December 2016 Temperature Forecast Contest

[Roger Smith]

The final month of the 2016 contest sees very close races in both the "original six" and western contests; Don Sutherland has a bit of a lead going into the all nine final roundup. See November thread for scoring updates, last time I looked it was a matter of a few points separating top thrree or four in both divisions. 

So the challenge for December is to predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

This is also the first month of the 2016-17 "four seasons" portion of the forthcoming 2017 contest year. As a result, I am publicizing this forecast contest in all the regional threads. I am hoping to restore the numbers back to at least 30 forecasters, if you can think of any members of the forum who might enjoy this challenge, send them a PM with this link. 

Late penalties as always, 1% for every 2 hours or portion after the deadline to 18z 2nd, then increased to 1% per hour until we reach the expiration of scoring by 04z 6th. 

Scoring rules (for new entrants) -- each location is worth 100 points. You receive 2 point deductions for every 0.1 deg error. But if the actual value turns out to be 5.1 (pos or neg) or larger, points fall off at a rate of 1 point per 0.1 deg in two zones, 5.0 to actual, and a similar zone 0.0 to x.x -- example, if actual anomaly is 7.0, then one point scoring deduction zones are 0.0 to 2.0 and 5.0 to 7.0. Example of how this scores: you predict +4.5, the actual is +7.0. You lose ten points for being under +5.0 and a further twenty for the range 5.0 to 7.0 ... your score is 70. If you had predicted +8.0, your score would be 90. 

The contest year is the calendar year, but as noted above, there is a "four seasons" component, entrants receive points (10, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1) for a top ten finish each season. The 2017 contest year winter portion starts with this month, Dec 2016. The main contest is scored by the original six stations, the three western stations, and all nine. Scoring is provided as quickly as possible and from the foundation of provisional scoring near the end of the month based on projected anomalies as we track changes in the actual and forecast values. Scoring is usually updated by the end of the first day of the next month. We also track "extreme forecasts" which are those successful forecasts near the limits of the range of forecasts. You would be surprised how many months qualify for this, more than half since we started tracking this in 2014. That means that, on average, about six months out of ten will see a high score from either the extreme forecast or the second most extreme (those are the conditions for the month and forecasts to qualify). 

[Tom]

DCA:  -0.8

NYC:  -0.9

BOS:  -0.9

ORD:  -1.9

ATL:  +0.1

IAH:  +0.7

DEN:  -1.8 

PHX:  +0.4

SEA:  -1.6

 

 

[dmillz25]

DCA:  +1.5

NYC:  +1.3

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +1.5

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  -2.0

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  -1.3

[Maxim]

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.5

IAH: 0.0

DEN: -1.0

PHX: +0.5

SEA: -1.5

[Rjay]

DCA:  +1.0

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:   +0.1

ATL:  +0.5

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  -1.0 

PHX:  -0.1

SEA:  -2.0

 

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.1

NYC: +1.3

BOS:  +1.7

ORD:  -1.2

ATL:  +2.1

IAH:  -0.5

DEN:  -2.8 

PHX:  -0.7

SEA:  -2.6

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -0.9

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.0

DEN: 0.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -1.2

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.4

NYC: +0.7

BOS:  +0.3

ORD:  -0.1

ATL:  +0.9

IAH:  -0.3

DEN:  -1.8 

PHX:  -0.5

SEA:  -1.0

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

0.5        0.5        0.0            0.5        0.5        -0.5        -1.0      -1.0       -1.0 

[wxallannj]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.4      +1.6       +0.9        +0.8     +1.4       +1.5        +0.7     +1.0      +2.2 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+2.4 __ +2.1 __ +1.5 ___ +1.8 ___ +1.9 __ +1.0 ____ -1.0 __ -0.7 ___ -1.5

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.8 _ +0.9 __ +1.2 _____ +1.8 __ -0.5 __ +1.1 ______ +0.0 _ +2.1 __ +1.2

[so_whats_happening]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.1__ +0.7___ +0.5_____ +1.4___ -0.6___+0.4_____+0.7___ -0.6___ -0.8

 

