December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

7 hours ago, Morris said:

Midnight low of 36

 

What were your calls for December? And why ? 

 

Now go take a look at the day 10 thru 15 EPS at 500 and come back and tell us what I just wrote in here in just 2 days on this would evolve after the 5th didnt just magically appear this morning 

-WPO

-EPO

-AO

-NAO

 

Beaten down SE ridge ..

This is coast to coast cold after day 10 , and likely active as well 

 

 

 

[Morris]

55 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

What were your calls for December? And why ? 

 

Now go take a look at the day 10 thru 15 EPS at 500 and come back and tell us what I just wrote in here in just 2 days on this would evolve after the 5th didnt just magically appear this morning 

-WPO

-EPO

-AO

-NAO

 

Beaten down SE ridge ..

This is coast to coast cold after day 10 , and likely active as well 

 

 

 

I don't forecast. I enjoy reading your forecasts, so I remember them. I don't harp on them. Just brought it up.

[MJO812]

Thursday's storm is interesting. The interior should watch it to see if the low can bomb earlier. 

[nyblizz44]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Thursday's storm is interesting. The interior should watch it to see if the low can bomb earlier. 

Upton strongly hints at this : namely that the GFS has moved to a more amplified EURO solution. Forcast may turn turn more white than wet- though nowhere near aneintirely white solution

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

EPS/GEFS already trying to relax the pattern again by day 15. The Euro forms the block in the Atlantic a little too far south to really build back across

the pole. So we get a -EPO weak -NAO from the 5th through the 10th. After that who knows. Looks like we can count on at least a week of

cold and perhaps wintery threats.

 

Yeh , I will only look at the 10 to 15 , that ridge in the means over the period already adjusted in just the last 2 days 

 

That was the point I was trying to make 2 days ago .

2SD EPO and blocking in the ATLANTIC argued against a high height ridge .

 

After day 15 will get looked at in 5 days or so .

I want to see what that NEG under a ridge bridge can do first .

[PB GFI]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models keep the  PNA negative with an active vortex over Western NOAM. We need to keep the -EPO weak -NAO rolling otherwise the -PNA

will eventually pump the SE ridge again after January 10th. Hard to tell how long the more favorable pattern can hold on just yet.

 

The ridge will not win / overwhelm with the AO WPO EPO NAO negative.

The PNA will stay neg , but that looks like an  active with good source region air and a weak SE ridge with some blocking .

That smells like a gradient / WAA pattern for a time .

We want to end up on the right side of the barroclinic zone .

 

 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The ridge will not win / overwhelm with the AO WPO EPO NAO negative.

The PNA will stay neg , but that looks like an  active with good source region air and a weak SE ridge with some blocking .

That smells like a gradient / WAA pattern for a time .

We want to end up on the right side of the barroclinic zone .

 

 

I hope so. I believe 92/93 had a persistent negative PNA and we still cashed in with lots of overruning and ice events.

[weatherfreeeeak]

Any chances the Thursday system the euro is showing can be big here?

[nesussxwx]

9 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

Any chances the Thursday system the euro is showing can be big here?

Heard a faster transfer is better for the coast.

EURO has close to 2 feet for Central New England.

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Heard a faster transfer is better for the coast.

EURO has close to 2 feet for Central New England.

Yeah it gets going too late for us. We'll be lucky to see any snow out of this

[Paragon]

On 12/24/2016 at 9:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

Keep in mind the sample size on specific types of ninas is still small enough to wonder what "typical" is. How do you lump 1996 and this year in the same category, yet if we were just using enso phase and strength they would be in the same basket. 

Yes, exactly, and this doesn't even take into account other factors like solar, nao, amo, etc.  We seem to be cycling towards more + nao years since after sandy hit.

[Paragon]

14 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

NYC high of 50 today and a low of 39 exactly 10 degrees above normal for the date,

Not exactly ideal Christmas weather but I'll repeat the same mantra until I'm blue in the face, it was still a hell of a lot better than last year, and on top of it I had about a 40% white Christmas. The way the last 5 Decembers have gone this is Utopia.

Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah to all.

