psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Was 58 earlier now a chilly 55 December to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 52℉, had dropped to 50 before though. Just a reminder though, way cooler than last year by at least 10 degrees about this week last year. Christmas last year had a record high lol. Wasn't the year before last warm in December followed by an onslaught of cold and many snow storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 52℉, had dropped to 50 before though. Just a reminder though, way cooler than last year by at least 10 degrees about this week last year. Christmas last year had a record high lol. Wasn't the year before last warm in December followed by an onslaught of cold and many snow storms? Yes but not until the 3rd week of January or so before we saw any real snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes but not until the 3rd week of January or so before we saw any real snow That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, wthrmn654 said: That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 2 years ago would not have been last winter. Although last winter did end up ok out in Suffolk, a few decent events, made our way up to at least 40 inches in most places, even if 20 inches came from the blizzard. This winter is turning out much different with respect to storm track, other than this upcoming threat, which is taking a favorable track, but with a stale airmass. Hopefully the city and coastal areas can cash in in January and turn this turd around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: 2 years ago would not have been last winter. Although last winter did end up ok out in Suffolk, a few decent events, made our way up to at least 40 inches in most places, even if 20 inches came from the blizzard. This winter is turning out much different with respect to storm track, other than this upcoming threat, which is taking a favorable track, but with a stale airmass. Hopefully the city and coastal areas can cash in in January and turn this turd around. yeah after I had posted I realized its now been about 2 years.. how I miss that winter! So much white gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 2014-15 got cold right before new years with some minor events but took until the 23rd to get snow but then we got into an 8 week period of historic cold with lots of storms. That was also the year we had snow the day before thanksgiving before a mild December took over. 2013-14 started earlier, in December with very cold and snowy Jan/Feb but the storms shut off after mid Feb with most being suppressed to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 59! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 60! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 39 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. That was 14-15...Dec was mild, then the cold arrived in late Jan w a 4-6" event on the 23rd and a blizzard on the 26th. Feb 2015 was one of the coldest months on record w a -11F departure at NYC. Early March saw a 20" snowpack in Central Park. There's still a lot of time left but the problem is it will be hard to sustain blocking with the La Nina/cold stratospheric vortex/-AAM/low ozone regime. So we need to cash in during the Jan 5-15 window with the -EPO block because the pattern will revert quickly to the mean winter pattern, which is a cold Northwest/-PNA and a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 hours ago, bluewave said: This is a -PNA/ La Nina pattern. So that's why the mean trough remains in the west. We saw the same pattern in December with the warm start Dec 1-9..cold Dec 11-20...warm 21-31. Sure the dates and the duration of the warm and cold intervals may change, but this is classic La Nina. Models overestimate the cold and underestimate the warm. That's why December will be warm when some of the long range forecasts were colder. According to the weeklies though week 1 to weeks 2 and 3 are suppose to be good for cold and snow on the east coast. On top of that GEFS Ensembles. Plus, the EPS OOZ out to 240 hours shows an ocean ridge bridge that puts the US in the deep freeze. Then you have the latest 15 day EPS that shows coast to coast cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: 60! Yep, after a drop we're up to 61 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 This looks like a new 10 year record for reaching 60 or higher December 21-31 2016...2015..2014..2013...2011..2008...2007. 2015 and 2013 reached 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 amazing how the warmth almost always over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: amazing how the warmth almost always over performs. Forecasts a few days ago had a high of like 48F today LOL...instead it's 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 ISP at 62! FRG - 60 PSV - 60 JFK - 60 LGA - 61 NYC - 59 EWR - 61 Teterboro - 60 PHL - 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: amazing how the warmth almost always over performs. It's easy to lose track of how often this has been occurring. The only two Arctic shots that I can remember meeting or exceeding expectations this year for lows were 1/5/16 and 2/14/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: ISP at 62! FRG - 60 PSV - 60 JFK - 60 LGA - 61 NYC - 59 EWR - 61 Teterboro - 60 PHL - 64 Torch! Isotherms nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: ISP at 62! ties record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: This looks like a new 10 year record for reaching 60 or higher December 21-31 2016...2015..2014..2013...2011..2008...2007. 2015 and 2013 reached 70 Scary statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 22 minutes ago, psv88 said: ISP at 62! FRG - 60 PSV - 60 JFK - 60 LGA - 61 NYC - 59 EWR - 61 Teterboro - 60 PHL - 64 Feels great! I have two wintertime mantras: - Snow is king - Cold is valuable in its ability to deliver snow and/or sustain snowpack If the pattern stinks (which this one does for the coast) might as well bask in the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 hours ago, nzucker said: Isotherm, I think we are getting what we expected this winter. People got excited w the vortex split in Oct, and that did lead to a decent Nov 20-Dec 17 period, esp in the interior where we expected the winter to feature above average snow. I expect we'll have a period of cold/snow Jan 5-15, then a milder Jan 15-Feb 15 pattern w the low AAM and strong vortex, keeping the cold bottled to the northwest. Maybe the vortex weakens in sync w warming ENSO to give us a good March. Winter seems like a weak version of 71-72/83-84/07-08. It seems more 1996-97 like to me so far. That winter I believe had a constant ridge more or less near AK but it was always too far west. Most of the US was cold that winter outside of the East Coast. The difference so far is it seems the NAO may cooperate more at times for us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Hi temps since Dec 22: 48, 46, 46, 48, 51, 61 Nice AN stretch for us. Average for today is 39/25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Sunny and 61* Steady around 59 all morn untill the wind shift and clear skies temp dropped a few but bouncing back even higher now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The 12Z Euro 500 height composite at 240 is absurd. I don't buy that there would still not be more of a SE ridge though in the setup it shows. Its definitely too suppressed with any ridging there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 32 minutes ago, Sundog said: Scary statistic. Stark contrast to 1980-1989. 2007-2016....7 years Dec 21-31 reaching 60....2 years reaching 70...no years below 10...no years below 0 1980-1989....3 years .............................60.....1 year...............70...4 years below 10.......1 year below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 61 with clear skies and nw wind here at my station in Sheepshead Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Shacked up in Brooklyn for the next few days near Coney Island, and it's 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 oh, just your run of the mill +25 departure day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: oh, just your run of the mill +25 departure day..... +25 on the negative departure end would have have produced a daily high of between 10 and 15 degrees, depending where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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