December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[NortheastPAWx]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

oh, just your run of the mill +25 departure day.....

It really has become run of the mill the last year and a half.

[JerseyWx]

A sunny 55° here 

[Isotherm]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

At 

I didn"t look at this at as a horrid December. There were a few days of nice cold and 17F set the 2010s decadal low for the month. We got 4" here on 12/17, which, even though quickly washed away, was a decent snowfall for Dec. I think Dec 1st averages are 48/32 so it's usually not that wintry. The suburbs may pick up 1-2" Thursday as well and even NYC may see a coating. 

The problem is we can't achieve a real -NAO. The best we can get is a weak NATL ridge for a week, which gives us a week or 10 days of opportunities with the EPO tanking. 

I agree that ozone and stratospheric temps are underappreciated. The lack of ozone to absorb IR may be causing the record low stratospheric temps and 4SD +AO. If we cannot weaken that vortex, all blocking episodes will be transient and revert ro the mean -ENSO/-AAM/SE ridge.

 Your area N of NYC always looked better for this month (and winter overall). I recorded 1.8" for December, all of which was gone in 15 hours. A handful of very torchy days. Underwhelming to very bad in this area.

Going forward, remember our discussion awhile ago regarding analogs - you asked why I chose so many mod+  Nina years. Other indicators will continue to support the NW trough / SE ridge z500, from hemispheric torques, to tropical forcing and the NAM state. The result is a z500 that projects strongly onto the more robust Nina maps. Hopefully we can achieve something in that window.

[Morris]

Dew point down from 52 to 31 behind the cold front.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

oh, just your run of the mill +25 departure day.....

Probably a midnight low incoming so won't end up quite that much

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably a midnight low incoming so won't end up quite that much

Agree, especially non urban areas...we'll be down in the 30's in no time with the 4:30 sunset.

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably a midnight low incoming so won't end up quite that much

Any idea how many weenie minds you just blew with this statement LOL

[winterwarlock]

61 for me today.

.bada bing bada bang

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, nzucker said:

That was 14-15...Dec was mild, then the cold arrived in late Jan w a 4-6" event on the 23rd and a blizzard on the 26th. Feb 2015 was one of the coldest months on record w a -11F departure at NYC. Early March saw a 20" snowpack in Central Park.

There's still a lot of time left but the problem is it will be hard to sustain blocking with the La Nina/cold stratospheric vortex/-AAM/low ozone regime. So we need to cash in during the Jan 5-15 window with the -EPO block because the pattern will revert quickly to the mean winter pattern, which is a cold Northwest/-PNA and a SE ridge.

Dude how weird is it that Feb '15 was insanely cold here but it wasn't until the balmy 15-16 winter that we got Central Park finally below zero.  Some things just defy explanation.

[Paragon]

4 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

yeah after I had posted I realized its now been about 2 years.. how I miss that winter! So much white gold

If you're talking about two winters ago, that one had a February and March to remember with almost 20 inches of snow in each month and temps in the single digits in both months!  Didn't the ocean temps cool down to near freezing or even a little below and I saw that the east end got something I had never heard of before- freezing drizzle because of an onshore wind!

The funny thing was in both winters we got a kickstart in late January (around the same date!) but the one in 2015 was a near miss (that was an eastern new england winter but we cashed in later in the season) and the one in Jan 2016 was what Jan 2015 was supposed to be.  Last winter was unique for being a 40-50 inch snowfall winter with avg temps of 40F +

 

[PB GFI]

54 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 Your area N of NYC always looked better for this month (and winter overall). I recorded 1.8" for December, all of which was gone in 15 hours. A handful of very torchy days. Underwhelming to very bad in this area.

Going forward, remember our discussion awhile ago regarding analogs - you asked why I chose so many mod+  Nina years. Other indicators will continue to support the NW trough / SE ridge z500, from hemispheric torques, to tropical forcing and the NAM state. The result is a z500 that projects strongly onto the more robust Nina maps. Hopefully we can achieve something in that window.

 

I got the same  1.8  man.

The - 3 Between the the 5th thru 20th  was opined on but the back end just shredded the month and blew my monthly  departure apart.

I thought the 25th thru 5th would  be AN , but not plus 10 .

I am - 3 to - 4 Jan 5 thru 20 and  will address the back 10 days in a week or so , something tells me there's another one of these when that period pulls back 

 

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Dude how weird is it that Feb '15 was insanely cold here but it wasn't until the balmy 15-16 winter that we got Central Park finally below zero.  Some things just defy explanation.

that was incredible last year given the lack of cold in a general sense....

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Stark contrast to 1980-1989.

2007-2016....7 years Dec 21-31 reaching 60....2 years reaching 70...no years below 10...no years below 0

1980-1989....3 years .............................60.....1 year...............70...4 years below 10.......1 year below 0

I would take this decade over the 80s decade in which big snowfalls were few and far between.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

61 with clear skies and nw wind here at my station in Sheepshead Bay

This is the kind of nw wind that would bring 100+ temps to the coast in July.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that was incredible last year given the lack of cold in a general sense....

