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2016-2017 Lake Effect Snow Thread

BuffaloWeather

By BuffaloWeather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Hot off the press:  

...Significant lake snows developing Thursday through at least
Friday...

The main forecast concern throughout the remainder of the period
revolves around the development of significant lake effect snows
off both lakes.

Broad troughing is expected to be anchored over the Great Lakes
Thursday with broad cyclonic flow sending arctic air southward
across the Lower Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures start out around
-10c Thursday morning cooling to near -14c by the end of the day
Friday. Over-lake instability during this time will be extreme
with Lake Induced Capes peaking around 1000 J/KG and Lake
Equilibrium Levels nearing 20K feet. Such a strong instability
signal would suggest the potential intense snowfall rates in
excess of three inches per hour at times.

Lastest model guidance trending a bit further to the north during
the day Thursday on a west southwest flow which would bring the
lake snows into the Buffalo Southtowns off Lake Erie and up to
Watertown or even farther to the north off Lake Ontario. A
prolonged period of west northwest flow develops behind the
passage of a trough late Thursday into Friday. This will likely be
when the more intense lake snows develop, focusing on the Western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie and from east of Rochester to the
southern Tug Hill off Lake Ontario.

At this stage of the forecast it seems nearly certain that heavy
lake snows will develop and our first extended look at winter so
far this season, however trying to pin down the exact placement of
the most significant threat areas remains at a lower confidence
level, due to subtle differences in wind direction. Will need to
wait for more run-to-run consistency to begin detailing the
highest threat locations.
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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

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On 12/4/2016 at 6:22 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

What careers do you guys have in which you can move for the weather to towns with less than 1,000 people? Do you guys have any family in the location you moved from? I would always love living in a snowbelt, but the modern conveniences of my location being 15 Mins to the city and close to all my family/friends is more important than an extra 50-60 inches of snow if I moved to the belt. The daily commute would get old very quickly. I'm pretty content with what we receive here. If I get hungry at 1 am I can go to about 20 places in a few minutes. I honestly don't think I could live anywhere else. Maybe north of Syracuse, since its a bigger city with lots of snow, but then wouldn't be able to go to Bills/Sabres games which is probably a good thing after watching this implosion unfolding right now. ^_^

I landed a job at community mental health. My father was getting the newspaper from Marquette and Houghton. He was looking to move up here after retiring, but I ended up moving here before he did. Found the job in these papers. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2-3 feet south of Buffalo, 3-4 feet in the tug. Doubt I get much here, but have off on Friday and going chasing! 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES THURSDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES THURSDAY
  NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
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weatherbo

weatherbo

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1 minute ago, Willh said:

Yeah but it all melts.

 

My wife is from the Painesville/Chardon area in Ohio and I lived there for 2 winters...it's just not worth the warmth and melting to me.

 

Cold front just went through btw, changed to heavy snow briefly and is now just flurries. But it's getting cold.

 

Still, being in the midst of a 2-3' storm is pretty awesome. Light snow starting up here.  Waiting for the afternoon update...I'm almost certain the usual areas of the Keweenaw down to the Porkies will get 20-25" before it's over. 

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dta1984

dta1984

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15 minutes ago, Willh said:

Yeah but it all melts.

 

My wife is from the Painesville/Chardon area in Ohio and I lived there for 2 winters...it's just not worth the warmth and melting to me.

 

Cold front just went through btw, changed to heavy snow briefly and is now just flurries. But it's getting cold.

 

That's true . I'm in the ohio snowbelt and while we get 100" or so a year, there's alot of melting vs further north snowbelts .   

Good luck everyone ! 

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ConfusedKitten

ConfusedKitten

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EC just released a special weather statement for snow squalls on Friday, it's a little odd they're doing it this early for an event that doesn't look particularly big but maybe it's because it's the first of the year. Also, it's been exactly six years since an event everyone around here calls "Snowmageddon", we got three days of constant lake effect snow resulting in totals from ~40 inches in the city, to 70+ inches further north. It's the only time I've seen the whole city and surrounding highways shut down for snow, I was in grade school at the time and definitely appreciated the three days off school.

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London snowsquall

London snowsquall

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1 hour ago, ConfusedKitten said:

EC just released a special weather statement for snow squalls on Friday, it's a little odd they're doing it this early for an event that doesn't look particularly big but maybe it's because it's the first of the year. Also, it's been exactly six years since an event everyone around here calls "Snowmageddon", we got three days of constant lake effect snow resulting in totals from ~40 inches in the city, to 70+ inches further north. It's the only time I've seen the whole city and surrounding highways shut down for snow, I was in grade school at the time and definitely appreciated the three days off school.

