2016-2017 Lake Effect Snow Thread

[BuffaloWeather]

We've had one the last few years, so figured I'd get this one started. The last event missed Buffalo and suburbs but hit everyone else. I picked up a whopping .3".  The big cities of Rochester (15"), Syracuse (2'+), Binghmanton (28") all got hit very hard. Northwest flow with added synoptic moisture from a low pressure that just sat there north of Vermont for 36-48 hours straight. Max total was 54.5" in Redfield (Best spot in Tug for LES)

I believe Superior had many locations over a foot and upper lower as well. Maybe Josh or Bo can give some feedback. Great kick off to LES season with this possibly being a 5 star event, may the wind direction forever be in your favor.  

[Indystorm]

Had a friend from my central IN town call me today who was visiting family near Rochester N.Y. and was certainly surprised by the LES.

[Hoosier]

West of the traditional IN/MI snowbelt here but this area can get it good when the flow is N/NNE.  Hoping for a good event this winter.

[josh_4184]

Here is our summary, not a huge event for most areas. I ended with around 9" very localized this time around. Kalkaska areas were the big winners in my area. 

 

[Hoosier]

What explains the totals being displaced so far inland in northern lower?  Elevation?

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

What explains the totals being displaced so far inland in northern lower?  Elevation?

Exactly 

[josh_4184]

Elevation has a huge impact on LES totals especially in our areas where we don't have the long fetch as does Western NY, in this case with a strong NW/NNW wind Kalkaska was the big winner If this was a NW or WNW wind flow my area would have probably been the jackpot zone. 

[weatherbo]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We've had one the last few years, so figured I'd get this one started. The last event missed Buffalo and suburbs but hit everyone else. I picked up a whopping .3".  The big cities of Rochester (15"), Syracuse (2'+), Binghmanton (28") all got hit very hard. Northwest flow with added synoptic moisture from a low pressure that just sat there north of Vermont for 36-48 hours straight. Max total was 54.5" in Redfield (Best spot in Tug for LES)

I believe Superior had many locations over a foot and upper lower as well. Maybe Josh or Bo can give some feedback. Great kick off to LES season with this possibly being a 5 star event, may the wind direction forever be in your favor.  

Very nice start to the season, wow!

Nothing even close to an event like that here, but with the high winds and snow combined, it was a good storm. 

Here's to an active snow thread and months on end of snow removal!

[slimjim101]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What explains the totals being displaced so far inland in northern lower?  Elevation?

Early in the season with the water temperatures being so warm areas away from the lake and even more so areas higher in elevation will have a better chance of receiving more lake snows than areas closer to the lake. In fact its not that unusual for the first few snow events to be more rain at the lake shore than snow. That is the case in both lower Michigan and the UP. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Places east/southeast of the lakes are going to get buried in the pattern that is coming. feet and feet of snow. 

[josh_4184]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Places east/southeast of the lakes are going to get buried in the pattern that is coming. feet and feet of snow. 

 It has potential 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

IWX's afternoon AFD very optimistic about significant LES.

[OHweather]

The lack of NAO blocking will probably keep this from being one of those 5 day long epic events...but, there's a flow straight from the Arctic, so this cold airmass will be deep and moving across warm lakes. Should be an intense 1-2 day event downwind of every lake. Wind direction may be tough to figure out for a few more days, because that depends on how quickly a possible low pressure ahead of the cold blows up or doesn't blow up...but someone will get a foot or two of snow...possibly more if we lock in a WSW flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario.

[josh_4184]

27 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The lack of NAO blocking will probably keep this from being one of those 5 day long epic events...but, there's a flow straight from the Arctic, so this cold airmass will be deep and moving across warm lakes. Should be an intense 1-2 day event downwind of every lake. Wind direction may be tough to figure out for a few more days, because that depends on how quickly a possible low pressure ahead of the cold blows up or doesn't blow up...but someone will get a foot or two of snow...possibly more if we lock in a WSW flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario.