First time doing something like this figured give it a try

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX ___ SEA

+0.7 __ +0.6 __ +1.0 ___ +1.3 ___ +1.0 __ +3.2 ____ -3.2 __ -1.1 ___ -0.4

[Roger Smith]

--1.0 __ --1.2 __ --1.5 ___ --2.5 __ --1.5 __ 0.0 ____ +2.5 __ --0.7 __ --0.3

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA__NYC__BOS    ORD__ ATL___IAH   DEN__PHX__SEA

+2.4__+2.2__+2.1   +1.3__+3.1__+0.8    -1.6__-0.4__-1.9

[wxdude64]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -0.7

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.0

DEN: -0.8

PHX: -0.4

SEA: -1.3

[blazess556]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.1

BOS:  +1.5

ORD:  -1.1

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  -0.4

DEN:  -2.6

PHX:  -0.6

SEA:  -2.4

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +1.9

BOS:  +1.8

ORD:  -1.0

ATL:  +2.5

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  -2.0

PHX:  -2.0

SEA:  -3.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for December 2016

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland ________+2.5 _+1.9 _+1.0 __ --0.9 _+1.9 _+1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _--1.2

H2Otown__WX ___________+2.4 _+2.2 _+2.1 __ +1.3 _+3.1 _+0.8 ___ --1.6 _--0.4 _--1.9

DonSutherland.1 __________+2.4 _+2.1 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.7 _--1.5 

Maxim __________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _+0.5 _--1.5

Midlo Snow Maker __(-1%)__+2.0 _+1.9 _+1.8 __ --1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 ___ --2.0 _--2.0 _--3.0

wxdude64 _______________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.0 __ --0.7 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___ --0.8 _--0.4 _--1.3

Dmillz25 ________________ +1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.0 _+1.0 _--1.3

wxallannj ________________+1.4 _+1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _+1.4 _+1.5 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+2.2 

BKViking ____ (-6%) ______ +1.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+2.1 _+1.3 ___ --2.4 _--1.6 _--3.0

Stebo ___________________+1.1 _+1.3 _+1.7 __ --1.2 _+2.1 _--0.5 ___ --2.8 _--0.7 _--2.6

 

Consensus _______________+1.1 _+1.1 _+1.0 __ +0.1 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.3

 

so_whats_happening ______ +1.1 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ +1.4 _--0.6 _+0.4 ___ +0.7 _--0.6 _--0.8

blazess556 _______________+1.0 _+1.1 _+1.5 __ --1.1 _+2.0 _--0.4 ___ --2.6 _--0.6 _--2.4

RJay ___________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.1 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.1 _--2.0

Mallow _________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+1.2 __ +1.8 _--0.5 _+1.1 ____ 0.0 _+2.1 _+1.2 

RodneyS ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +1.3 _+1.0 _+3.2 ___ --3.2 _--1.1 _--0.4

SD ____________________ +0.5 _+0.5 __ 0.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _--0.5 ___ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0

hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.4 _+0.7 _+0.3 __ --0.1 _+0.9 _--0.3 ___ --1.8 _--0.5 _--1.0

 

Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Tom ___________________ --0.8 _--0.9 _--0.9 __ --1.9 _+0.1 _+0.7 ___ --1.8 _+0.4 _--1.6

Roger Smith _____________ --1.0 _--1.2 _--1.5 __ --2.5 _ --1.5__0.0 ___ +2.5 _--0.7 _--0.3

_____________________________________________________________

welcome (back) to H2Otown_WX and so_whats_happening, I have set up the table of entries as usual with highest and lowest forecasts color coded, and the Consensus is the median value, now the 10th ranked values for each location. (full regular field on hand now ... it's going to be a dogfight to the end).

 

[bkviking]

Late, but want to get in if I can Roger. 

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +0.5

BOS:  +0.5

ORD:  -1.4

ATL:  +2.1

IAH:  +1.3

DEN:  -2.4

PHX:  -1.6

SEA:  -3.0

 

[Roger Smith]

No problem, always hate to impose late penalties but you're not that late, I am calculating 6% for 12 hours. 

On the sort of forecasts I make, that wouldn't even be noticeable.

 

(consensus reset will be worked out in table, anyone looking for table of entries scroll back two posts) ...

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

First reports on the developing anomalies ... to be updated again in a new post after 15 days.

