2016-2017 Lake Effect Snow Thread

[weatherbo]

Great pics Will!  Looks like February.

Snowed lightly off and on all day... haven't measured but it looks like 2.5" and  maybe 3-4 more coming.  Looking forward to big snows next week after the storm.

took this along side the road today during a break in the snow showers.  The mid-winter feel is here and I love it.  3 more solid snow months left. A good chance Calumet breaks 300"... not that that's rare or anything, but after next week-10 days, could be adding another 50-70" for the persistent belts..

 

[josh_4184]

Picked up 5 inches already in about 4 hours here still getting hammered. 

[bowtie`]

Hey Willh! Are steel roofs the preferred way to go up there with all the snow loads?

[Stebo]

48 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Hey Willh! Are steel roofs the preferred way to go up there with all the snow loads?

Yes, steel roofs are big for the entire UP for that very reason.

[josh_4184]

Been getting dumped on all evening will be well past 12' by tomorrow morning.   

[IWXwx]

4 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Been getting dumped on all evening will be well past 12' by tomorrow morning.   

Congrats on the dumping. I'll be able to hear the sounds of sleds from down here.

[josh_4184]

Looking pretty good for later this week.

 

Quote

LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017

...Significant lake effect snow likely for mid to late week...

Arctic air pours across the Great Lakes creating excellent over lake
instability as 850 mb temperatures head down to around -20 C. In
addition, models continue to indicate that moisture will be rather
robust (850-700 mb rh> 80 percent). Lastly, short waves move through
the sharply cyclonic flow aloft. Model soundings are very impressive
looking with inversion heights of about 6500 feet or so. This should
all add up to significant amounts of lake effect snow...as well as
blowing and drifting snow (especially Wednesday). The flow looks
like it locks into the west northwest for Wednesday into Thursday
with a slow backing into the west Thursday night and maybe even
southwest Friday. Winds then look to veer back into the west
northwest or even the northwest Friday night into Saturday. All in
all am very impressed with the setup which should yield significant
accumulations of snow (maybe measured in feet when it`s all said and
done) in the normal snowbelts centered around Gaylord. It will be
cold with highs only in the teens at best.

 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Looking pretty good for later this week.

 

 

That AFD is pure word porn!

Def going to be some impressive multi-day totals in most all Michigan Lake belts.  Your area and the nw UP are going to clean up.  I'm ready too since the mon-tue storm turded out.

[RogueWaves]

On 1/1/2017 at 0:07 PM, josh_4184 said:

Looking pretty good for later this week.

 

 

Couple years ago you were envious that all the synoptic set-ups were missing yby and hitting downstate and all you were getting was LES. I'm sure there's many who'd trade places now. Without the lake, what kind of winter would you be having so far?

[josh_4184]

27 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Couple years ago you were envious that all the synoptic set-ups were missing yby and hitting downstate and all you were getting was LES. I'm sure there's many who'd trade places now. Without the lake, what kind of winter would you be having so far?

Considering I have about 150" a year I would say 70 percent of that is Lake Effect or Lake Enhanced so that comes as no surprise that almost all my snow so far has been LES, I certainly have nothing to complain about. Although I would prefer the utters to stay away would rather have no synoptic systems than getting these warm cutters. With all that being said ready to see what this week brings. 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Considering I have about 150" a year I would say 70 percent of that is Lake Effect or Lake Enhanced so that comes as no surprise that almost all my snow so far has been LES, I certainly have nothing to complain about. Although I would prefer the utters to stay away would rather have no synoptic systems than getting these warm cutters. With all that being said ready to see what this week brings. 

Me too, hate those things! But seriously, you're looking great most of this week! What kind of depth do you currently have?

[Jonger]

8 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Couple years ago you were envious that all the synoptic set-ups were missing yby and hitting downstate and all you were getting was LES. I'm sure there's many who'd trade places now. Without the lake, what kind of winter would you be having so far?

I wouldn't own a sled if the lakes weren't there. My winter temps would probably decrease by 5F too, but what good is that.

I always wondered how Wisconsin sledders did it.... They go to the UP half the damn winter.

[Jonger]

8 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Considering I have about 150" a year I would say 70 percent of that is Lake Effect or Lake Enhanced so that comes as no surprise that almost all my snow so far has been LES, I certainly have nothing to complain about. Although I would prefer the utters to stay away would rather have no synoptic systems than getting these warm cutters. With all that being said ready to see what this week brings. 

