psv88 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 46 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Scranton taken at the AVP airport always runs warmer than areas close by. This doesn't affect average temps...which are taken from 1981-2010 average. Unless the area by the airport has developed significantly since 1981, the fact that the station "runs warmer" has no bearing on the temperature anomaly for that particular site, or even surrounding areas for that matter. It's not as if a station which always runs warmer will also have a greater tendency to run a positive temperature anomaly compared to its own long term average, which may in fact be warmer than outlying areas. But these outlying areas have a lower average temperature regardless, so running cooler than the AVP site doesnt mean they also wont be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: This doesn't affect average temps...which are taken from 1981-2010 average. Unless the area by the airport has developed significantly since 1981, the fact that the station "runs warmer" has no bearing on the temperature anomaly for that particular site, or even surrounding areas for that matter. It's not as if a station which always runs warmer will also have a greater tendency to run a positive temperature anomaly compared to its own long term average, which may in fact be warmer than outlying areas. But these outlying areas have a lower average temperature regardless, so running cooler than the AVP site doesnt mean they also wont be above normal. This. And you cant use that airport's averages and then if you live in a colder area, say that you are -5, if that airport is -1, for example. Unless you have 30 year stats at your own house, then you have to use an official station's #s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Add Poughkeepsie at -1.8 and Scranton at -0.7. By the end of the month they will all be near or above normal IMO. NYC still has a good shot at making it 18 consecutive months above normal, a record breaking streak I am hoping soon comes to an end with a Feb 2015, at least for cold, like vengeance. Yeah, textbook December La Nina pattern with a SE ridge and coldest departures focused along the Northern Tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 57 minutes ago, psv88 said: Huh? He included Newark, Trenton, NYC and Bridgeport. How is that a "Long Island" view? I didn't say solely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 52 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I didn't say solely. It would be nice if the NWS/NCDC had the updated departures for some of those other sites in interior NNJ and SE NY. The only available sites for official daily updating departures in SE NY/NNJ/ SW CT...NYC...LGA...JFK...ISP...BDR..EWR..POU..TTN Smaller sites like Montgomery only seem to update the monthly departure when the month is finished in the Now Data section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if the NWS/NCDC had the departures for some of those other sites in interior NNJ and SE NY. The only available sites for official monthly updating departures in SE NY/NNJ/ SW CT...NYC...LGA...JFK...ISP...BDR..EWR..POU..TTN https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html I've been saying the same thing for years. It's frustrating having so little data "way up here". That's one of the reasons I keep detrailed records as best I can. I'm sure you know I meant no disrespect to you at all with my post. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I've been saying the same thing for years. It's frustrating having so little data "way up here". That's one of the reasons I keep detrailed records as best I can. I'm sure you know I meant no disrespect to you at all with my post. Keep up the good work. Smaller sites like Montgomery only seem to update the monthly departure when the month is over instead of a daily updated running departure. They have those sites further down in the NOW data. But the daily data only goes back to 1998 so you can't get a complete 30 year departure. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Smaller sites like Montgomery only seem to update the monthly departure when the month is over instead of a daily updated running departure. They have those sites further down in the NOW data. Looks like they went +3.3 for November. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx +3.6 IMBY, and I'm real close to MGJ, so I'm close to what you found, again working with the records that I could find and are now collecting myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: +3.6 IMBY, and I'm real close to MGJ, so I'm close to what you found, again working with the records that I could find and are now collecting myself. The records only go back to 1998 so it's not a official 30 year mean according to what it says in the climate section. Period of Record: Max Temperature : 1998-01-01 to 2016-12-22 Min Temperature : 1998-01-01 to 2016-12-22 Precipitation : 1998-04-01 to 2016-12-22 Snow Depth : 1998-04-04 to 2000-08-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The records only go back to 1998 so it's not a official 30 year mean according to what it says in the climate section. Yeah, so I have that and old COOP records from Walden which is pretty close to me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 models are liking the New Year's Day period for a possible nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Euros a lot more amped than most guidance with Thursday clipper system, 3-6" area wide NE gets crushed from western CT eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 6 hours ago, ag3 said: This. And you cant use that airport's averages and then if you live in a colder area, say that you are -5, if that airport is -1, for example. Unless you have 30 year stats at your own house, then you have to use an official station's #s. Correct. When people say oh look at NYC they didn't get as cold because of UHI. Then they proceed to use that as the reason why months are so warm. Meanwhile that is absolutely wrong. The UHI is BAKED INTO the averages. There is a reason why remote areas are always in line with cities in the region when it comes to departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 December 1959 was a top analog and averaged 38.4 in Central Park...This December has a chance to end up averaging close to that number...snowfall and precipitation is lighter than 59... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Sleet falling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 33.6 light snow and sleet. With the last two days of temperatures 8 degrees above normal, LGA and JFK are now above normal for the month. Central Park still -1.2 for the month. Looking ahead with normal highs now in the 35-40 range area wide and normal lows from the teens in N sections to high 20's on the UHI I would say NYC's 17 month streak of above normal temperatures will hit 18 months. It's still a much better December than last year but so are most Novembers. Merry Christmas one and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Looks like all rain falling here, temp 37. The temperature has been slowly falling over the last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2016 Author Share Posted December 24, 2016 10 hours ago, uncle W said: December 1959 was a top analog and averaged 38.4 in Central Park...This December has a chance to end up averaging close to that number...snowfall and precipitation is lighter than 59... We are right in the middle of the pack for December snowfall during a La Nina and a +AO since 1980. +AO La Nina Decembers since 1980 in NYC 2016...3.2 2011...0 2008...6.0 2007..2.9 1999...T 1998...2.0 1988..0.3 1984..5.5 1983.1.6 -AO 2010...20.1 2005...9.7 2000...13.4 1995...11.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are right in the middle of the pack for December snowfall during a La Nina and a +AO since 1980. +AO La Nina Decembers since 1980 in NYC 2016...3.2 2011...0 2008...6.0 2007..2.9 1999...T 1998...2.0 1988..0.3 1984..5.5 1983.1.6 -AO 2010...20.1 2005...9.7 2000...13.4 1995...11.5 Always so solid with the stats Chris. Thanks as always!! Those +AO La Niña years are mehhh city when it comes to snowfall. Hoping we can defy climo a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2016 Author Share Posted December 24, 2016 19 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Always so solid with the stats Chris. Thanks as always!! Those +AO La Niña years are mehhh city when it comes to snowfall. Hoping we can defy climo a bit! It all comes down to how much help we get from the EPO/NAO/AO during JFM. The only 3 years out of the bunch to reach over 20 inches on the season in NYC were 08-09...84-85...83-84. Those years were all able to put together favorable blocking patterns in the EPO/AO/NAO regions JFM. All the other seasons finished with under 20 inches in NYC. Favorable snowfall pattern JFM 08-09...27.6 84-85...24.1 83-84...25.4 Unfavorable JFM 11-12...7.4 07-08...11.9 99-00...16.3 98-99...12.7 88-89...8.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 The cold is coming back a full 10 days faster than I thought . It will hang around through mid month . The initial shot begins in 5 days and probably evolves into coast to coast cold between days 10 thru 20. Look for both the EPO and NAO to go neg by day 8 and the 1st 2 weeks in Jan should advertise BN temps and snow on the EC . Happy Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Happy Holidays to you as well. Which model are you getting cold lasting at least mid month?. Not liking the NAO forecast on here trying to say it rebounds to positive again at the end. According the latest indices 00 UTC for December 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 4 minutes ago, leo1000 said: Happy Holidays to you as well. Which model are you getting cold lasting at least mid month?. Not liking the NAO forecast on here trying to say it rebounds to positive again at the end. Its from October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Its from October Sorry I realize that I just edited it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 The trough is in the east day 5 thru 9 , that ridge is beaten down 3 days later . Look at the 850 anomalies day 13 14 15 on the EPS. Matches the GEFS at 2 meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: More Arctic cold for Montana day 10. We just need some help from the EPO/NAO/AO in getting the cold to come east beyond that. Yeh , I am.buying the EPS EPO and NAO. When you check the EPS day 6 thru 10 2 M anomalies you can see the departures. BN in the N/E. That ridge thats there in the SE day 10 thru 12 will get beaten down with those 2 features . Thats why I think that ridge is transient and what follows is probably coast to coast cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: The current D11-15 GEFS/EPS blender freebie on twitter does get much of the US colder with still a hint of the SE ridge holding on. Thats a 5 day mean . Day 7 thru 10 are BN . And then it comes east 13 14 15 . Then the 0z EPS are N on day 13 BN country wide day 14 and 15 . Cant use a mean to see the evolution. Thats a snaposhot . Its a come and go ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: We'll see if we can get some improvement in later runs over the next week. But the ensembles are going for a continuation of the same La Nina theme to start January. Theres no question the next 5 days are a blowtorch , but the Euro brings the first cold shot thru on day 6 and 7 ( there's snow with that in the HV ) and another cold shot again 9 and 10 . I dont mind that SE ridge , its a low height ridge and it is going to have to fight HP coming thru the upper midwest after day 12 from that NEG EPO as well as a NEG NAO. That helps mute it . 2 things could happen , it allows for barroclunicity to our S while low level cold air pushes into it and I think that gives us a chance. I cant tell if the snow will be a result of WAA or actual upward divergence but the hope is that its Jan and we should drain the cold all the way to the coast with that NEG EPO. The first shot is a warning shot , I think its more sustained after the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: We'll see if we can get some improvement in later runs over the next week. But the ensembles are going for a continuation of the same La Nina theme to start January. I expect any positive pna or negative NAO to be transient features... If we get lucky with a well timed S/W we may cash in but overall Jan looks classic La Nina pattern with a strong temp gradient and the cold focused over Montana and intermountain west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 The cold should be strongest over the Intermountain West initially, but should drain to the East Coast in the Jan 5-10 timeframe. It's a pretty nice pattern with a big -EPO and a -NAO ridge trying to develop in Southern Greenland. Inland, elevated areas should see snow Thurs-Sat AM with the initial arctic front. Should see one more cutter around New Year's Day, then more sustained cold. Looks like the Dec 10-20 BN pattern with more help from the NAO and much better climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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