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_________ (7d) __________ +4.2_ +2.8_ +1.9 ___ +0.9_ +2.7_ --3.1 ____ --6.9_ --1.9_ --1.6

________ (p10d) _________ +1.5_ +0.7_ --0.3 ___ --1.9_ --0.4_ --5.0 ____ --7.0_ --0.5_ --2.7

________ (p12d) _________ +1.5_ +0.1_ --0.9 ___ --2.4_ --0.3_ --2.4 ____ --5.7_ +0.6_ --2.3

 

________ (p19d) _________ --1.5_ --2.5_ --3.5 ___ --8.5_ --0.1_ +1.0 ____ --4.5_ --0.5_ --4.7

________ (p29d) _________ --1.0_ --2.0_ --3.0 ___ --5.5_ --0.5_ --0.2 ____ --3.0_ +1.0_ --2.5

8th to 13th _ (the 8 to 16 day projections were based on a highly variable pattern on the east coast and deepening cold from ORD to SEA, by 13th this had moved into the 7-day outlook numbers, the trend past 21st looking on balance a bit milder at times, obviously these are very speculative numbers at this point with some days +10 and some -15 during the period)

_ (13th _ PHX will drift up to about +2 before falling back around 17th). _ (13th) IAH will be around +2.5 by 17th then fall back.

______ snowfalls to date (continuous edit when new data require changes)

______ (snow to Dec 13) ___ 0.0 __ 0.4 __ 1.2 ____14.3 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 3.4 __ 0.0 __ 1.0

NEXT UPDATE IN NEW POST ON FRIDAY 16th BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE EDITED WHEN REQUIRED

[H2Otown_WX]

Through the first ten days of the month:

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +0.7

BOS: -0.3

ORD: -1.9

ATL: -0.4

IAH: -5.0

DEN: -7.0

PHX: -0.5

SEA: -2.7

[Roger Smith]

CONTINUING THE ANOMALY TRACKER FROM TWO POSTS BACK ... UPDATES DAILY NOW TO FINALS

 

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

________ (10d) __________ +1.5_ +0.7_ --0.3 ___ --1.9_ --0.4_ --5.0 ____ --7.0_ --0.5_ --2.7

________ (15d) __________ +0.9_ --0.7_ --1.4 ___ --5.7_ --0.1_ --0.8 ____ --4.7_ +2.3_ --2.9

________ (18d) __________ +0.6_ --1.3_ --2.0 ___ --7.1_ +0.4_ --0.7 ____ --7.4_ +2.2_ --4.1

________ (20d) ___________ 0.0_ --2.1_ --2.6 ___ --7.9_ --0.1_ --1.7 ____ --6.3_ +2.4_ --3.4

________ (22d) __________ +0.4_ --1.6_ --2.0 ___ --6.9_ +0.7_ --0.7 ____ --5.2_ +2.9_ --3.2

________ (24d)__________ +0.6 _ --0.9_ --1.2 ___ --5.7_ +1.6_ +1.0 ____ --4.0_ +2.8_ --3.1

________ (26d)__________ +1.0 _ --0.2_ --0.8 ___ --4.3_ +2.7_ +2.7 ____ --3.6_ +2.1_ --3.1

________ (27d)__________ +1.8 _ +0.4_ --0.1 ___ --4.2_ +3.4_ +3.4 ____ --3.3_ +2.0_ --2.9

________ (28d)__________ +2.0 _ +0.5_ +0.1 ___ --3.8_ +3.8_ +4.1 ____ --3.1_ +1.9_ --2.7

________ (29d)__________ +2.1 _ +0.7_ +0.3 ___ --3.4_ +4.0_ +4.2 ____ --2.9_ +2.2_ --2.5

________ (30d)__________ +2.1 _ +0.7_ +0.4 ___ --3.1_ +3.9_ +4.0 ____ --2.3_ +2.3_ --2.4

________ (31d) _________+2.1_+0.8__+0.5 ___--2.7_+3.6_+4.2 ___ --2.2_ +2.5_ --2.6

 

... 84 for a new record at IAH on 26th, the old record was 80 set last year ... 83 on 27th also ... with 82 on the 28th ... the past week (22nd-28th) has averaged 20.4 above normal at IAH !!!

