December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[mriceyman]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CFS your favorite model?

The only model

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

This absolutely screams Miller B... and I'm not convinced this isn't big for NYC if it falls into place. I'll continue to say this Timeframe Dec (10-15) is gonna produce a significant storm

[Allsnow]

Nice set up for next Sunday on the gfs. Looks like we will have our chances this week 

[dmillz25]

Nice GFS run that was. Multiple snow chances starting tomorrow 

[pazzo83]

Looks like KNYC will get its first 32F or below reading on Friday at the latest.  Becoming pretty common we get our first freezes in Dec these days.  Last winter it took until January to get below 32F.  I think any argument whether or not NYC proper and Long Island are subtropical is over at this point.  We have an 8+ month growing season here.

[Dan76]

Many locations in SUFF have been below 32 already.

[dmillz25]

Sheesh that was an ugly EPS run at the end. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

20 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Sheesh that was an ugly EPS run at the end. 

We're still at or BN though

[PB GFI]

31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Sheesh that was an ugly EPS run at the end. 

After the next 15 days I would expect a break no ? 

If there's a lot of snow cover down , you are going to extend the period for a few days  .

The models always like to rush a change, so maybe we are fine through early Christmas week .

 

I expect us to moderate between the 20th - 31st.

But enjoy the next 15 days, it's our first early season period  at a long time. 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

By the time this pattern relaxes ,  we will look back at this period  ( which will extend to Christmas) , (  there's another shot coming around the back on the 20th  ) , we will refer to this as one of the better early season cold and snowy starts to a winter .

 

There will be multiple chances to snow over the next 20 days. 

The intensity and duration of that block is the key to the December forecast.

 

14 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Isn't it insane how one single incident (insane + anomalies over the Arctic) can cause this chain of close-to-unprecedented events?  We are kind of in some uncharted territory here going forward I would gather.  My understanding of how the models work is that the incorporate a lot of historical data/analogs to make forecasts - no analog of this.

These extreme warm Arctic, cold continents blocking patterns have become the new normal. We are finally going to see the coldest temperature

departures in the Northern Hemisphere shift to the North American side. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Sheesh that was an ugly EPS run at the end. 

Long way out to worry about that

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Long way out to worry about that

I know I know I'm just stating what it showed

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I know I know I'm just stating what it showed

Lets hope we snow soon

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS are showing the same thing around December 20th. Sometimes these rapid pattern changes can just as quickly reverse themselves. 

Strong blocking patterns can sometimes be more transient instead of longer duration. We are just going to have to wait and see how this plays out.

 

Quite a bit of spread on the GEFS by that time. EPS too for that matter. I agree with you, it's going to be a wait and see scenario. It quickly becomes like throwing darts blindfolded after day 10.

 

[Googlymoogly]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The main area to watch will be around Alaska. Nearly every piece of long range guidance replaces the block there with a vortex by December 20th.

We have seen how persistent the unfavorable Pacific pattern has been this October and November. So we'll have to see how long this more favorable

pattern can hold on.

 

You don't think it's rushing it? Does a vortex by Alaska mean mild air for the East every time? 

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

You don't think it's rushing it? Does a vortex by Alaska mean mild air for the East every time? 

Most times yeah. Low pressure counter clockwise flow up there will always bring mild PAC air. Since we would be south of low pressure west winds would bring it into the US

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The main area to watch will be around Alaska. Nearly every piece of long range guidance replaces the block there with a vortex by December 20th.

We have seen how persistent the unfavorable Pacific pattern has been this October and November. So we'll have to see how long this more favorable

pattern can hold on.

 

 

Right. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[PB GFI]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The main area to watch will be around Alaska. Nearly every piece of long range guidance replaces the block there with a vortex by December 20th.

We have seen how persistent the unfavorable Pacific pattern has been this October and November. So we'll have to see how long this more favorable

pattern can hold on.

 

 

The 1st 2 light threats are aimed N of 80 with the exception of the N shore of LI .

They will snow with round 1 .

 

Then I like the day 8 system and I believe there to be one around day 12.

Those 2 I like for all.

Our best snows like to come on the backside of the vortex pulling away .

That's 14 ish days out .