If it's not going to snow this is actually perfect weather.  Bright blue skies finally.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Euro stays course with a possible advisory level snowfall, MECS for parts of NE

[Paragon]

13 hours ago, nzucker said:

Today was actually a perfect XMAS in Westchester if it wasn't going to be super white. Temps in the mid to upper 40s, a nice breeze followed by a clear night, and plenty of patches of snow left from piles and plowing. 

Yeah, and even here on Long Island I saw dim stars I typically don't see- it must have been really clear last night.

[Paragon]

On 12/25/2016 at 0:44 PM, psv88 said:

46 and beautiful

It was 53 here yesterday and felt amazing.  I was outside in my backyard and thinking that this is the kind of weather I want if it isn't going to snow.

[Paragon]

On 12/25/2016 at 7:07 AM, bluewave said:

Cold neutral/weak can produce exactly the same pattern as a moderate La Nina. The most important factor with a La Nina seems to be

if we can get enough -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO to turn into a favorable pattern for snow and cold. So longer range we want to see improvements

in those teleconnections to mute -PNA/SE ridge which is the usual La Nina default setting.

 

 

 

 

But does the former influence the latter? In other words, is the la nina forcing also tilting the game in favor of a + nao? Or is it that we've been in a pattern that promotes + nao ever since we had Sandy?

 

[Paragon]

On 12/24/2016 at 9:18 PM, psuhoffman said:

There are way more permutations to this then some account for when we just blame enso. Yes if we look at a analog for all ninas we see a pattern similar to this. But that's lazy to just run with that. Looking only at weak ninas, which we don't even currently qualify as (or even in November officially even though ncep described the pattern liberally as Niña without clasifying it as such) we do not see even close to this kind of severe se ridge nw Arctic cold signal. Add in the fact that we have seen years with a much stronger negative enso anomaly produce nothing like this severe a persistent SE ridge. 96 even was a more negative enso state then right now.  It's as if the Niña affects are on sterroids even though the Niña is on life support.

There are also other factors here like west v east based Nino and Niña. Our best combo tends to be west Nino east Niña, and weak to moderate. Although perhaps that's redundant as all west ninos have been weak to mod. We have yet to record a super west Nino. Maybe we get 500" in that scenario. Lol 

Then add in all the other influences. The cold pool off the PAC nw. The warm Atlantic sst. The pdo flip. Relatively hostile nao AO combo which can't be solely Niña related as we had a pretty good nao in early winter 95/96 and 2010/11 with cold enso conditions. The qbo likely isn't helping as that is in a hostile state for blocking.  

All that said a west based cold neutral enso does absolutely nothing to help us. So while it's probably not the dominant force behind this pattern it does play a part as a more favorable enso state could help to mitigate other hostile factors. It's true that whatever tropical forcing there is, is located in a bad spot for us. But it's so weak that it can not overpower the pattern. But it's in no way helping to stop the other bigger problems we have that are. 

Good thoughts!  I've been thinking the same thing.  Also consider how snowy and cold 2010-11 was and that was a MUCH stronger La Nina, with analogs going back to the 1910s.  There's something else going on this season.  It almost seems like the SST are lagging behind the atmosphere, but that can't be it.  It might be that we are cycling towards more +nao winters, as even our snowy winters since 2011 have featured a +nao with the pacific driving the pattern.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah it gets going too late for us. We'll be lucky to see any snow out of this

We need an earlier bombing scenario. Still 3 days out.

[Allsnow]

Ton of potential after the 4th as the cold air from the -epo bleeds east. Until then we close the blinds along the coast and immediate suburbs 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ton of potential after the 4th as the cold air from the -epo bleeds east. Until then we close the blinds along the coast and immediate suburbs 

Agreed. Not even worth getting hopes up. We just have to time the cold air and moisture correctly this time. Before that looks great for NNE so I'll be headed to Vermont for for New Years 

[Paragon]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed. Not even worth getting hopes up. We just have to time the cold air and moisture correctly this time. Before that looks great for NNE so I'll be headed to Vermont for for New Years 

We've seen this scenario play out before.  I'm headed to the 'Dacks tomorrow until next Monday ;-) Looks like they'll do well in the snowfall department and I want to put my new Christmas present (aka skis) to the test.