... and it was 68 for DCA on 27th.

<<< FINAL ANOMALIES ARE NOW POSTED AS OF 1430z ON JANUARY 1st, DECEMBER SCORING TABLES ARE UPDATED AND THE DETAILED ANNUAL TABLES WILL BE AVAILABLE EITHER LATE JANUARY 1st or EARLY MONDAY 2nd. HAPPY NEW YEAR >>>

 

______ snowfalls to date (continuous edit when new data require changes)

______ (snow to Dec 31) ___ 0.0 __ 3.2 __ 5.9 ____17.7 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____11.4 __ 0.0 __ 1.0

 

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for December 2016

Best scores in bold. Underlined italic scores are best among regular year-long forecasters and will count in the annual table as best scores.

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL

 

BKViking ________________86 _ 94_100 ____ 280 ____ 74 _ 70 _ 42 ____ 186 __466

___________ (-6%) ______ 81 _ 88 _ 94 ____ 263 ____ 70 _ 66 _ 39 ____ 175 ____ 438

wxdude64 _______________92 _ 82 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 60 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 162 ____ 426

Damage in Tolland ________92 _ 78 _ 90 ____ 260 ____ 64 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 166 ____ 426

Midlo Snow Maker*_(-1%)__97 _ 77 _ 73 ____ 247 ____ 65 _ 77 _ 36 ____ 178____ 425

RodneyS ________________72 _ 96 _ 90 ____ 258 ____ 20 _ 48 _ 80 ____ 148 ____ 406

 

Consensus _______________80 _ 94 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 44 _ 58 _ 36____ 138 ____ 402

 

blazess556 ______________ 78 _ 94 _ 80 ____ 252 ____ 68 _ 68 _ 08 ____ 144 ____ 396

wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 84 _ 92 ____ 262 ____ 30 _ 56 _ 46 ____ 132 ____ 394  

Stebo __________________ 80 _ 90 _ 76 ____ 246 ____ 70 _ 70 _ 06 ____ 146 ____ 392

Dmillz25 ________________ 88 _ 90 _ 90 ____ 268 ____ 16 _ 68 _ 36 ____ 120 ____ 388

RJay ___________________ 78 _ 96 _ 90 ____ 264 ____ 44 _ 38 _ 36 ____ 118 ____ 382 

H2Otown__WX ___________94 _ 72 _ 68 ____ 234 ____ 20 _ 90 _ 32 ____ 142 ____ 376

hudsonvalley21 __________ 66 _ 98 _ 96 ____ 260 ____ 48 _ 46 _ 10 ____ 104 ____ 364

DonSutherland.1 __________94 _ 74 _ 80 ____ 248 ____ 10 _ 66 _ 36 ____ 112 ____ 360

Maxim __________________ 98 _ 76 _ 80 ____ 254 ____ 26 _ 58 _ 16 ____ 100 ____ 354

so_whats_happening ______ 80 _ 98_100____ 278 ____ 18 _ 16 _ 24 ____ 058 ____ 336 

SD _____________________68 _ 94 _ 90 ____ 252 ____ 36 _ 38 _ 06 _____ 080 ____ 332

Tom ___________________ 42 _ 66 _ 72 _____ 180 ____ 84 _ 30 _ 30 ____ 144 ____ 324 

Mallow _________________ 74 _ 98 _ 86 _____ 258 ____ 10 _ 18 _ 38 ____ 066 ____ 324 

 

Normal _________________ 58 _ 84 _ 90_____232 ____ 46 _ 28 _ 16 ____ 090 ____ 322

 

Roger Smith _____________38 _ 60 _ 60 _____ 158 ____ 96 _ 00 _ 16 ____ 112 ____ 270

*note: Midlo Snow Maker scores above 50 are reduced by 1 point as shown. 