I agree, we haven't had a blocking event for quite some time, last few winters the systems move through pretty quickly day or two max then are gone. Even worst are the clippers. I would like to see a 5+ day LES event sometime in my life hard to happen for my area.  LES belts should do pretty well the next 10 -15 days. 

 

[IWXwx]

4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

IWX's afternoon AFD very optimistic about significant LES.

Sam has been forecasting LES for many years and knows his stuff. He is a weenie though and gets excited at the prospects.

[BuffaloWeather]

The first event brought over 50" east of Ontario, I think this event from Dec. 8th to 16th has a chance to surpass that. KBUF has hazardous weather outlook a full week ahead of the event(Rare), an indication that it will be quite significant. Right now would favor those locations hit by W/NW wind, but shortwaves can allow bands to meander around which are unpredictable outside of 1-2 days. Can't wait to chase wherever the bands end up.

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK... ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE THE GREATEST
IMPACT. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE ANY REMAINING PREPARATIONS TO MAKE FOR THE
WINTER SEASON... THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A GOOD
TIME TO COMPLETE THOSE PREPARATIONS.

A significant pattern change will take place across North America
during the second half of next week, which will deliver much colder
air into the Great Lakes and New England and possibly set the stage
for a significant lake effect snow event.

A parade of strong synoptic systems moving east through the Pacific
wave train will amplify the pattern across the North Pacific through
the weekend. This will in turn force a ridge to develop over western
North America for the second half of next week, allowing a deep
trough to carve out over the Great Lakes. The developing trough will
capture a large piece of cold Canadian air and circulate it through
the Great Lakes region by late next week.

The significant model differences on the synoptic scale evolution,
and the fact that this event is still a week away, still bring
plenty of uncertainty with respect to placement and intensity of
lake effect snow. That said, the upper air pattern supports the
potential for a significant event. CIPS extended analogs based on
the GEFS ensembles are returning a number of dates which had
significant lake effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and
the pattern matches closely to some of our own analogs for
significant events developed through local research at NWS BUF. With
that in mind we have outlined the potential in the HWO. Stay tuned...

[weatherbo]

9 hours ago, Willh said:

It had better snow here.

 

I mean it's been snowing off and on for days now. I mean real snow.

The great lake belts are very different. You and I aren't going to get a 50" firehose streamer up here like Erie, Ontario, and to a much lesser extent southern lake Michigan (Although the bands the have a Lake Nipigon, Ontario connection and hug the Marquette county shore and deposit in the Eastern UP can be ferocious and dump a few feet if parked in the same spot long enough). You and I clean up with system enhanced snow, and a general closeness to the lake with sharp upslope flows. A general 3-5" clipper can come through, and it's a 12-18" event. 2' storms totals are pretty common in our backyards specifically. Also, there are micro-snow belts between here and there that produce stunning snow amounts no one but sled riders ever see.  By the end of this Winter a 6-10" snow will not phase you, and you'll realize it's the persistence of the snow that makes the UP snow belts so great... It literally starts snowing and kind of doesn't stop... you haven't seen anything yet.  I wouldn't rule out either of us seeing a 70" month.

Seems to me the big events off of Erie and Ontario and been on the increase...?

[TugHillMatt]

43 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

The great lake belts are very different. You and I aren't going to get a 50" firehose snow streamer up here like Erie, Ontario, and to a much lesser extent southern lake Michigan (Although the bands the have a Lake Nipigon, Ontario connection and hug the Marquette county shore and deposit in the Eastern UP can be ferocious and dump a few feet if parked in the same spot long enough). You and I clean up with system enhanced snow, and a general closeness to the lake with sharp upslope flows. A general 3-5" clipper can come through, and it's a 12-18" event. 2' storms totals are pretty common in our backyards specifically. Also, there are micro-snow belts between here and there that produce stunning snow amounts no one but sled riders ever see.  By the end of this Winter a 6-10" snow will not phase you, and you'll realize it's the persistence of the snow that makes the UP snow belts so great... It literally starts snowing and kind of doesn't stop... you haven't seen anything yet.  I wouldn't rule out either of us seeing a 70" month.