[Allsnow]

43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed. Not even worth getting hopes up. We just have to time the cold air and moisture correctly this time. Before that looks great for NNE so I'll be headed to Vermont for for New Years 

Yep. Winter right now is where it's suppose to be . We will get our chances after the 4th

[PB GFI]

Transition to colder starts around the 5th and the weeklies are cold throughout. 

 

I like week 2 and 3 . I ignore the weeks after .

 

The coldest 10 to 15 days will start around mid month .

[nzucker]

5 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Transition to colder starts around the 5th and the weeklies are cold throughout. 

 

I like week 2 and 3 . I ignore the weeks after .

 

The coldest 10 to 15 days will start around mid month .

I still think we might be vulnerable to cutters and changeover events with the PNA being negative. It's too bad the Thursday event develops so late because we have a pretty sharp trough and potent vortmax. Even if we miss that, though, the cold will ensure we start some events as snow.

[PB GFI]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Both the EPS and GEFS agree on a warm to cold and then back to warm pattern to start January. The -EPO/weak -NAO holds on

for about 5-7 days before the -PNA pumps the SE Ridge back up again. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS is garbage and the Euro is making the same error I explained on here 3 days ago .

The EPS loves to dump the trough in the west.

I dont just look at models , I look at why they are wrong.

 

They are wrong day 14 15 , just like 3 days its 10 to 15 looks nothing like the new 8 to 13 .

 

We can always cut even in great patterns , but this is coming , dont get fooled.

[PB GFI]

Just now, bluewave said:

 

This is a -PNA/ La Nina pattern. So that's why the mean trough remains in the west. We saw the same pattern in December with the warm start

Dec 1-9..cold Dec 11-21...warm 21-31. Sure the dates and the duration of the warm and cold intervals may change, but this is classic La Nina.

KNYC was - 1.8 thru the 22nd , its not like the month torched , the back 6 did and that after having to erase the warmth in Canada .

-3SD WPO is the driver here again , except this time the cold is at the border not the pole , so you erase the lag 

The WPO is the driver and aims HP through Minnesota not Washington state.

I was warm Dec 25 thru Jan 10 , I saw it .

But now you have a -AO-NAO-EPO-WPO.

It will mute that ridge 

Warm ups are always lurking , but Jan could end up colder than what most think.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

KNYC was - 1.8 thru the 22nd , its not like the month torched , the back 6 did and that after having to erase the warmth in Canada .

-3SD WPO is the driver here again , except this time the cold is at the border not the pole , so you erase the lag 

The WPO is the driver and aims HP through Minnesota not Washington state.

I was warm Dec 25 thru Jan 10 , I saw it .

But now you have a -AO-NAO-EPO-WPO.

It will mute that ridge 

Warm ups are always lurking , but Jan could end up colder than what most think.

 

The only daily cold departures in December were 9..10...11...15...16...17...19...20. Models were about 5-10 degrees too cold with the Arctic shot

and were too cold with the warm days since then.

[PB GFI]

The coldest anomalies will clearly extend from western Canada down into upper mid west and Rockies .

But the  BN anomalies should extend all the way to the EC north of the Mason Dixon line .

That's a low height ridge and the -PNA will eject energy underneath all the higher heights in the higher latitudes. 

We may be very close to the Barroclinic zone and I think its just S of us at times this Jan.

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The only daily cold departures in December were 9..10...11...15...16...17...19...20. Models were about 5-10 degrees too cold with the Arctic shot

and were too cold with the warm days since then.

 

There were 2 N days , a few days of + a couple .

We had one plus 14 with a cutter , so it shaved the average .

Dec 5 thru 20 was - 3 at KNYC , and we that with a +AO.

That changes ..

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There were 2 N days , a few days of + a couple .

We had one plus 14 with a cutter , so it shaved the average .

Dec 5 thru 20 was - 3 at KNYC , and we that with a +AO.

That changes ..

 

The near record +AO spike was the big disappointment in December. Our only 2 solid -AO's with a La Nina in December since 2000

were 2000 and 2010. Both years featured a record snowfall event near the end of the month.