_____________________________________________________________

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests (Dec 2016)

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL __________ All nine (= rank)

 

Dmillz25 ________________ 96 _ 70 _ 74 _______240 ____________ 628 (= 2)

Tom ___________________ 92 _ 58 _ 80 _______ 230 ____________ 554 (=13) 

blazess556 ______________ 92 _ 38 _ 96 _______ 226 ____________ 622 (= 4)

Stebo __________________ 88 _ 36_100 _______224 ____________ 616 (= 6)

H2OTown_Wx ___________ 88 _ 42 _ 86 _______ 216 ____________ 592 (= 9)

Maxim __________________76 _ 60 _ 78 _______ 214 ____________ 568 (=11) 

RJay ___________________ 76 _ 48 _ 88 _______ 212 ____________ 594 (= 8)

hudsonvalley21 ___________92 _ 40 _ 68 _______ 200 ____________ 564 (=12)

Damage in Tolland ________56 _ 70 _ 72 _______ 198 ____________ 624 (= 3) 

Midlo Snow Maker _ (-1%) _ 95_ 10 _ 91 _______ 196 ____________ 621 (= 5) 

BKViking ________________96 _ 18 _ 92 _ 206

____________ (-6%) ______90 _ 17 _ 86 _______ 193 ____________631  (= 1) 

DonSutherland.1 _________ 76 _ 36 _ 78 _______ 190 ____________ 550 (=14) 

 

Consensus ______________ 76 _ 40 _ 74 _______ 190 ____________ 592 (= t 9)

 

wxdude64 _______________72 _ 42 _ 74 _______ 188 ____________ 614 (= 7)

SD _____________________ 76 _ 30 _ 68 _______ 174 ____________ 506 (=16)

Mallow __________________56 _ 92 _ 24 _______ 172 ____________ 496 (=17)

RodneyS ________________ 80 _ 28 _ 56 _______ 164 ____________ 570 (=10)

 

Normal __________________56 _ 50 _ 48 _______ 154 ____________ 476 (=16)

 

so_whats_happening ______ 42 _ 38 _ 64 _______ 144 ____________ 480 (=18)

wxallannj ________________42 _ 70 _ 04 _______ 116 ____________ 510 (=15) 

Roger Smith _____________ 06 _ 36 _ 54 _______ 096 ____________ 366 (= 19)

___________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

Summary of annual totals for 2016 

More detailed tables with station scores and best score summaries will be posted by early Monday Jan 2nd.

 

(All nine locations)

 

Rank/ FORECASTER ___ SCORE (diff) ____ Rank/ Total score before penalties (shown if applicable)

 

1 DonSutherland.1 ____ 7138 (leader) _______ 1

... (2) consensus _____ 6973 (-165) ________ (2)

2 Damage in Tolland __ 6926 (-212) _________ 3

3 wxdude64 _________ 6918 (-220) _________ 2 ... 6956

4 Mallow ____________ 6835 (-303) _________6

5 Maxim ____________ 6789 (-349) _________ 8

6 RodneyS __________ 6750 (-388) _________ 7 ... 6798

7 wxallannj __________6712 (-426) _________  5 ... 6890

8 Rjay ______________ 6677 (-461) _________ 9 ... 6701

9 BKViking ___________6670 (-468) _________ 4 ... 6919 

10 Midlo Snow Maker __ 6576 (-562) ________ 11 ... 6610

11 Blazess556 ________ 6569 (-569) ________10 ... 6616

12 hudsonvalley21 ____ 6514 (-624) _________12

13 DMillz25 __________ 6230 (-908) _________ 13

14 Roger Smith _______ 5954 (-1184) ________14

15 Tom _____________ 5862 (-1276) ________ 15

16 SD _______________5854 (-1284) ________ 16

17 Stebo ____________ 5751 (-1387) ________ 17  ... 5768

... (18) Normal _______ 5164 (-1974) ________ (18)

18 Tenman Johnson**_ 5077 (-2061) ________ 18

19 OHweather**** ____4433 (-2705) ________ 19 ... 4471

 

 

(Original six locations)

 

1 DonSutherland.1 _____ 4937 (leader) _______ 2

2 wxdude64 __________ 4909 ( -28) _________ 1 ... 4938

3 Damage in Tolland ___ 4889 ( -48) _________ 5

4 RodneyS ____________4868 ( -69) _________ 4 ... 4902

... (5) consensus ______ 4853 ( -84) _________ (5)

