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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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1 hour ago, masomenos said:

It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though.

Agreed - it's still basically extremely localized to the 5 boroughs, Nassau Co NY, and Hudson Co NJ.

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3 hours ago, masomenos said:

It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though.

The difficulty for interior sections in December is getting below 0. The last below 0 reading in POU for December was back in 2008. I believe the last below zero

in Sussex, NJ during December was in 2005.  

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3 hours ago, masomenos said:

It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though.

EWR has already hit below freezing. But otherwise, agreed.

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The difficulty for interior sections in December is getting below 0. The last below 0 reading in POU for December was back in 2008. I believe the last below zero

in Sussex, NJ during December was in 2005.  

Yes I believe that was 2005. There was a shot of unmodified arctic. High point state park in Sussex county went below zero as I remember 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Interior winter

:(

I haven't had much time to look at models the last couple days, but wasn't it just yesterday that Euro and GFS showed snowstorms for our area in the long range? Shouldn't get discouraged just because one set of OP runs took away the snowstorms. We'll be in a cold pattern for a couple weeks, so odds are decent that something will work out for the coast during the period.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Problem for the coast on the whole EPS run is lack of help on the Atlantic side. The EPS maintains just enough of a SE Ridge

for storm systems to cut or hug. All the cold air comes in behind the storm systems.

Strongly agree, Chris. I just posted the following in the New England thread, regarding the often spurious NAO domain height rises in the D10+

"What will be the mechanism to induce -NAO formation, however? I have seen this occur numerous times already this fall with respect to spurious geopotential height rises progged near Greenland -- more of an issue with the GEFS. 

Notice also in the medium term, heights have gradually corrected higher along the East Coast. The pattern overall is a terrible one for the coast through mid month at least, and especially NYC southward. Tropical forcing and stratospheric evolution are not conducive for protracted blocking in the NAO/AO domains. Hopefully we see subsequent wave 1/2 attacks, but at this time, zonal winds from 150hpa up through 10hpa are progged near or above normal by D7."

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NWS Albany for Gardineer NY


LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLICK
TRAVELING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COUPLE MORE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK.
MORE SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH CAN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HAZARDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Interior winter

:(

 

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Let them have it. They deserve it

This was mentioned by a few Met's and others both on and off the forums. While it will be active, the coast will probably be dealing with more changeover/sloppy type events but should still see its fair share of snow and I am sure we will have at least a couple of all snow events. The interior areas look to do better this winter but its still early so we will see how things shake out.

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Problem for the coast on the whole EPS run is lack of help on the Atlantic side. The EPS maintains just enough of a SE Ridge

for storm systems to cut or hug. All the cold air comes in behind the storm systems.

What I don't understand is why the EPO ridge is disappearing. Usually when it a feature to be forecasted to be very strong it usually has some good staying power. Plus, the NAO has been all over the place for a long while now. 

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7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

3rd straight ugly GFS run, fantasy storm from 00z is gone

It is very cold in the long range and has 2 snowstorm threats in the long range as well. One around the 14th-15th and another around the 17th-18th. Plenty cold at the coast for both threats but they miss just to the south. Of course fantasy range and will change many times.

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Strongly agree, Chris. I just posted the following in the New England thread, regarding the often spurious NAO domain height rises in the D10+

"What will be the mechanism to induce -NAO formation, however? I have seen this occur numerous times already this fall with respect to spurious geopotential height rises progged near Greenland -- more of an issue with the GEFS. 

Notice also in the medium term, heights have gradually corrected higher along the East Coast. The pattern overall is a terrible one for the coast through mid month at least, and especially NYC southward. Tropical forcing and stratospheric evolution are not conducive for protracted blocking in the NAO/AO domains. Hopefully we see subsequent wave 1/2 attacks, but at this time, zonal winds from 150hpa up through 10hpa are progged near or above normal by D7."

I also still see some troughing in the west which will allow some of these storms to cut. Best case for the coast is front end dump 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It remains to be seen how long that ridge can persist near Alaska. But the long range guidance wants to replace it with a vortex by December 20th.

We saw something similar occur in December 2007. 

 

A.gif

 

B.gif

 

 

 

 

2007-2008 was one of the examples you mentioned regarding an interior winter

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