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2016-2017 Lake Effect Snow Thread

BuffaloWeather

By BuffaloWeather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
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6 hours ago, Willh said:

Yeah, I'm being facetious, lol. I love it up here - just antsy to see some cold and snow pile up.

Yeah - I love the big storms on the east coast. I lived in Fort Kent, Maine (the extreme tip top - 47.14 lat) for ~10 years. Thing is...I started to realize that this area is just a better fit for me. I don't need the super cold they get up there in Maine...and while I love the snow, I'm more interested in the fact that it's essentially constantly like living in a snow glove up here in the Keweenaw (vs big storm...5 days of sun and cold...big storm.)

 

AND THEN...you have the geography, the lake, the hills and mountains and the awesome boreal-esque forests.

I fell in love with Michigan the second I got north of Saginaw Bay on 75. lol. It's so much more beautiful than it ever gets credit for. People say go to New England for leaf peeping...no, I lived there for 17 years and the UP equaled/surpassed it in every way...and people say this was a bad year for it.

 

You have to see the road to Copper Harbor in the height to leaf colour.

 

And the lake. The lake is essentially and ocean up here...and unlike the ocean in New England - you can get up to it and it's not mobbed with tourists, obnoxious rich people from Boston and NYC and Martha Stewart. The place is just as quaint and oceanesque as Acadia National Park...but you have it almost all to yourself. If you want to buy a house ON the lake - complete with endless views of lake and no land in sight, huge crashing waves and birds flying in and out - it's imminently affordable and sold by locals...not twits from Sothebys and bs like that.

I love Lake Superior.

 

In the end the micro climate up here is incredible fun to take part in. One of the most exciting storms I ever saw in Maine was when I was in Augusta and overnight a norlun trough set up over us...which is essentially ocean effect/enhanced snow...and dropped up 9 inches of fluff out of absolutely no where. I loved that more than I loved the huge 20 inch snow storms we got throughout the winter.

 

To sum up - I love it up here. Intensely. I moved here with my wife because I realized the constant snow and micro climate fit me better - and it's even closer to her family (her family is all from the Lansing area.) I honestly care more for location, surroundings, isolation, climate...more than I care about money. Being here is its own form of wealth. My wife is identical.

 

Thanks for the responses, btw. I'm really trying to learn about the intricacies of the climate up here and it's pretty difficult.

 

Re: living out west. I'd love to...on one hand...but on the other, I kind of like the more widespread cold and sense of winter in the east than the sporadic high elevation cold surround by a sea of relative warmth and a dearth of snow.

There are a few places out west that I would love to live - namely Cooke City, Montana, Maybe just west of Crested Butte, etc. I have no interest in Stampede Pass or just west of Truckee -- too warm there.

My tiptop choices are:

Valdez, Alaska

Labrador City, Canada

Keweenaw Peninsula

Cooke City, Montana

But not Alta, Utah...it's too hipster and too pretentious and doesn't have the humble rural feel I love.

 

I also...obviously...have considered the Tug Hill...but it's just not that pretty there, lake Ontario doesn't have the mystique of Superior and...simply...it's too warm. The snow falls and falls... but collapses and melts away so fast that they almost always have less snow than places like Fort Kent and Calumet.

 

I have one question - in the nws discussions they always refer to les or enhanced snow effecting 'areas in the N west wind flow' regions...and they never say where these places are.

Does anyone know what the correlation of each wind direction and its associated les region of effect? Thanks!

 

 

Good post and thanks for sharing!

The good thing about the Calumet area is you're guaranteed snow from most flows.  The ones that really deliver for you are wsw, w, wnw, nw, nnw, and to a lesser extent n and ne.  By this time next week I have no doubt that some areas in the Keweenaw and down to Ironwood will have seen over 20" (EASY), and Calumet is always a good place to be.  Lots of snow belts within snow belts to figure out.