Seems to me the big events off of Erie and Ontario and been on the increase...?

This. Will, I grew up on the east coast as well (I remember talking to you and seeing your awesome pictures from Fort Kent. In fact, my wife and I went there during the winter a couple years ago as a potential place to live. But, the wife couldn't take the desolate environs. :() 

 

Anyways...Been in Michigan for 8 years now, and still struggle with the fact that this is NOT the state for the types of storms you and I are used to. I often want to see the powerful winter storms, but often that is not what happens. The thing to really appreciate is that snow flies pretty often, as you have noted, during the winter thanks to the lakes. You usually don't have to wait for weeks in relentless boredom to see snow. Down here in the western Michigan snowbelt we have a few more boring periods than you will have, but it snows frequently as well...just in smaller couple inch events, with 6 to 12 inch lake snow events interspersed.

 

As Bo mentioned, the clippers are the thing to really look out for. Michigan is the state of Lake Enhancement. My area really cashes in with them, as they often come with a SW flow off the lake. When the meteorologists start talking about a pattern of clippers coming, get the plow and blower ready!

[weatherbo]

20 minutes ago, blackrock said:

This. Will, I grew up on the east coast as well (I remember talking to you and seeing your awesome pictures from Fort Kent. In fact, my wife and I went there during the winter a couple years ago as a potential place to live. But, the wife couldn't take the desolate environs. :() 

 

Anyways...Been in Michigan for 8 years now, and still struggle with the fact that this is NOT the state for the types of storms you and I are used to. I often want to see the powerful winter storms, but often that is not what happens. The thing to really appreciate is that snow flies pretty often, as you have noted, during the winter thanks to the lakes. You usually don't have to wait for weeks in relentless boredom to see snow. Down here in the western Michigan snowbelt we have a few more boring periods than you will have, but it snows frequently as well...just in smaller couple inch events, with 6 to 12 inch lake snow events interspersed.

 

As Bo mentioned, the clippers are the thing to really look out for. Michigan is the state of Lake Enhancement. My area really cashes in with them, as they often come with a SW flow off the lake. When the meteorologists start talking about a pattern of clippers coming, get the plow and blower ready!

When I lived in N lower, it was the sw clipper events that were the best.  I think the problem there was I lived too close to the lake (within 5 miles), and the average snowfall was around 110... not enough for me.  You get inland around Gaylord (Josh) and it's 150" with the bigger totals.  I do remember one night in 2013 where a band connected to Superior came through and it snowed 12.5" in 4 hours before it meandered on.  That was probably the best snow while I lived there, but I remember it snowing for 2 weeks without stopping too.

Here, where the average snowfall is over 200", 10-12" of snow overnight is pretty routine in the right pattern.

[TugHillMatt]

I average about 110 inches at my house as well, and it is still not enough for me either! Haha. The wife gave an absolute NO to moving to the UP, and I allllllmost had her with moving to Gaylord after going there a few times. Boo. She hates the cold, so living in lower Michigan is a compromise, as she would live in Georgia or Florida in a heartbeat. Bleh!

Pretty much every winter I can expect to see 1 to 3 "12 inch plus in 6 hours" events. They are often not forecasted at all, and come with an area of lake convergence. The best!

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah, it's tough to beat the Tug. They are far enough East to get hit by Nor'Easters. They also get hit with NW/W/SW flows with upslope and can have upstream connections from Superior/Huron/Ontario that can dump over 10" an hour. Redfield/Lacona average 300"+ per year and get several 3' events+ in any given year. 2007 Redfield received 142" of snow in 10 days. The most off of Buffalo in a short period of time is 92" in 2014 in 3 days and in 2001 with 82" in 5 days. Erie can only compete with Ontario until it starts freezing. 

