Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 If that happens, we are in real serious trouble and I mean real serious. There's no way to sugar coat that scenario You speaking in terms of entire winter in serious trouble? I know there were major concerns back in Oct and early Nov regarding historically low snowpack across much of Eastern Canada for that time of year. That used to be a sign of a dud winter in our areas in years past anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I'd normally agree even with unanimous models in the long range saying raging Pacific jet and strong +EPO, but the caveat here is the stratospheric PV. It's looking likely now that it strengthens substantially and moves right over the north pole. If that happens, we are in real serious trouble and I mean real serious. There's no way to sugar coat that scenario We have seen snow in terrible patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have seen snow in terrible patterns Yea it's called luck and sometimes we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Isn't the strat PV taking some hits or is it the tropo? I think I seen something on it just don't remember which was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Before then we should have a few threats with cold air around. Obviously we still risk cutters I don't mind cutters. Sometimes cutters can help set up confluence for the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 lol at some of the analysis in here. Not Bluewave of course ...... The driver is the WPO not the EPO here. It's what's bending the Siberian jet into CANADA and freezing it . That air is sliding access the CONUS. There's no fire hose PAC air coming this month in fact the PNA turns POS. The weeklies aren't "Warm" , the 7 day scale on the mean is plus .2 .3 which shows up as N on the actual euro ( Maue ) just scales it . oh BTW 5 days ago they were cold through the 46 day period, funny not a peep about that Thrs thru Sunday here .... The same guys who missed this cold 15 day period are now onto Massielo s warmer look. The dude missed this up coming period from just 3 days ago . The WPO is the driver not the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: lol at some of the analysis in here. Not Bluewave of course ...... The driver is the WPO not the EPO here. It's what's bending the Siberian jet into CANADA and freezing it . That air is sliding access the CONUS. There's no fire hose PAC air coming this month in fact the PNA turns POS. The weeklies aren't "Warm" , the 7 day scale on the mean is plus .2 .3 which shows up as N on the actual euro ( Maue ) just scales it . oh BTW 5 days ago they were cold through the 46 day period, funny not a peep about that Thrs thru Sunday here .... The same guys who missed this cold 15 day period are now onto Massielo s warmer look. The dude missed this up coming period from just 3 daya ago . The WPO is the driver not the EPO. The weeklies are slightly warmer week 3 and 4 and we know how fickle those weeks are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 For the record, as of today, the CFS has no BN day here starting the 17th. and continuing to NewYear'sDay. Ironically, X-MAS is a lone one day holdout and a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: lol at some of the analysis in here. Not Bluewave of course ...... The driver is the WPO not the EPO here. It's what's bending the Siberian jet into CANADA and freezing it . That air is sliding access the CONUS. There's no fire hose PAC air coming this month in fact the PNA turns POS. The weeklies aren't "Warm" , the 7 day scale on the mean is plus .2 .3 which shows up as N on the actual euro ( Maue ) just scales it . oh BTW 5 days ago they were cold through the 46 day period, funny not a peep about that Thrs thru Sunday here .... The same guys who missed this cold 15 day period are now onto Massielo s warmer look. The dude missed this up coming period from just 3 daya ago . The WPO is the driver not the EPO. You got it. The key to keeping North America cold beyond the middle of December is how long that poleward Aleutian ridge that is turning the WPO negative stays in place. All we really know for sure at this point is that week 2 of December will be colder than week 1 for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: lol at some of the analysis in here. Not Bluewave of course ...... The driver is the WPO not the EPO here. It's what's bending the Siberian jet into CANADA and freezing it . That air is sliding access the CONUS. There's no fire hose PAC air coming this month in fact the PNA turns POS. The weeklies aren't "Warm" , the 7 day scale on the mean is plus .2 .3 which shows up as N on the actual euro ( Maue ) just scales it . oh BTW 5 days ago they were cold through the 46 day period, funny not a peep about that Thrs thru Sunday here .... The same guys who missed this cold 15 day period are now onto Massielo s warmer look. The dude missed this up coming period from just 3 daya ago . The WPO is the driver not the EPO. The discussion on this subforum is great! The trolling on twitter by some well respected mets throwing out little tidbits that points to a warm winter to get under peoples skin has gotten ridiculous. Good news is if people wanted a BN winter then Dec is starting exactly like they would want. Agree, the weeklies weren't "warm"...sure there were warm periods in there but people make it seem like they showed a 11/12 repeat. Interesting that tacomans winter forecast top 5 analog composite had a +EPO Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Sunday-Monday is getting more interesting for the interior, light to moderate snowfall is in the realm of possibility for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Isn't the strat PV taking some hits or is it the tropo? I think I seen something on it just don't remember which was it It's forcast to strengthen over the next few weeks. Will kill any chance of a -AO. eps over night