Today I went to Mt. Arvon.   If you've never been, it's beautiful.  Lots of snow up there too.  I'd say 10 or more inches. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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What careers do you guys have in which you can move for the weather to towns with less than 1,000 people? Do you guys have any family in the location you moved from? I would always love living in a snowbelt, but the modern conveniences of my location being 15 Mins to the city and close to all my family/friends is more important than an extra 50-60 inches of snow if I moved to the belt. The daily commute would get old very quickly. I'm pretty content with what we receive here. If I get hungry at 1 am I can go to about 20 places in a few minutes. I honestly don't think I could live anywhere else. Maybe north of Syracuse, since its a bigger city with lots of snow, but then wouldn't be able to go to Bills/Sabres games which is probably a good thing after watching this implosion unfolding right now. ^_^

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, Willh said:

I see Marquette NWS is calling for lake effect snow through the majority of the coming week...

 

Being that I'm new to LES...does anyone know how much potential there is in terms of accumulations, esp over the keweenaw? I don't have access to many models...and wouldn't know which to look at if I did.

 

Thanks for any help and sorry for the noobishness.

Looks like several shots of arctic air the next few weeks with continuous lake effect with varying wind directions. I expect it to get warmer around Xmas week into the new year.

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What careers do you guys have in which you can move for the weather to towns with less than 1,000 people? I would always love living in a snowbelt, but the modern conveniences of my location being 15 Mins to the city is more important than an extra 50-60 inches of snow if I moved to the belt. The daily commute would get old very quickly. I'm pretty content with what we receive here. If I get hungry at 1 am I can go to about 20 places in a few minutes.

I lifeguarded and swim coached at East Jordan High school in N lower before I moved to the UP.  I don't work here.  I did work some in the summer at a bakery in Negaunee. Fortunately, working is an option. It allows me to live in the remote area I do.  I don't need the average persons human interaction either.  Northern Univ is only 30 miles if I get lonely :P 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I lifeguarded and swim coached at East Jordan High school in N lower before I moved to the UP.  I don't work here.  I did work some in the summer at a bakery in Negaunee. Fortunately, working is an option that allows me to live in the remote area I do.  I don't need the average persons human interaction either.  Northern Univ is only 30 miles if I get lonely :P 

Yeah was just wondering because the spots in the snowbelt 30-45 mins south of here that get the most snow just have cows and 1 pub. I guess to each their own, I love being around people. You don't get to go the gym/beach and see all the hotties. I would go crazy haha!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Multiple LES Events over two weeks would be interesting!

I think those favored by W/NW flow will do the best. I don't expect to get to much at my location. I think Josh will do really well.

From Grand Rapids: 

Forecast issues in the extended are mostly focused on coverage of
lake effect snow Wednesday night through Saturday as cold settles
in. Expect several inches of snow across the western zones in
generally west to northwest flow regime during that time frame.

Light snow should begin Wednesday evening as push of cold air
arrives, but the heavier snows should hold off until arctic front
moves through later Thursday into Friday. Inversion heights are
expected to be above the DGZ during this time and then begin to
lower later Friday as upper trough axis shifts east.

By Saturday, the lake effect snow showers will be decreasing but we
will have to watch a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Plains. This will have the potential for a sfc cyclone and some
synoptic snows by Saturday night into Sunday in warm air advection
pattern.
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josh_4184

josh_4184

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What careers do you guys have in which you can move for the weather to towns with less than 1,000 people? Do you guys have any family in the location you moved from? I would always love living in a snowbelt, but the modern conveniences of my location being 15 Mins to the city and close to all my family/friends is more important than an extra 50-60 inches of snow if I moved to the belt. The daily commute would get old very quickly. I'm pretty content with what we receive here. If I get hungry at 1 am I can go to about 20 places in a few minutes. I honestly don't think I could live anywhere else. Maybe north of Syracuse, since its a bigger city with lots of snow, but then wouldn't be able to go to Bills/Sabres games. ^_^

Both my wife and I are in the healthcare business, I have degrees in Information Technology and have been innovated in Healthcare IT for almost 15 years now.  I am very fortunate to have the position I do in a "rural area" and make the money I do. My wife is a Family Nurse Practitioner and as plenty of options/opportunities, we moved up from Southern Michigan about 5 years ago, I was surprised when she agreed to moving to Northern Michigan.  Gaylord is a pretty small town but has most conveniences, I do miss the selection of options that downstate had but I can always drive to Traverse City if we want.  Our move up here was actually driven more by us looking for a smaller town to live raise a family and wanted a small town that was more laid back then living downstate. Plus cost of living is significantly lower including property which was a huge plus. 