It just decided it was going to be cold as F for like two days then it was gone.

Feb 12 - 27/15

Feb 13 - 22/6

Feb 14 - 15/-1

Feb 15 - 35/13

Feb 16 - 54/35

 

We were in the 60s not even 6 days after this below zero reading and Feb finished +3.  Um, ok.

[Allsnow]

Eps looks great to start January 

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Dude how weird is it that Feb '15 was insanely cold here but it wasn't until the balmy 15-16 winter that we got Central Park finally below zero.  Some things just defy explanation.

And it's even weirder that we got below zero in the middle of February.  I think the last time NYC went at or below zero in February was back in the 40s? Or was it the 60s?  Either way, it's been a long time.

The two cold records that really stand out are the -1 on Christmas morning in 1980 (when was the last time before that it went below zero at NYC in December?) and the -1 on Valentine's Day last winter.

[Allsnow]

Gefs kind of agree lol

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 Your area N of NYC always looked better for this month (and winter overall). I recorded 1.8" for December, all of which was gone in 15 hours. A handful of very torchy days. Underwhelming to very bad in this area.

Going forward, remember our discussion awhile ago regarding analogs - you asked why I chose so many mod+  Nina years. Other indicators will continue to support the NW trough / SE ridge z500, from hemispheric torques, to tropical forcing and the NAM state. The result is a z500 that projects strongly onto the more robust Nina maps. Hopefully we can achieve something in that window.

Iso, NYC and Long Island also had 3-3.6 inches in that storm as well as about 0.5 inch from an earlier storm so we have about 4 inches on the season.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs kind of agree lol

what a weenie map there!  Did that run out of JB's basement?   WOW.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what a weenie map there!  Did that run out of JB's basement?   WOW.

The eps is even better with a -nao but often it's been to neg nao happy in the past. Even with the gefs look it's the best we seen all season 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I would take this decade over the 80s decade in which big snowfalls were few and far between.

Big December snowfalls have been few and far between 2011-2016. But the 11 year run from 2000-2010 was the best we ever saw for snowfall in modern times. 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big December snowfalls have been few and far between 2011-2016. But the 11 year run from 2000-2010 was the best we ever saw for snowfall in modern times. 

For a while there it was every Dec 5th or so we got some good snow - which happened to always coincide with UVA's "Lighting of the Lawn" while I was in school.  It was perfect.

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big December snowfalls have been few and far between 2011-2016. But the 11 year run from 2000-2010 was the best we ever saw for snowfall in modern times. 

This is true, but in the 80s, we only had one historic snowstorm in any winter month (and another in April, which is amazing); in the last 15 years or so, we seem to be averaging one historic snowstorm every other year or more, which is even more amazing.

[pazzo83]

I was just looking back at the temps from last Dec - that was a level of anomalous we might never see again.  Extended periods of October or late April/early May temps in mid/late December.  Wow.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps is even better with a -nao but often it's been to neg nao happy in the past. Even with the gefs look it's the best we seen all season 

even if the NAO is bogus, that's still a great EPO ridge. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

For a while there it was every Dec 5th or so we got some good snow - which happened to always coincide with UVA's "Lighting of the Lawn" while I was in school.  It was perfect.

 

8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

This is true, but in the 80s, we only had one historic snowstorm in any winter month (and another in April, which is amazing); in the last 15 years or so, we seem to be averaging one historic snowstorm every other year or more, which is even more amazing.

The 12-30-00 snowstorm kicked the whole snowy pattern off. That one broke the long snow drought following the historic 95-96 winter.

Some of the best snowstorm swells for the surfers with that storm.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The 12-30-00 snowstorm kicked the whole snowy pattern off. That one broke the long snow drought following the historic 95-96 winter.

Some of the best snowstorm swells for the surfers with that storm.

People forget how close that month was to being a shutout despite being something like 3-5 degrees below normal.  I think NYC had 0.8 on the month going into that storm, and that storm came close on a couple of occasions inside day 5 to not happening. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

People forget how close that month was to being a shutout despite being something like 3-5 degrees below normal.  I think NYC had 0.8 on the month going into that storm, and that storm came close on a couple of occasions inside day 5 to not happening. 

December 2010 was the same way. I can remember all the fantasy storms Euro and otherwise that disappeared once we got to within a few days.

It finally took losing the -PNA later in the month for the record -AO/-NAO block to finally deliver on Boxing Day.

[Paragon]

Yes, that's exactly what I was thinking.  Before the Boxing Day storm, most of the forecasters were predicting a below average snowfall winter; that one storm changed all that.  00-01 would be remembered as fondly as 10-11 if only the March 01 storm had panned out....