Yup, screw synoptic systems, that's good for non lake states, but we don't need them here. 

Clipper.... trough.... clipper... trough.... All winter long. That's how you do it.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Yup, screw synoptic systems, that's good for non lake states, but we don't need them here. 

Clipper.... trough.... clipper... trough.... All winter long. That's how you do it.

Feb 12-15 I'm going to the UP. haven't been there during winter in 4 years (last year went to traverse city, the previous 2 years didn't go anywhere due to very deep snow here).

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

I wouldn't own a sled if the lakes weren't there. My winter temps would probably decrease by 5F too, but what good is that.

I always wondered how Wisconsin sledders did it.... They go to the UP half the damn winter.

Once you're north of Wausau (~45N) in Wisconsin, the climo is solid for snowmobiling and other winter sports/recreation.  Outside of the snowbelts in NC/NW WI, the average snowfall is 50-70".  Even in a crappy winter, you can count on consistent snow cover during J and F.  In an average winter, probably around 3 months of snow cover (Dec 15 - Mar 15)...and in great winters, probably 4 months (all of DJFM).

[josh_4184]

7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Me too, hate those things! But seriously, you're looking great most of this week! What kind of depth do you currently have?

Around 24" give or take in most areas around me.

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Around 24" give or take in most areas around me.

Nice. This will be a sweet weekend for your area. Was it busy with riders this past 10 days over the holidays or did the torch on the 26th nuke that scenario even up there?

[josh_4184]

17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice. This will be a sweet weekend for your area. Was it busy with riders this past 10 days over the holidays or did the torch on the 26th nuke that scenario even up there?

Very busy, more riders then I have seen in a very long time, torch didnt hurt to bad plus we picked up about 18" more before New Years weekend which helped.

[josh_4184]

Looking pretty good for the LES belts again this week

 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Looking pretty good for the LES belts again this week

The w and wnw flow has dominated the lakes all Winter.  It's not the best fetch for me.  I'm 10 miles south of Big Bay at 1580'.  Just to my west and west-northwest, the elevation is 1700-1800'.  It's like wringing out dishrag out.  How close are you to crossing to 100" mark?  I think I could here by the weekend possibly. 

The black dot is me

[josh_4184]

2 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

The w and wnw flow has dominated the lakes all Winter.  It's not the best fetch for me.  I'm 10 miles south of Big Bay at 1580'.  Just to my west and west-northwest, the elevation is 1700-1800'.  It's like wringing out dishrag out.  How close are you to crossing to 100" mark?  I think I could here by the weekend possibly. 

The black dot is me

 

APX is around 70" for the year, although I don't keep an official measurement I am probably closer to 90" for the year so far, should push 100" by end of the week.  The W N/W sure has dominated which I am not complaining as i do very well in either W N/W or NW, NNW is probably the least favorable for my locale.

[slow poke]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice. This will be a sweet weekend for your area. Was it busy with riders this past 10 days over the holidays or did the torch on the 26th nuke that scenario even up there?

The warm up the day after Christmas wasn't to bad up there north of West Branch and west of I-75 where they had a decent amount of snow already. Our place is about 30 miles south of Gaylord and we picked up about 10" of fresh snow the week between Christmas and New Years to add to the 8"-10" of rock hard base that was left after the warm up. It was one of the best Christmas break weeks we have had weather wise up there in years. It's crazy how little you have to drive south to get to bare ground though, 10 miles south of West Branch is pretty much bare. In a 1/2 hr drive you can go from looking like the dead of winter with a foot of snow on the ground to looking like early spring with bare ground and even some greenish grass. The best snow we found the past two weeks while snowmobiling the Houghton Lake, Gaylord, Lewiston, Boyne Falls, Traverse City areas was near Starvation Lake/Kalkaska area, 2' in that area easy. We seen a bunch of sleds out and about but we thought it would have been way busier considering how good the conditions were and being Christmas break week. 