I will say that my wife has had many offers to move out of state for her career but nothing that we were willing to relocate for yet.  Although since being up here we both love it and would take a amazing offer to us to even consider. I am still holding out hope for out west but doubtful.  We are expecting us first child in February so it will get a lot more interesting around the house cant wait. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Both my wife and I are in the healthcare business, I have degrees in Information Technology and have been innovated in Healthcare IT for almost 15 years now.  I am very fortunate to have the position I do in a "rural area" and make the money I do. My wife is a Family Nurse Practitioner and as plenty of options/opportunities, we moved up from Southern Michigan about 5 years ago, I was surprised when she agreed to moving to Northern Michigan.  Gaylord is a pretty small town but has most conveniences, I do miss the selection of options that downstate had but I can always drive to Traverse City if we want.  Our move up here was actually driven more by us looking for a smaller town to live raise a family and wanted a small town that was more laid back then living downstate. Plus cost of living is significantly lower including property which was a huge plus. 

I will say that my wife has had many offers to move out of state for her career but nothing that we were willing to relocate for yet.  Although since being up here we both love it and would take a amazing offer to us to even consider. I am still holding out hope for out west but doubtful.  We are expecting us first child in February so it will get a lot more interesting around the house cant wait. 

Did you guys leave any family when you moved? I don't think I would be able to do that. I figured by your incredible land/house you guys made really good money. We just offered on a house today, real estate market is insane out here. Houses are going for 10-15% over asking. I figured hospitals/Schools are the 2 fields in which you could move anywhere and get good employment. Gaylord has a population of 3600 so jobs would be hard to come by. Congratulations on your first child, that is awesome! Do you work from home?

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you guys leave any family when you moved? I don't think I would be able to do that. I figured by your incredible land/house you guys made really good money. We just offered on a house today, real estate market is insane out here. Houses are going for 10-15% over asking. I figured hospitals/Schools are the 2 fields in which you could move anywhere and get good employment. Gaylord has a population of 3600 so jobs would be hard to come by. Congratulations on your first child, that is awesome! Do you work from home?

Yes, left family about 3-4 hours way no biggie, not to bad of a drive plus gives us our space.  Gaylord does have a small population in the city proper, but Otsrgo county ha sa population close to 25000, so the are is bigger than you may think.  Thanks.  Sometimes, I work from home depends on the day etc. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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17 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yes, left family about 3-4 hours way no biggie, not to bad of a drive plus gives us our space.  Gaylord does have a small population in the city proper, but Otsrgo county ha sa population close to 25000, so the are is bigger than you may think.  Thanks.  Sometimes, I work from home depends on the day etc. 

Since you work in IT, you have to see the new gaming computer I just built. Putting together the final pieces and will post a picture after.

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SconnieTransplant

SconnieTransplant

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What careers do you guys have in which you can move for the weather to towns with less than 1,000 people? Do you guys have any family in the location you moved from? I would always love living in a snowbelt, but the modern conveniences of my location being 15 Mins to the city and close to all my family/friends is more important than an extra 50-60 inches of snow if I moved to the belt. The daily commute would get old very quickly. I'm pretty content with what we receive here. If I get hungry at 1 am I can go to about 20 places in a few minutes. I honestly don't think I could live anywhere else. Maybe north of Syracuse, since its a bigger city with lots of snow, but then wouldn't be able to go to Bills/Sabres games which is probably a good thing after watching this implosion unfolding right now. ^_^

My husband and I moved to Calumet in the Keweenaw peninsula last September. He's an editor and can telecommute from anywhere and I retired early after working as a professional astronomy librarian for 20 years in the mid-Atlantic for a big government agency. We vacationed here for years, fell in love with the area and decided to move. We're originally from small towns in the Midwest and don't have kids so it was an easy decision. Bought a really lovely well maintained home in downtown Calumet.

