially during convective season). Looks like about 7 of the past 9 runs have the Lakes warmer than average to some degree, which is hard to ignore imo. Although that leap from the 29th to the 30th for the Midwest is pretty significant. Not sure what to think about that. I guess it is the CFS after all. I agree the trend is there, though, just think it's far too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: After watching it for quite a while, I've come up with my way of interpreting the CFS. Follow the trends for the last several days of the month but put the most emphasis on the final run or two, and in general, pay less attention to precip output (especially during convective season). Looks like about 7 of the past 9 runs have the Lakes warmer than average to some degree, which is hard to ignore imo. Yeah will have to see. Definitely an up and down pattern with no consistency. I love those types of patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Southern wave not going to play ball this weekend but fairly decent agreement on lighter precip potential with northern stream disturbance. Could bring minor measurable snow to areas that haven't had one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Had some -SN off/on here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Wall-to-wall overcast skies with highs in the 30's all day to start December. Same thing expected tomorrow, despite the meteorologists on all my TV stations having a bit of a sun bias in their forecast graphics for tomorrow. Sure that December is the cloudiest month of the year, but please let's not hope that this December rivals against December 2014 for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On Wednesday, November 30, 2016 at 4:17 PM, Hoosier said: Southern wave not going to play ball this weekend but fairly decent agreement on lighter precip potential with northern stream disturbance. Could bring minor measurable snow to areas that haven't had one yet. Looking a little more at this setup, nearly all of the column is below freezing except right at/near the surface. Marginal airmass to begin with along with developing southerly flow doesn't give much confidence in surface temps cooperating a great deal, so this is probably going to be more of a grassy surface/elevated object situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 At this time, it looks like our mild temperatures we have experienced will soon be coming to an end. That is not real surprising as where I live in Grand Rapids is almost half way between the north pole and the equator. That is one of the reason we have such variable day to day weather. Not sure how lone upcoming cold will last but one this is almost certain depending on the wind direction there should be some good lake effect. While not as warm as this fall has been (thus the lakes many not have been as warm) I did find several years that were mild in November and then became colder in December. Here is a list of some of the years. The list includes the year, the number of days in a row of at least a t of snow fall and the total snow fall (at Grand Rapids) in the number of days. The days were all below 32° for highs and lows. 1. 1958 12 days 17.5” 2. 1960 9 days 12.7” 3. 1963 19 days 17.5” 4. 1975 4 days 8.8” Not sure how much (if any) we will get out of this upcoming first cold after a mild November but past history says we should have several inches (or more) after the cold settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The system sneaking up from the southwest Saturday night/Sunday continues to trend wetter on the models. We have a chance to get an inch or two of snow if we can remain snow. The atmosphere will be right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: The system sneaking up from the southwest Saturday night/Sunday continues to trend wetter on the models. We have a chance to get an inch or two of snow if we can remain snow. The atmosphere will be right on the line. Agreed, this one could surprise a bit. I'm headed to the Bears game on Sunday to watch two terrible teams play, so I'm obviously hoping for snow. Cold rain and bad football is a crap combo. Regardless, whatever sticks won't be around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: Agreed, this one could surprise a bit. I'm headed to the Bears game on Sunday to watch two terrible teams play, so I'm obviously hoping for snow. Cold rain and bad football is a crap combo. Regardless, whatever sticks won't be around long. LOT going 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 UKMET is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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