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

The warm up the day after Christmas wasn't to bad up there north of West Branch and west of I-75 where they had a decent amount of snow already. Our place is about 30 miles south of Gaylord and we picked up about 10" of fresh snow the week between Christmas and New Years to add to the 8"-10" of rock hard base that was left after the warm up. It was one of the best Christmas break weeks we have had weather wise up there in years. It's crazy how little you have to drive south to get to bare ground though, 10 miles south of West Branch is pretty much bare. In a 1/2 hr drive you can go from looking like the dead of winter with a foot of snow on the ground to looking like early spring with bare ground and even some greenish grass. The best snow we found the past two weeks while snowmobiling the Houghton Lake, Gaylord, Lewiston, Boyne Falls, Traverse City areas was near Starvation Lake/Kalkaska area, 2' in that area easy. We seen a bunch of sleds out and about but we thought it would have been way busier considering how good the conditions were and being Christmas break week. 

Truly a fantastic thing how the high elevations of NMI snow-belts can maintain snow cover against all odds. And, that invisible line you speak of some years it's like going between two seasons. Played tourist in Jan '90 in TC the winter before I moved there. Was basically bare ground until just before West Branch area while the main snow belts further north had 2+ feet and looked like the North Pole to a (then) flat-lander troll, lol. Glad to hear y'all enjoyed some great riding conditions while we raked late season leafs.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The W/NW wind has been persistent this year. The snowbelts south of Buffalo are well over 100" on the year. Even the airport northeast of the city has quite a bit more than me. Been in the donut hole spot this year. I was able to go skiing once so far this year with the best conditions I've had in quite awhile. 2 feet of powder in the trees was awesome.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, slow poke said:

The warm up the day after Christmas wasn't to bad up there north of West Branch and west of I-75 where they had a decent amount of snow already. Our place is about 30 miles south of Gaylord and we picked up about 10" of fresh snow the week between Christmas and New Years to add to the 8"-10" of rock hard base that was left after the warm up. It was one of the best Christmas break weeks we have had weather wise up there in years. It's crazy how little you have to drive south to get to bare ground though, 10 miles south of West Branch is pretty much bare. In a 1/2 hr drive you can go from looking like the dead of winter with a foot of snow on the ground to looking like early spring with bare ground and even some greenish grass. The best snow we found the past two weeks while snowmobiling the Houghton Lake, Gaylord, Lewiston, Boyne Falls, Traverse City areas was near Starvation Lake/Kalkaska area, 2' in that area easy. We seen a bunch of sleds out and about but we thought it would have been way busier considering how good the conditions were and being Christmas break week. 

It's more crazy when you live south of West branch and have that bare ground, to think of what the landscape looked like mid December and what it looks like now.

[London snowsquall]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The W/NW wind has been persistent this year. The snowbelts south of Buffalo are well over 100" on the year. Even the airport northeast of the city has quite a bit more than me. Been in the donut hole spot this year. I was able to go skiing once so far this year with the best conditions I've had in quite awhile. 2 feet of powder in the trees was awesome.

The NW wind hasn't happened near S. Lake Huron.  LES near London is probably less than 15" on the season.  Three or four years in a row the winds can't get even get to the NW let alone stay there at least in the Dec-Jan time period when it's the biggest bang for the buck.  When the other parameters are good the winds have been overwhelmingly W or SW which gives us nada.    What is your LES total for this season as a a comparison?  

[BuffaloWeather]

45 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

The NW wind hasn't happened near S. Lake Huron.  LES near London is probably less than 15" on the season.  Three or four years in a row the winds can't get even get to the NW let alone stay there at least in the Dec-Jan time period when it's the biggest bang for the buck.  When the other parameters are good the winds have been overwhelmingly W or SW which gives us nada.    What is your LES total for this season as a a comparison?  

27.6". The Buffalo airport is at 31". Other cities throughout New York are having great years.

http://goldensnowball.com/

Perrysburg, Ellicottville, and Little Valley in the Southern Tier are at 95-110". Southeastern Erie County including Springville/Colden are near 90" as well.

That may change over the next few days but it looks to target the same locations as all season. I can't complain though since I ski and board down there.

http://www.weather.gov/buf/stormtotalsnow

 

[weatherbo]

Snow started here about an hour ago. Big fluffy flakes....2-3' going to fall just west of here by weeks end.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

LES looks to crank in southern MI for days. Will be interesting to see what we get here, but it's a foregone conclusion that the belts will see snowcover return.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

LES looks to crank in southern MI for days. Will be interesting to see what we get here, but it's a foregone conclusion that the belts will see snowcover return.

Hard for me to be excited when it looks like we will probably lose most of it again in yet another thaw next week. I find winters where the snow seems to be melting non-stop to be depressing.