Looking forward to the snow this week!

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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6 minutes ago, SconnieTransplant said:

My husband and I moved to Calumet in the Keweenaw peninsula last September. He's an editor and can telecommute from anywhere and I retired early after working as a professional astronomy librarian for 20 years in the mid-Atlantic for a big government agency. We vacationed here for years, fell in love with the area and decided to move. We're originally from small towns in the Midwest and don't have kids so it was an easy decision. Bought a really lovely well maintained home in downtown Calumet.

Looking forward to the snow this week!

Nice to have a 4th known poster from the UP.  Welcome, and I look forward to more posts!
 

 

Congratulations, Josh! :)

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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7 minutes ago, SconnieTransplant said:

My husband and I moved to Calumet in the Keweenaw peninsula last September. He's an editor and can telecommute from anywhere and I retired early after working as a professional astronomy librarian for 20 years in the mid-Atlantic for a big government agency. We vacationed here for years, fell in love with the area and decided to move. We're originally from small towns in the Midwest and don't have kids so it was an easy decision. Bought a really lovely well maintained home in downtown Calumet.

Looking forward to the snow this week!

Welcome! The pictures that Bo post look gorgeous up there, so can see why you moved for retirement. Nature is a beautiful thing!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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5 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Nice to have a 4th known poster from the UP.  Welcome, and look forward to more posts!
 

 

Congratulations, Josh! :)

You guys now have more posters in the UP than we do in all of Buffalo and Western New York. Everyone hates the snow that lives here. 1 million people in Western New York and 3 posters.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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3 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Next week looks ike another colder shot of arctic air may come down, havent looked at the Euro yet gfs_T850_us_43.png

Its similar as the cold air reloads over Canada. Those temps would freeze lake Erie quite quickly. Piece of the PV separates and dumps into Great Lakes. Should have some great lake effect the next few weeks though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120412/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

If you look at EPS you can see the PV separate and unload its cold air. Hours 168 to 240.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016120412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You guys now have more posters in the UP than we do in all of Buffalo and Western New York. Everyone hates the snow that lives here. 1 million people in Western New York and 3 posters.

That's pretty crazy!  Most people that live here either love or hate the snow.  There's no middle ground I've noticed, but people do take pride in living in one of the snowiest places east of the Rockies... Northern climate people are tuff, kind, and down to earth I find.  I also notice when I go to town that people talk about the snow or the lack of it  a lot.  I think it's easy small talk conversation, perhaps.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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7 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

That's pretty crazy!  Most people that live here either love or hate the snow.  There's no middle ground I've noticed, but people do take pride in living in one of the snowiest places east of the Rockies... Northern climate people are tuff, kind, and down to earth I find.  I also notice when I go to town that people talk about the snow or the lack of it  a lot.  I think it's an easy small talk conversation, perhaps.

Yeah its a topic of conversation here. I am a branch manager at a local bank and it's all everyone talks about. But 99% of the time its complaining about the snow/cold and hoping for warmth/sun all the time. I can understand that most of the year but in winter if you don't embrace it you're going to be miserable for 3-4 months. The lack of posters is why I migrated over here, technically we're all great lake posters.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its similar as the cold air reloads over Canada. Those temps would freeze lake Erie quite quickly. Piece of the PV separates and dumps into Great Lakes. Should have some great lake effect the next few weeks though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120412/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

If you look at EPS you can see the PV separate and unload its cold air. Hours 168 to 240.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016120412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

Def looks like a strong pattern for LES through the remainder of the year, which would be great for sledding though the holidays if it does verify.  Last year we had a green X-Mas in Gaylord, only happened about 4 times in the last 70 years. 

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