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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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52℉, had dropped to 50 before though. Just a reminder though, way cooler than last year by at least 10 degrees about this week last year. Christmas last year had a record high lol. Wasn't the year before last warm in December followed by an onslaught of cold and many snow storms?

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9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

52℉, had dropped to 50 before though. Just a reminder though, way cooler than last year by at least 10 degrees about this week last year. Christmas last year had a record high lol. Wasn't the year before last warm in December followed by an onslaught of cold and many snow storms?

Yes but not until the 3rd week of January or so before we saw any real snow

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes but not until the 3rd week of January or so before we saw any real snow

That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 

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Just now, wthrmn654 said:

That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 

2 years ago would not have been last winter. Although last winter did end up ok out in Suffolk, a few decent events, made our way up to at least 40 inches in most places, even if 20 inches came from the blizzard. 

This winter is turning out much different with respect to storm track, other than this upcoming threat, which is taking a favorable track, but with a stale airmass. Hopefully the city and coastal areas can cash in in January and turn this turd around. 

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2 years ago would not have been last winter. Although last winter did end up ok out in Suffolk, a few decent events, made our way up to at least 40 inches in most places, even if 20 inches came from the blizzard. 

This winter is turning out much different with respect to storm track, other than this upcoming threat, which is taking a favorable track, but with a stale airmass. Hopefully the city and coastal areas can cash in in January and turn this turd around. 

yeah after I had posted I realized its now been about 2 years.. how I miss that winter! So much white gold:snowing:

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8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 

2014-15 got cold right before new years with some minor events but took until the 23rd to get snow but then we got into an 8 week period of historic cold with lots of storms. That was also the year we had snow the day before thanksgiving before a mild December took over.

2013-14 started earlier, in December with very cold and snowy Jan/Feb but the storms shut off after mid Feb with most being suppressed to our south

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39 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

That's what I thought! Or hmm,maybe it was winter before that... hmm....all I remember is I was building my house and it was about 2 years ago. I could of swore it started about new year's eve, and long range had been showing warm and dull for weeks,only to change few days before it started lol. 

That was 14-15...Dec was mild, then the cold arrived in late Jan w a 4-6" event on the 23rd and a blizzard on the 26th. Feb 2015 was one of the coldest months on record w a -11F departure at NYC. Early March saw a 20" snowpack in Central Park.

There's still a lot of time left but the problem is it will be hard to sustain blocking with the La Nina/cold stratospheric vortex/-AAM/low ozone regime. So we need to cash in during the Jan 5-15 window with the -EPO block because the pattern will revert quickly to the mean winter pattern, which is a cold Northwest/-PNA and a SE ridge.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

This is a -PNA/ La Nina pattern. So that's why the mean trough remains in the west. We saw the same pattern in December with the warm start

Dec 1-9..cold Dec 11-20...warm 21-31. Sure the dates and the duration of the warm and cold intervals may change, but this is classic La Nina.

Models overestimate the cold and underestimate the warm. That's why December will be warm when some of the long range forecasts were colder.

 

According to the weeklies though week 1 to weeks 2 and 3 are suppose to be good for cold and snow on the east coast. On top of that GEFS Ensembles. Plus, the EPS OOZ out to 240 hours shows an ocean ridge bridge that puts the US in the deep freeze. Then you have the latest 15 day EPS that shows coast to coast cold. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing how the warmth almost always over performs.

It's easy to lose track of how often this has been occurring. The only two Arctic shots that I can remember meeting or exceeding expectations 

this year for lows were 1/5/16 and 2/14/16.

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22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

ISP at 62!

FRG - 60

PSV - 60

JFK - 60

LGA - 61

NYC - 59

EWR - 61

Teterboro - 60

PHL - 64

Feels great!

I have two wintertime mantras:

- Snow is king 

- Cold is valuable in its ability to deliver snow and/or sustain snowpack

If the pattern stinks (which this one does for the coast) might as well bask in the warmth 

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3 hours ago, nzucker said:

Isotherm, I think we are getting what we expected this winter. People got excited w the vortex split in Oct, and that did lead to a decent Nov 20-Dec 17 period, esp in the interior where we expected the winter to feature above average snow.

I expect we'll have a period of cold/snow Jan 5-15, then a milder Jan 15-Feb 15 pattern w the low AAM and strong vortex, keeping the cold bottled to the northwest. Maybe the vortex weakens in sync w warming ENSO to give us a good March.

Winter seems like a weak version of 71-72/83-84/07-08. 

It seems more 1996-97 like to me so far.  That winter I believe had a constant ridge more or less near AK but it was always too far west.  Most of the US was cold that winter outside of the East Coast.  The difference so far is it seems the NAO may cooperate more at times for us this winter.

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32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Scary statistic. 

Stark contrast to 1980-1989.

2007-2016....7 years Dec 21-31 reaching 60....2 years reaching 70...no years below 10...no years below 0

1980-1989....3 years .............................60.....1 year...............70...4 years below 10.......1 year below 0

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