[DAFF]

With the given warm potential in the lakes at the surface. I wonder how the broder deeper temperature profiles will effect the freezing over of the lakes. With the lack of wind this fall is the 25' temperature of the lake warmer too ? It will be interesting to watch the action unfold over the coming months.

[josh_4184]

11 hours ago, weatherbo said:

When I lived in N lower, it was the sw clipper events that were the best.  I think the problem there was I lived too close to the lake (within 5 miles), and the average snowfall was around 110... not enough for me.  You get inland around Gaylord (Josh) and it's 150" with the bigger totals.  I do remember one night in 2013 where a band connected to Superior came through and it snowed 12.5" in 4 hours before it meandered on.  That was probably the best snow while I lived there, but I remember it snowing for 2 weeks without stopping too.

Here, where the average snowfall is over 200", 10-12" of snow overnight is pretty routine in the right pattern.

My area is probably as good as it gets for Lower Michigan, 150' a year is nice but its never enough. If it was up to me I would be out west in the Rockies, cant beat the Mountain Snow. 

[weatherbo]

11 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

My area is probably as good as it gets for Lower Michigan, 150' a year is nice but its never enough. If it was up to me I would be out west in the Rockies, cant beat the Mountain Snow. 

If I ever leave the UP, I'd like to go to nw Wyoming above 7500'.  That would be ideal for me but I love Superior too much, and not just for the snow.

[josh_4184]

34 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

If I ever leave the UP, I'd like to go to nw Wyoming above 7500'.  That would be ideal for me but I love Superior too much, and not just for the snow.

I love my area as well, its a great compromise between great snowfall and all the great geography Michigan has to offer. I get usually 4 seasons a year and like them all with winter being my favorite. Without elevation LES is the next best thing by far with Western NY Tug Hill, Ontario East of LES and then UP being the best for pure total snowfall. 

[TugHillMatt]

58 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I love my area as well, its a great compromise between great snowfall and all the great geography Michigan has to offer. I get usually 4 seasons a year and like them all with winter being my favorite. Without elevation LES is the next best thing by far with Western NY Tug Hill, Ontario East of LES and then UP being the best for pure total snowfall. 

A cabin on Stampede Pass in Washington would be pretty nice too. Oh, and Valdez, Alaska.  Now THERE is some real non-lake effect snow!

[Jonger]

You two yoopers will have feet on the ground by December 20th, probably 3 or so.

[beavis1729]

Great stuff Will. 

My wife and I have been scouting out Minocqua (north woods of WI) for awhile...but may need to consider the UP too.  My brother and I went snowmobiling in the Porcupine Mountains a few years ago - an amazing place.

[IWXwx]

Part of the long term discussion from Sam at IWX. Translation: Lake MI snow belts could get annihilated.

Arctic intrusion still on tap mid to late week. Few changes to temps
and lake effect snow grids for later periods with broad area of
likely to categorical pops downwind of the lake. If moisture and
trajectories remain favorable...significant accumulations still
possible with extreme instability as sfc-700mb delta Ts approach 30
and upper trough over lakes provides favorable synoptic background
conditions. 

 

[josh_4184]

20 minutes ago, Willh said:

I see Marquette NWS is calling for lake effect snow through the majority of the coming week...

 

Being that I'm new to LES...does anyone know how much potential there is in terms of accumulations, esp over the keweenaw? I don't have access to many models...and wouldn't know which to look at if I did.

 

Thanks for any help and sorry for the noobishness.

Tough to say this far out, LES is very difficult to forecast more than a couple days out because of the 850mb winds which drives the direction of the snow bands. Plus having enough moisture and correct inversion heights. But early indications are for a pretty decent to good setup for most areas in the preferred NW flow locations.  I bet several areas will see 12"+ totals.