What Kind Of Difference Will a Year Make??

[ChescoWx]

Happy Holidays to all!

As you all know last holiday season was not just warm....it was unprecedented. Some interesting facts/numbers of that season of warmth.

• Between Thanksgiving and Christmas there were only 5 days (out of 30) that recorded a nighttime low below freezing (average low during period 23 to 32)
• December's average temperature of 48.0 was an incredible 14.0 degrees above the average December Chester County temps (123 years of local climate data)
• In 123 years only 2 December months even averaged above 40 for the month (1982 at 41.9 and 2006 at 41.0)
• All time Chester County Record highs (1894 to Present) were recorded on 5 days with the highest being the 69.7 reading on the 13th
• 10 high elevation records for the county (1983 to Present - over 650 feet ASL) were recorded during December - this included each day between December 23rd to December 27th
• Christmas eve saw temps during the day top out in the upper 50's and then rise into the 60's by 530pm....temps continued to rise all Christmas eve - topping out at 65.3 just before midnight (with my windows open!)

So what will this season bring? Well I am going to print next week with my weather article for East Nantmeal Township next week. So, while my holiday and winter season forecast will be much colder than 2015-16 (how is that for going out on a ledge?) December of course being much colder I am overall going for a near normal December through April winter season outlook above 650 ft

• December -1.0 (avg. 34.5) Snow 6.0" (avg. 5.0")
• January +1.0 (29.7) Snow 10.0" (11.7")
• February -1.5 (31.8) Snow 18.0" (12.6")
• March  -2.0 (40.5) Snow 6.0" (5.4")
• April +0.5 (51.1) Snow 1.0" (1.1")

Total Seasonal Snow forecast for East Nantmeal Township 41.3" (including 0.3" so far). Average Seasonal Snowfall (1984-2016) here in Chester County above 650 feet is 37.3".

So a slightly colder than normal winter and a near to slightly above normal snow season...now back to the professionals

[RedSky]

Difficult to get a feel for the oncoming winter this year the outlooks I have seen run the spectrum from cold and snowy to benign and mild. Common theme is a December on the cold side, yet the month will have to overcome what looks like a significant positive departure the first week. A couple atmospheric factors give favor to a good snowy winter but how snowy can it be with the persistent drought. Should be interesting.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 11/23/2016 at 11:12 PM, RedSky said:

Difficult to get a feel for the oncoming winter this year the outlooks I have seen run the spectrum from cold and snowy to benign and mild. Common theme is a December on the cold side, yet the month will have to overcome what looks like a significant positive departure the first week. A couple atmospheric factors give favor to a good snowy winter but how snowy can it be with the persistent drought. Should be interesting.

 

 

I'm thinking this is going to be an 'average' type of winter when all is said and done, which isnt necessarily a bad thing. A few snow to mix to rain storms along I95, several 2-4"/3-6" events. Average temps for DJF as a whole avg. I dont see the warmth of last year extended nor do I see the extended periods of extreme bitter cold.