5 BKViking ____________4752 (-185) __________3 ... 4912

6 Mallow _____________ 4701 (-236) __________8

7 blazess556 __________4687 (-250) __________ 6 ... 4722

8 Maxim _____________ 4683 (-254) __________ 9

9 Rjay _______________ 4633 (-304) __________10 ... 4649

10 wxallannj __________ 4570 (-367) __________ 7 ... 4703

11 hudsonvalley21 _____ 4565 (-372) __________11

12 Dmillz25 ___________ 4450 (-487) _________ 13

13 Midlo Snow Maker ___ 4427 (-510) _________ 12 ... 4453

14 Stebo _____________ 4328 (-609) __________14 ... 4343

15 SD ________________4149 (-788) _________ 15

16 Roger Smith ________ 4118 (-819) _________ 16

17 Tom _______________4067 (-870) _________ 17

18 Tenman Johnson** ___3574 (-1363) ________ 18

... (19)Normal _________ 3520 (-1417) ________ (19)

19 OHweather**** _____ 3035 (-1902) ________ 19 ... 3065

 

(western three locations)

 

1 DonSutherland.1 _____ 2201 (leader) __________1

2 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 2149 ( -52) ___________ 3 ... 2157

3 wxallannj ___________ 2142 ( -59) ___________ 2 ... 2187

4 Mallow _____________ 2134 ( -67) ___________ 4

... (5) consensus _______ 2120 (-81) ___________ (5)

5 Maxim ______________ 2106 ( -95) ___________5

6 Rjay ________________ 2044 (-157) __________ 6 ... 2052

7 Damage in Tolland ____ 2037 (-164) __________ 7

8 wxdude64 ___________ 2009 (-192) __________ 8... 2018

9 hudsonvalley21 _______ 1949 (-252) __________10

10 BKViking ____________1918 (-283) __________ 9 ... 2007

t 11 RodneyS ___________1882 (-319) __________11 ... 1896

t 11 blazess556 _________1882 (-319) __________12 ... 1894

13 Roger Smith ________ 1836 (-365) __________ 13

14 Tom _______________ 1795 (-406) __________14

15 DMillz25 ____________ 1780 (-421) __________15

16 SD _________________1705 (-496) __________16

... (17) Normal _________ 1644 (-557) _________ (17)

17 Tenman Johnson** ___ 1503 (-698) __________17

18 Stebo _______________1423 (-778) __________18 ... 1425

19 OHweather**** ______ 1358 (-843) _________ 19 ... 1366

__________________________________________

numbers in brackets are points behind leader. 

** or **** months not played

H2OTown_Wx entered Jan, Feb, Mar and Dec. In those four months, scores were compared with consensus and they ranked close to 10th in western, 15th in all nine and 18th in original six locations. Using the same comparison and pro-rating, Tenman Johnson would rank around 14th in all contests and OHweather around 9th. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

EXTREME FORECAST UPDATE

________________________________________________________

 

With four more extreme forecasts probable in December, the 2016 total will be 61 out of 108, or 57% of the cases. About 53 of those were won outright by the most extreme forecast and the other eight were scooped by second most extreme forecast with the extreme getting the "loss" in the standings. Any other outcome such as third most extreme forecast having the best score does not qualify. This month, DCA (+2.1) missed qualifying by 0.1, otherwise tied second highest forecasts (+2.4) would have shared high score with Maxim (+2.0). NYC and BOS were safely within the range of forecasts. DEN had been running colder than our extreme low forecast of --3.2 from RodneyS, but a late surge up to 2.2 passed both him and Stebo at --2.8, then also blazesss556 at --2.6 and penalty-hampered BKViking at --2.4 with high score settling at fifth most extreme Dmillz25 (--2.0).  It was a similar situation at SEA (--2.6) which faded out of contention for two tied at --3.0 (Midlo and BKViking who are both losing points on late penalties) who both finished  lower in points than Stebo (--2.6) or blazess556 (--2.4). This would have made the table at --2.8 or colder.

The other four have as expected qualified for extreme forecasts ...

