dmillz25 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Well that Euro run was pretty nice. Wintery pattern setting up especially for NE upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Well that Euro run was pretty nice. Wintery pattern setting up especially for NE upstate NYJust upstate NY and NE? Don't have access attm. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just upstate NY and NE? Don't have access attm. Thanks. PA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, masomenos said: It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though. Agreed - it's still basically extremely localized to the 5 boroughs, Nassau Co NY, and Hudson Co NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 hours ago, masomenos said: It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though. The difficulty for interior sections in December is getting below 0. The last below 0 reading in POU for December was back in 2008. I believe the last below zero in Sussex, NJ during December was in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: Agreed - it's still basically extremely localized to the 5 boroughs, Nassau Co NY, and Hudson Co NJ. I would exclude Nassau County, once you get past Glen Cove Road on Northern Blvd, temps plummet heading East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 hours ago, masomenos said: It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though. EWR has already hit below freezing. But otherwise, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 wet run on the EPS, majority of ensembles are snow events followed by more snow also EPS stays below normal through Dec 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: The difficulty for interior sections in December is getting below 0. The last below 0 reading in POU for December was back in 2008. I believe the last below zero in Sussex, NJ during December was in 2005. Yes I believe that was 2005. There was a shot of unmodified arctic. High point state park in Sussex county went below zero as I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Interior winter I haven't had much time to look at models the last couple days, but wasn't it just yesterday that Euro and GFS showed snowstorms for our area in the long range? Shouldn't get discouraged just because one set of OP runs took away the snowstorms. We'll be in a cold pattern for a couple weeks, so odds are decent that something will work out for the coast during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, snowman19 said: Yes I believe that was 2005. There was a shot of unmodified arctic. High point state park in Sussex county went below zero as I remember Quite the memory! Can't even remember events from a couple years back, haha. that was one cold Decemeber if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 euro has 6-12 for central and northern PA this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: euro has 6-12 for central and northern PA this week Yea looks like the elevated areas in central PA get slammed mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Problem for the coast on the whole EPS run is lack of help on the Atlantic side. The EPS maintains just enough of a SE Ridge for storm systems to cut or hug. All the cold air comes in behind the storm systems. Strongly agree, Chris. I just posted the following in the New England thread, regarding the often spurious NAO domain height rises in the D10+ "What will be the mechanism to induce -NAO formation, however? I have seen this occur numerous times already this fall with respect to spurious geopotential height rises progged near Greenland -- more of an issue with the GEFS. Notice also in the medium term, heights have gradually corrected higher along the East Coast. The pattern overall is a terrible one for the coast through mid month at least, and especially NYC southward. Tropical forcing and stratospheric evolution are not conducive for protracted blocking in the NAO/AO domains. Hopefully we see subsequent wave 1/2 attacks, but at this time, zonal winds from 150hpa up through 10hpa are progged near or above normal by D7." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 NWS Albany for Gardineer NY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLICK TRAVELING CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COUPLE MORE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK. MORE SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH CAN RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HAZARDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Currently 39f. Hoping to radiate down a bit before the clouds move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Interior winter 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Let them have it. They deserve it This was mentioned by a few Met's and others both on and off the forums. While it will be active, the coast will probably be dealing with more changeover/sloppy type events but should still see its fair share of snow and I am sure we will have at least a couple of all snow events. The interior areas look to do better this winter but its still early so we will see how things shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Problem for the coast on the whole EPS run is lack of help on the Atlantic side. The EPS maintains just enough of a SE Ridge for storm systems to cut or hug. All the cold air comes in behind the storm systems. What I don't understand is why the EPO ridge is disappearing. Usually when it a feature to be forecasted to be very strong it usually has some good staying power. Plus, the NAO has been all over the place for a long while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3rd straight ugly GFS run, fantasy storm from 00z is gone It is very cold in the long range and has 2 snowstorm threats in the long range as well. One around the 14th-15th and another around the 17th-18th. Plenty cold at the coast for both threats but they miss just to the south. Of course fantasy range and will change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: Strongly agree, Chris. I just posted the following in the New England thread, regarding the often spurious NAO domain height rises in the D10+ "What will be the mechanism to induce -NAO formation, however? I have seen this occur numerous times already this fall with respect to spurious geopotential height rises progged near Greenland -- more of an issue with the GEFS. Notice also in the medium term, heights have gradually corrected higher along the East Coast. The pattern overall is a terrible one for the coast through mid month at least, and especially NYC southward. Tropical forcing and stratospheric evolution are not conducive for protracted blocking in the NAO/AO domains. Hopefully we see subsequent wave 1/2 attacks, but at this time, zonal winds from 150hpa up through 10hpa are progged near or above normal by D7." I also still see some troughing in the west which will allow some of these storms to cut. Best case for the coast is front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It remains to be seen how long that ridge can persist near Alaska. But the long range guidance wants to replace it with a vortex by December 20th. We saw something similar occur in December 2007. 2007-2008 was one of the examples you mentioned regarding an interior winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: 2007-2008 was one of the examples you mentioned regarding an interior winter That was a terrible winter. No one has that as an analog for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That was a terrible winter. No one has that as an analog for this winter. It was good for the interior. Bluewave had mentioned that as one of the years where the interior outdid the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It was good for the interior. Bluewave had mentioned that as one of the years where the interior outdid the coast. Looks like that might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 39.7F with virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 31/26 here awaiting a 1-2" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 40F light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 37F moderate rain. Not looking good the snow is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 31° Lgt Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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