PaEasternWX Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Predict Date of 1st Snowstorm(which meets winter storm warning criteria) in: Deadline is when Meteorological Winter Begins. BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: For Reference here is what winter storm warning criteria is: A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 BWI: 1/7 DCA: 1/7 IAD: 1/7 RIC: 1/7 (Same storm, a Nor'Easter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 sby: April 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 all in 1 storm. 12/27/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 December 24th - 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 I don't think we'll have a verified WSW event at any airport. We'll nickel-and-dime to slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 December 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 December 5... ...2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 You might want to lower the criteria to WWA event, maybe with a snowfall total of say 2". Anyway, I'll go with Dec 17 for all locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You might want to lower the criteria to WWA event, maybe with a snowfall total of say 2". Anyway, I'll go with Dec 17 for all locations. A WWA event is not a legit snow storm. But I guess the definition of a legit snow storm is opinion based and could change from person to person. Plus you only need an inch of snow for the criteria to be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 To make it more clear to everyone. Here is the criteria of a WSW event. Quote A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 I don't think its all that rare to go an entire winter without a verified WSW- just off the top of my head I can think of six in the last 20 years: 97-98, 00-01, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12, 12-13. Emphasis on "verified"- now, if we're betting on the first day LWX puts up a Winter Storm Warning... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 December 24th, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Jan. 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 BWI: Jan 20 DCA: Feb 7 IAD: Jan 20 RIC: Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 BWI: Jan 15 DCA: Jan 15 IAD: Jan 15 RIC: Feb 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I'm moving up there on the 12th, so... BWI: 12/18 DCA: 12/18 IAD: 12/18 RIC: 12/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Evening of Dec 9, to mid-day Dec 10. I hope I don't win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Some chance around Dec 11 but will enter contest with Dec 27 for all but RIC, they will wait for Jan 10 which could be a big storm for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 15 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Some chance around Dec 11 but will enter contest with Dec 27 for all but RIC, they will wait for Jan 10 which could be a big storm for the whole region. Roger do you feel the progression of systems in the long range matches your early season description of events in terms of stormy perios and cold? Seems that in the end it may be that December builds the cold and the snow cover, while early to mid January delivers the first major snows to the Mid Atlantic and coastal plain. Maybe that is the peak of the winter , to me that seems possible. The progression in the recent Jan 2017 CVS2 looks like your forecast . Pressing cold , blocking, and Southern jet under-cutting . Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/22/2016 at 2:22 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: I don't think we'll have a verified WSW event at any airport. We'll nickel-and-dime to slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 BWI: December 27 DCA: January 12 IAD: December 27 RIC: January 20 I question whether Richmond will even see an event that meets warning criteria, but I'm going to go with a southern slider that provides enough fluffy stuff that they barely get there. That same system might even deliver more snow to the DC area despite there being less QPF. Ratios, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 12/22/16 For DCA, BWI, and IAD. 1/09/17 for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 12/20 for the big 3 12/31 for RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 BWI: 12/23 DCA: 1/1 IAD: 12/23 RIC: 1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Just a reminder you have until the end up tomorrow to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 BWI: 1/05 DCA: 1/05 IAD: 1/05 RIC: 2/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 BWI: 12/19 DCA: 12/19 IAD:12/19 RIC:12/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Entries past 11:59 PM today will not be accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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