 

ORD (--2.7) goes to Roger Smith (--2.5, lowest forecast)

ATL (+3.6) is a win for H2OTown_Wx (+3.1, highest forecast) 

IAH (+4.2) goes to RodneyS (+3.2, highest forecast)

PHX (+2.5) is a win for Mallow (+2.1, highest forecast) 

 

UPDATED STANDINGS (Final for 2016)
 

Damage in Tolland ____9-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____8-1

Maxim _____________ 7-1

RodneyS ___________ 7-3*

Rjay _______________ 6-2

Roger Smith _________6-2

Mallow _____________ 5-0

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

dmillz25 ____________ 3-0

wxallannj ___________ 3-0*

ksammut ___________ 2-0

Blazess556 __________2-0

 

Normal _____________ 2-0

 

hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0

BKViking ___________ 1-0

OHweather __________1-0

SD ________________ 1-0

Tom _______________ 1-0

H2OTown_Wx _______ 1-0

Stebo ______________ 1-1

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus two "no decisions" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high scores, and same for wxallannj (PHX, Oct). 

Well done to Damage in Tolland (9-0) who was first overall in extreme forecasts, close second to Midlo Snow Maker (8-1) and a solid third for Maxim (7-1) who was matched in wins by RodneyS (7-3). 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

 

===--<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JAN to DEC 2016 >>>>--===

Set to 100% to prevent line overflow.

__FORECASTER ___ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

01 DonSutherland.1 __ 863 . 927 . 846 __ 2636 ___ 712 . 773 . 816 __2301 __ 4937 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY

02 wxdude64 _______ 863 . 920 . 909 __ 2692 ___ 678 . 759 . 780 __ 2217 __ 4909 __ 111111 .2. 0

03 Damage in Tolland _927 . 884 . 834 __ 2645 ___ 703 . 865 . 676 __ 2244 __ 4889__311130 .1.2  JUL, NOV

04 RodneyS ________ 817 . 912 . 898 __ 2627 ___ 628 . 727 . 886 __ 2241 __ 4868__ 221033. 2 . 1

 

05 Consensus_______ 831 . 950 . 868 __ 2649 ___ 699 . 753 . 752 __ 2204 __ 4853 __ 001000 . 0 . 0

 

05 BKViking ________ 746 . 906 . 853 __ 2505 ___ 763 . 770 . 714 __ 2247 __ 4752 __ 000210 . 0 .1 JAN.DEC

06 Mallow___________733 . 916 . 878 __ 2527 ___ 737 . 591 . 846 __ 2108 __ 4701 __ 120003. 0 . 0 .

07 blazess556 _______771 . 922 . 866 __ 2559 ___ 624 . 778 . 726 __ 2128 __ 4687 __ 001011 . 0 . 0

08 Maxim __________ 785 . 812 . 888 __ 2485 ___ 661 . 773 . 764 __ 2198 __ 4683 __ 202221 . 1 . 3

_________________________________________________________________________________________ MAR,SEP,OCT

09 Rjay ____________872 . 833 . 747 __ 2452 ___ 740 . 806 . 635 __ 2181 __ 4633 __ 321211 . 1 . 1 ..AUG

10 wxallannj ________ 784 . 877 . 849 __ 2510 ___ 622 . 669 . 769 __ 2060 __ 4570 __010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR

 

11 hudsonvalley21 ___ 737 . 888 . 876 __ 2501 ___ 739 . 679 . 646 __ 2064 __ 4565 __ 012100 . 0 . 0

12 dmillz25 _________ 790 . 854 . 800 __ 2444 ___ 657 . 711 . 638 __ 2006 __ 4450 __ 021201 . 3 . 0

13 MidloSnowMaker __786 . 826 . 768 __ 2380 ___ 695 . 702 . 650 __ 2047 __ 4427 __ 011020 . 1 . 0 ..FEB

14 Stebo___________ 740 . 813 . 786 __ 2339 ___ 595 . 742 . 652 __ 1989 __ 4328 __ 001001 . 1 . 1

15 SD _____________695 . 838 . 782 __ 2315 ___ 566 . 596 . 672 __ 1834 __ 4149 __ 00110. 0 . 0

16 Roger Smith _____ 753 . 732 . 690 __ 2175 ___ 664 . 589 . 690 __ 1943 __ 4118 __ 400201 . 0 . 0

17 Tom____________ 673 . 762 . 744 __ 2179 ___ 619 . 587 . 682 __ 1888 __ 4067 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