Lots of damage temps and snow wise are possible before that happens. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Lets hope we snow soon

Nam is juicy again for interior tomorrow night 

[PB GFI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

It's funny how all the long range guidance is showing the potential for a milder post December 20th matching December 2013, 2014, and 2015.

If this does indeed happen, at least the following 3 Januaries turned out to be better than the December patterns did.

 

 The difference this time temps wise is there will be snow cover all over the N/E including the area so the first part of any moderation gets muted then we will have to see if the backing off is transient or sets in .

 

Will not be able to see that for another 5 days to be sure. 

But the next 15 are fun to track .

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

The main area to watch will be around Alaska. Nearly every piece of long range guidance replaces the block there with a vortex by December 20th.

We have seen how persistent the unfavorable Pacific pattern has been this October and November. So we'll have to see how long this more favorable

pattern can hold on.

 

I'm not sold on it yet.  Almost every time historically that vortex has been there in October and November and has been kicked west into the Aleutians in early to mid December it never comes back.. It seems the window to get rid of it is usually through 12/20, if you do for whatever reason it seems like it's a semi permanent shift.  Even in 12/2001 when we got cold that vortex was still there and the cold was mostly NAO induced 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Nam drops 4-6"+ for interior between moms and Wednesday 

[psv88]

28 overnight. Forecast low was like 34. Second time below 30 and 6th time  32 or below. even farmingdale hit 30 last night and they dont radiate well. Nyc and LI shouldn't be grouped together as having the same climate. 

[dWave]

10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Looks like KNYC will get its first 32F or below reading on Friday at the latest.  Becoming pretty common we get our first freezes in Dec these days.  Last winter it took until January to get below 32F.  I think any argument whether or not NYC proper and Long Island are subtropical is over at this point.  We have an 8+ month growing season here.

I have peppers growing I havent paid much attention to, but yday i noticed they look good and are still producing. I forgot it was Dec for a sec, then I thought the same thing your saying. We have a pretty impressive growing season for this lattitude..at least within the UHI. The same plants 10 miles away would have died weeks ago though.

[Cfa]

Another night where the low temperature remained way above the forecast, it was supposed to drop to 35 but it stayed in the 40's. No frost yet, let alone a freeze.

My banana plant as well as some palms are still growing, and I still have peppers I haven't picked.

[masomenos]

39 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Another night where the low temperature remained way above the forecast, it was supposed to drop to 35 but it stayed in the 40's. No frost yet, let alone a freeze.

My banana plant as well as some palms are still growing, and I still have peppers I haven't picked.

Yeah, we haven't even remotely approached freezing while the middle and outer suburbs had their first frosts and freezes weeks ago. My sorry tomato plant keeps producing, but the fruits produced in the winter never seem to be very edible.

[mimillman]

I seem to have made a mistake by moving here from Chicago. Hopefully the nor'easters make it worth it.

[masomenos]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even when NYC has gotten cold in December during the 2000's, it has generally been less impressive cold than we have seen in the past.

Late first freezes and mild monthly minimums have become more common during the 2000's in NYC.

 

NYC December first freezes since 2000:

2016...2011...2010...2009...2006...2001

Decembers with monthly min above 20 degrees:

2015...2014...2012...2011...2007...2001

Decembers with a monthly minimum below 15 degrees:

2008...2005...2004...2000

Last December single digit low in NYC:

1989

Last December below zero reading in NYC:

1980

 

It has become pretty difficult to distinguish climatological differences between coastal Virginia and the NYC UHI up until the end of December. Without an exceptionally anomalous air mass, the city and airports can't get below freezing these days. 20+ miles away from the city is a totally different story, though.

[masomenos]

7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I seem to have made a mistake by moving here from Chicago. Hopefully the nor'easters make it worth it.

Hahaha. You'll never get back that seasonal balance of interesting wx you had in Chicago, but things get pretty fun when the nor'easter train gets rolling with successive storms.

[CIK62]

12Z GFS  posits a 50 deg. temperature drop from 12/17-20.   (850mb from +10C to a -21C)  It was showing a snowstorm on 17-18 a day or two ago.    Like a trash novel.  Weeklies still look like ..........

Hey!  Can I change my bet about every 6 hours?