dmillz25 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The core of the BN air never gets here. MidWest is much more below their normal compared to us. Do not knock the CFS, it showed this cold outbreak 2-weeks ago for the (10th-13th) and also showed it sliding by us thereafter. Model logic I see. Ok well see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: He's forecasting based off the cfs. He's ignoring the gfs and Euro. The pattern will probably relax around the holidays. The question is do we get PAC fire hose or just near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Gfs has light snow for the area on Monday. Might be some slick spots north and west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 No talk about the recent model runs? They look great for winter weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Interesting to see the block near Alaska form right over the record area of open water for so late in the season where the sea ice is well below normal. So maybe this block that is driving the cold pattern coming up is getting a low sea ice boost like we saw with the record Kara block near the end of last December. The SST's to the west of Alaska are also showing much warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Euro still has that period of light snow Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 41 another night where temps stay above forecasts. This cold air source is so stale. That will change next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Btw case in point Dec 9-19 on the Gefs is well BN, these long range temp anomalys change with the wind gefs also no longer show the Dec 12-14 warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Flurries here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Interesting to see the block near Alaska form right over the record area of open water for so late in the season where the sea ice is well below normal. So maybe this block that is driving the cold pattern coming up is getting a low sea ice boost like we saw with the record Kara block near the end of last December. The SST's to the west of Alaska are also showing much warmer than normal. By the time this pattern relaxes , we will look back at this period ( which will extend to Christmas) , ( there's another shot coming around the back on the 20th ) , we will refer to this as one of the better early season cold and snowy starts to a winter . There will be multiple chances to snow over the next 20 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: By the time this pattern relaxes , we will look back at this period ( which will extend to Christmas) , ( there's another shot coming around the back on the 20th ) , we will refer to this as one of the better early season cold and snowy starts to a winter . There will be multiple chances to snow over the next 20 days. I'll take one good chance around the 23rd-24th....I like what I'm seeing but it's only model mania at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Both the nam and gfs has light snow Monday morning. Looks like a decent chance at a coating to inch north and west. City has surface temps in the upper 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Both the nam and gfs has light snow Monday morning. Looks like a decent chance at a coating to inch north and west. City has surface temps in the upper 30's I would watch that secondary low for Tuesday night into Wednesday it definitely has more potential. - and as you know models always have a warmer core in there so as the low redevelops it could give us a burst of heavy wet snow Monday afternoon after the light stuff is out. Evaporative cooling would come into play if you will. Definitely winter is here so enjoy and happy tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Gfs shows a cutter for the 12th while the Euro has a snow event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Gfs shows a cutter for the 12th while the Euro has a snow event..Same event the JMA showed yesterday (haven't seen today)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Overall excellent winter pattern coming up...lots of cold and at least chances at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 47 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Overall excellent winter pattern coming up...lots of cold and at least chances at snow high-latitude north pacific blocking and a deep trough/SE Canada has Miller B written all over it, look for this in 11-15 Dec timeframe IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Boy that EPS run was pretty, fridged cold, many snow opportunities suprising amount of Ens show significant snowfalls for much of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 greatest December cold and snowy periods since 1945 in NYC...all had an average temperature 32.0 or lower and at least 10" of snowfall...will 2016 make the list?... 15 day period...year...temp/max/min/precip/snow/big snow/max snow dept. Dec. 10-24........1945..23.7..45..10..1.27"..12.2"...8.3".....9" Dec23-Jan.6.1947-48..29.7..37..18..4.55"..32.1"..26.4"...26" Dec 14-28.........1948..30.8..51..10..2.70"..21.3"..16.0"...16" Dec 11-25.........1960..25.8..49....8..2.50"..16.6"..15.2"...15" Dec 11-25.........1963..27.0..39..11..1.19"..10.3"....6.6"....7" Dec 9-23...........1995..28.9..44..15..1.77"..11.5"....7.7"....7" Dec22-Jan5.....00-01..25.2..34..14..1.12"..14.6"..12.0"..12" Dec19-Jan2.....09-10..31.9..55..16..3.07"..12.6"..10.9"..11" Dec 14-28........2010..29.3..40..19..1.62"..20.1"..20.0"..20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 20 hours ago, Allsnow said: The pattern will probably relax around the holidays. The question is do we get PAC fire hose or just near normal We do have an "absurd warmth around Christmas" streak to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Interesting to see the block near Alaska form right over the record area of open water for so late in the season where the sea ice is well below normal. So maybe this block that is driving the cold pattern coming up is getting a low sea ice boost like we saw with the record Kara block near the end of last December. The SST's to the west of Alaska are also showing much warmer than normal. Isn't it insane how one single incident (insane + anomalies over the Arctic) can cause this chain of close-to-unprecedented events? We are kind of in some uncharted territory here going forward I would gather. My understanding of how the models work is that the incorporate a lot of historical data/analogs to make forecasts - no analog of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Upton isn't very bullish on the storm this week as of yet for the city. They have us staying at 40 or above for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Boy that EPS run was pretty, fridged cold, many snow opportunities suprising amount of Ens show significant snowfalls for much of area That was kind of a weenie run. Many more individual members getting decent snows into the region than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 32 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Upton isn't very bullish on the storm this week as of yet for the city. They have us staying at 40 or above for the duration. Sunday night our surface temps might hurt the coast. Might be wet flakes or a very cold rain. North and west looks good for 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 35 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Upton isn't very bullish on the storm this week as of yet for the city. They have us staying at 40 or above for the duration. The storm is going to be in the morning. 850's are cold enough to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS has a coastal on the 12th. Warm for the coast but a lot of snow inland. It showed a cutter on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Anthony Masiello@antmasiello The interior Northeast and Midwest Dec snow pattern in range now. Here on the coastal plain, I'll keep my head level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Heat still appears to be on via the CFS Weeklies around the 18th. and into the new year by several days at least. Everyday it shows the same thing would tend to increase chance it is onto something, unfortunately. Perhaps the storm will act like a Klingon disrupter weapon and send a reflection back 5,000 miles to the Pacific. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Anthony Masiello@antmasiello The interior Northeast and Midwest Dec snow pattern in range now. Here on the coastal plain, I'll keep my head level Looks like an interior winter but we will see some snow on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Heat still appears to be on via the CFS Weeklies around the 18th. and into the new year by several days at least. Everyday it shows the same thing would tend to increase chance it is onto something, unfortunately. Perhaps the storm will act like a Klingon disrupter weapon and send a reflection back 5,000 miles to the Pacific. LOL. CFS your favorite model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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