18 Tenman Johnson@ 591 . 628 . 644 __ 1863 ___ 562 . 571 . 578 __ 1711 __ 3574 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

19 Normal__________ 572 . 688 . 680 __ 1940 ___ 500 . 420 . 660 __ 1580 __ 3520 __ 000001 . 1 . 0

19 OHweather #_____ 487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 __ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0

20 ksammut & ______ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 __ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

______________________________________________

@  missed two months (Nov, Dec)

# missed four months (Sept,Oct,Nov,Dec)

& missed six months (July to Dec)

Other best scores from December include NYC, BOS and east for so_whats_happening and ATL for H2OTown_Wx,

... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables including two entrants this month, H20Town_Wx played Jan to Mar, annual totals are 586 east, 610 central, 1196 total. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

== << Updated Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Dec 2016 >> ==

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 DonSutherland.1 _______ 662 _ 630 _ 909 ____ 2201 _____ 0 0 2 _ Apr ___ 7138 (= 1) __ MAY, NOV

02 Midlo Snow Maker______ 630 _ 661 _ 858 ____ 2149 _____ 1 2 3 _ Mar ____6576 (=10) ___ FEB

03 wxallannj _____________ 618 _ 759 _ 765 ____  2142 _____ 0 1 1 ________ 6712 (= 7) ____ APR

04 Mallow _______________ 648 _ 693 _ 793 ____ 2134 _____ 3 2 0_Sep,Nov _ 6835 (= 4)

 

05 Consensus ___________ 677 _ 638 _ 805 ____ 2120 _____ 0 0 1 _ Jul ____ 6973 (= 2) ___ JUL

 

05 Maxim _______________ 573 _ 656 _ 877 ____ 2106 _____ 0 1 2 _ Sep ___ 6789 (= 5) _ MAR,SEP,OCT

06 Rjay _________________627 _ 619 _ 798 ____ 2044 _____ 1 0 1 _ Oct ___ 6677 (= 8) ___ AUG

07 Damage in Tolland ______604 _ 572 _ 861 ____ 2037 _____ 1 0 1 _ Jun ___ 6926 (= 2) ___ JUN

08 wxdude64 ____________ 659 _ 609 _ 741 ____ 2009 _____ 0 1 2 _ Jan ___ 6918 (= 3) ___ JAN

09 hudsonvalley21 ________ 658 _ 558 _ 733 ____ 1949 _____ 0 1 0 _ Jul ___ 6514 (=12)

10 BKViking _____________ 625 _ 548 _ 745 ____ 1918 _____ 0 0 0 ________ 6670 (= 9) ___ DEC

 

t 11 RodneyS ____________598 _ 593 _ 691 ____ 1882 _____ 2 0 0 _ May ___ 6750 (= 6)

t 11 blazess556 __________ 596 _ 633 _ 653 ____ 1882 _____ 1 0 0 _________6569 (=11)

13 Roger Smith __________ 469 _ 638 _ 729 ____ 1836 _____ 1 2 0 _ Aug ___ 5954 (=14)

14 Tom _________________ 595 _ 575 _ 625 ____1795 _____ 0 0 1 ________ 5862 (=15)

15 dmillz25 ______________561 _ 518 _ 701 ____1780 _____ 1 0 0 _ Dec ___ 6230 (=13)

16 SD __________________ 531 _ 552 _ 622 ____1705 _____ 0 0 1 _  Jul  ___ 5854 (=16)

 

17 Normal _______________566 _ 546 _ 532 ____ 1644 ____ 1 0 1 _ Aug ____ 5164 (=18)

 

17 Tenman Johnson@@____ 487 _ 582 _ 434 ____1503 _____ 2 1 1 _ Feb ___ 5077 (=18)

18 Stebo ________________ 485 _ 526 _ 412 ____ 1423 _____ 0 1 1 _______ 5751 (=17)

19 OHweather@@@@_____ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 _____ 1 0 1 _ Jul  __ 4433 (=19) ___ JUL

20 ksammut@@@@@@___ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _____ 0 1 0 ________2971 (=20)

______________________________________________________________________

@ for missing months ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables or in this month's scoring table.

H2OTown_Wx played four months and had a total score of 623 western, 1819 all nine.