We got a number of big events in the 70's.   The first one in Nov '70 and another one in Jan '71 each produced about 24"+.   Those were the storms that piqued my interest in weather and snow.  That being said, we are about due for another big squall dumping.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 hours ago, Willh said:

Yeah but it all melts.

 

My wife is from the Painesville/Chardon area in Ohio and I lived there for 2 winters...it's just not worth the warmth and melting to me.

 

Cold front just went through btw, changed to heavy snow briefly and is now just flurries. But it's getting cold.

 

It doesn't melt at the ski resorts I go to 40 minutes south of here,  and unless you're a snowmobiler what use does snow have on the ground? I would take a few big events a year with 3-5" snowfall rates any day over sustained snow cover. I don't get the fascination of sustained snow cover. To each their own I guess. Also, the Tug snow doesn't melt usually, not sure where you get your information from. Redfield/Hooker NY has snow from Late Oct until April in normal winter years. Not to mention the 467" Hooker NY received in 76-77, highest total east of Rockies.

Gaylord Michigan and Hooker New York are the best snow belt city names in the world I think. ^_^

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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10 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

We got a number of big events in the 70's.   The first one in Nov '70 and another one in Jan '71 each produced about 24"+.   Those were the storms that piqued my interest in weather and snow.  That being said, we are about due for another big squall dumping.

Friday looks good for you London. Once that front goes through winds go NW Friday afternoon/Evening.

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ConfusedKitten

ConfusedKitten

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Just now, London snowsquall said:

We got a number of big events in the 70's.   The first one in Nov '70 and another one in Jan '71 each produced about 24"+.   Those were the storms that piqued my interest in weather and snow.  That being said, we are about due for another big squall dumping.

 

Yeah the 70s had some great winters, we still haven't beat the single-day record from 1977.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, ConfusedKitten said:

EC just released a special weather statement for snow squalls on Friday, it's a little odd they're doing it this early for an event that doesn't look particularly big but maybe it's because it's the first of the year. Also, it's been exactly six years since an event everyone around here calls "Snowmageddon", we got three days of constant lake effect snow resulting in totals from ~40 inches in the city, to 70+ inches further north. It's the only time I've seen the whole city and surrounding highways shut down for snow, I was in grade school at the time and definitely appreciated the three days off school.

KBUF even put Londons total in its event history. 45-65" in London area for that event.

https://web.archive.org/web/20130209004626/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1011/c/stormsumc.html

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It doesn't melt at the ski resorts I go to 40 minutes south of here,  and unless you're a snowmobiler what use does snow have on the ground? I would take a few big events a year with 3-5" snowfall rates any day over sustained snow cover. I don't get the fascination of sustained snow cover. To each their own I guess. Also, the Tug snow doesn't melt usually, not sure where you get your information from. Redfield/Hooker NY has snow from Late Oct until April in normal winter years. Not to mention the 467" Hooker NY received in 76-77, highest total east of Rockies.

Gaylord Michigan and Hooker New York are the best snow belt city names in the world I think. ^_^

Riding a sled through 40"+ of powder there is nothing better as far as a winter sport and I also ski and ice hockey as well.  But I can say I am a little jealous of the Erie/Ontario les belts and there 3-5' events they get. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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6 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Riding a sled through 40"+ of powder there is nothing better as far as a winter sport and I also ski and ice hockey as well.  But I can say I am a little jealous of the Erie/Ontario les belts and there 3-5' events they get. 

Yeah I don't have a sled but would like to get one eventually. My in laws have a few in the hills south of here that I use a few times a year. We have a bunch of outdoor hockey rinks that the city maintains downtown that we play ice hockey at. I grew up skating on ponds and could skate before I could walk, played hockey my whole life.

https://lintvwivb.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/ice-rink.jpg?w=1200

http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wbfo/files/styles/medium/public/201502/RiverWorks_hockey.jpg

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London snowsquall

London snowsquall

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41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Friday looks good for you London. Once that front goes through winds go NW Friday afternoon/Evening.

Thanks Buffalo.   We will see - Friday is a long ways away and subtle differences in wind direction will make a big difference locally.  You look to get some as well.   When things align for you,  the totals are epic.  A lot more than here.   You refer to the snowbelt and that you aren't in it....

You are in it all right.  Maybe not as much as farther south, but still definitely located in it.  I consider that I am in it  but around here, north and west get a lot more than London being closer to L. Huron. 

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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Everyone in all the snow belts enjoy!

Will, I think you will see 20-25" in your area, and I'm estimating 15-18" for my location.  They'll be some 30" jackpots I bet, as well. 

12716.png

Also I noticed the difference in the winter products still.  MQT and BUF using Lake effect snow warning/adv's, and APX, GRR, and IWX using Winter storm warning/adv's.  Surprised they're still not on the same page.

products.png

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