lost the +epo but the end of the run has a weak -epo. we will have a few chances with this cold snap. Hopefully we can get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: I think winter is taking a big hiatus 'round these parts. I think the "grand finale" to our two decades worth of major snow storms was last January. Not saying we won't have some snow here and there, but I think these 1-2 foot snowstorms are done with for a few years at least. A shame because my son is about to turn two and there's nothing more that I'd love than to get into a snowball fight with him. Most of the 80s and early 90s significant pre Christmas snows were very rare. We got lucky from 2002-2013. There's a reason our average Dec snowfall was around 3". The same goes for major snowfalls of 18" or more. Instead of getting 1 or 2 per decade we've been getting them every 2 to 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It's forcast to strengthen over the next few weeks. Will kill any chance of a -AO. eps over night lost the +epo but the end of the run has a weak -epo. we will have a few chances with this cold snap. Hopefully we can get something We need enough HP over SE Canada to prevent all the more significant storms from cutting or hugging. December 2008 had the strong poleward Aleutian ridge combined with only some weak -NAO blocking. A storm was able to get forced under instead of cutting on the 19th and it let NYC finish the month with above normal snowfall. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us1219.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro is still robust compared to other models for Sunday night. Has .10+ all snow for areas north of ttn. Surface temps are still in the mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro is still robust compared to other models for Sunday night. Has .10+ all snow for areas north of ttn. Surface temps are still in the mid 30's Nam looked good initially but dies out once LP slips offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Looking to the long-range, it appears that there is much greater uncertainty than typical. If one looks at the objective analog years from the 8-day and 11-day GFS ensembles, one finds just 20% of the years in common (1958 and 1989). That absence of common years shows just how uncertain the pattern evolution is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 The Euro really pumps up the ridge north of Alaska day 5-10. You want to see that feature persist into the longer range for the cold to lock in beyond mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Nam has light snow for the area Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Gfs now has the period of light snow early Monday morning. Some decent lift around 06z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro really pumps up the ridge north of Alaska day 5-10. You want to see that feature persist into the longer range for the cold to lock in beyond mid-December. Might be kind of an ameteurish question, but is it wise to draw inferences from the fact that, as of late, LR models have too hastily bulldozed major pattern features like this one? Wouldn't that weigh in favor of keeping the cold locked in for an extended period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam has light snow for the area Monday morning 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs now has the period of light snow early Monday morning. Some decent lift around 06z Monday. Unfortunately neither seem to allow for much in the form of accumulation, N+W areas see a Dusting to .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Unfortunately neither seem to allow for much in the form of accumulation, N+W areas see a Dusting to .5" Temps are marginal at best for the coast which will limit accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Temps are marginal at best for the coast which will limit accumulation Although 18z redevelops a secondary low that tracks up coast after the Wed LP slides through, wobbled this idea back and forth for a couple days, almost changing each run, certainly a storm to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 some light snow falling currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 14 hours ago, Eduardo said: Might be kind of an ameteurish question, but is it wise to draw inferences from the fact that, as of late, LR models have too hastily bulldozed major pattern features like this one? Wouldn't that weigh in favor of keeping the cold locked in for an extended period? Yeah, blocking features have been locking in for extended periods once they become established in a given region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 If you ask me the cold air barely even gets here before it is scoured out by total zonal flow starting near the 17th. and continuing till the start of 2017 or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: If you ask me the cold air barely even gets here before it is scoured out by total zonal flow starting near the 17th. and continuing till the start of 2017 or beyond. Huh? Some places will be -2 to -5 between Dec 9 and 13th, a single +2 to +3 day on the 14th, BN 15, 16 and average on the 17th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 22 minutes ago, CIK62 said: If you ask me the cold air barely even gets here before it is scoured out by total zonal flow starting near the 17th. and continuing till the start of 2017 or beyond. Do you have logical reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Huh? Some places will be -2 to -5 between Dec 9 and 13th, a single +2 to +3 day on the 14th, BN 15, 16 and average on the 17th... The core of the BN air never gets here. MidWest is much more below their normal compared to us. Do not knock the CFS, it showed this cold outbreak 2-weeks ago for the (10th-13th) and also showed it sliding by us thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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