MJO812 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where is that chap that incessantly posts about the CFS weeky progs and how they are always warm and torchy and rarely wrong? Guess he is hiding now that they are MUCH colder for January with today's run? Cfs also cold for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Very amplified La Nina effect so far this month. Great Falls, Montana......-15.0 Miami, Florida...............+6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cfs also cold for February And March. Garbage in. Garbage out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where is that chap that incessantly posts about the CFS weeky progs and how they are always warm and torchy and rarely wrong? Guess he is hiding now that they are MUCH colder for January with today's run? At your service. We still have to wait till Jan. 20 for continuous cold. The key to your statement is 'today's run'. I want to see this output for a week straight. We are talking about breaking a 22 month long streak on pretty flimsy evidence. The baseball coach said 'take a strike' and so I'll let January come in below normal before I call any month BN ahead of time. It will have to be a heck of a final 10 day close to the month. We could be +3 to +6 by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 The CFS monthly is a classic repeater model that repeats the first week forecast for a month. It works great when the first week pattern of the month locks in for 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: At your service. We still have to wait till Jan. 20 for continuous cold. The key to your statement is 'today's run'. I want to see this output for a week straight. We are talking about breaking a 22 month long streak on pretty flimsy evidence. The baseball coach said 'take a strike' and so I'll let January come in below normal before I call any month BN ahead of time. It will have to be a heck of a final 10 day close to the month. We could be +3 to +6 by the 20th. You can't be serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Very amplified La Nina effect so far this month. Great Falls, Montana......-15.0 Miami, Florida...............+6.1 Montana has seen some incredibly cold temps this season, especially in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, JerseyWx said: Montana has seen some incredibly cold temps this season, especially in the Rockies. This may be the greatest December cold Montana to warmer South Florida spread since 1983 which was also a La Nina. December 1983....Great Falls, Montana....-21.7 monthly temperature departure to +1.3 Miami, Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Very amplified La Nina effect so far this month. Great Falls, Montana......-15.0 Miami, Florida...............+6.1 Classic La Niña with trough in the west and se ridge in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t This is as of Dec. 15. Looks like what is/has been going on so far. By spring, nowhere in the country is likely to below normal for any 3 month period according to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may be the greatest December cold Montana to warmer South Florida spread since 1983 which was also a La Nina. December 1983....Great Falls, Montana....-21.7 monthly temperature departure to +1.3 Miami, Florida. Very interesting pattern. Certainly made me think twice about eventually heading to Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 LOL, those Euro weeklies are abominable. It's hard to imagine those verifying. We'd probably be warmer than January February 1990, 2002, and 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 LMAO, in January 2002 we got into the mid 80s down in VA (but at around 1600', so still impressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 +7.5 departure yesterday. Just as bad departure coming today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 27 minutes ago, Morris said: +7.5 departure yesterday. Just as bad departure coming today. Several local stations like JFK, LGA, and BDR are already back to normal on the month. NYC...-1.6 LGA...-0.2 JFK...-0.2 ISP...-0.9 BDR...+0.2 EWR..-1.2 TTN...-1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 12 hours ago, Allsnow said: Classic La Niña with trough in the west and se ridge in the east Yeah, the one common denominator in the EPS and JMA weeklies that just came out is the classic La Nina SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 24 currently. Colder than yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the one common denominator in the EPS and JMA weeklies that just came out is the classic La Nina SE ridge. The 5 day trough coming 30th thru the 4th was missed by all of the guidance from 10 days ago Will hold off looking post Jan 5 until I see what the EP and NA look like The higher heights there typically mute the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The 5 day trough coming 30th thru the 4th was missed by all of the guidance from 10 days ago Will hold off looking post Jan 5 until I see what the EP and NA look like The higher heights there typically mute the SE ridge. Paul, do you still think an eastern trough comes back around the 10th? Where are you for Jan overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The 5 day trough coming 30th thru the 4th was missed by all of the guidance from 10 days ago Will hold off looking post Jan 5 until I see what the EP and NA look like The higher heights there typically mute the SE ridge. I was just stating what the latest batch of extended guidance was showing. But I generally don't like to go past the 6-10 means for more accurate forecasts. The latest batch of GEFS and EPS 6-10 are showing a strong ridge developing south of Greenland and Alaska. We would need both those ridges to poke north over Greenland And Alaska to have a shot at flattening the SE ridge longer than a few days behind the cold front. If those ridges set up south, then the SE ridge will just pop right back up during the first week of January as troughs dive into the Western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Several local stations like JFK, LGA, and BDR are already back to normal on the month. NYC...-1.6 LGA...-0.2 JFK...-0.2 ISP...-0.9 BDR...+0.2 EWR..-1.2 TTN...-1.1 I think to give a better regional picture rather than just along the immediate coast you should add DXR, SWF and MGJ. These aren't really that far inland but the difference is significant. Even HPN is colder than BDR and it's nearly on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 15 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think to give a better regional picture rather than just along the immediate coast you should add DXR, SWF and MGJ. These aren't really that far inland but the difference is significant. Even HPN is colder than BDR and it's nearly on the water. 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Several local stations like JFK, LGA, and BDR are already back to normal on the month. NYC...-1.6 LGA...-0.2 JFK...-0.2 ISP...-0.9 BDR...+0.2 EWR..-1.2 TTN...-1.1 Add Poughkeepsie at -1.8 and Scranton at -0.7. By the end of the month they will all be near or above normal IMO. NYC still has a good shot at making it 18 consecutive months above normal, a record breaking streak I am hoping soon comes to an end with a Feb 2015, at least for cold, like vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Several local stations like JFK, LGA, and BDR are already back to normal on the month. NYC...-1.6 LGA...-0.2 JFK...-0.2 ISP...-0.9 BDR...+0.2 EWR..-1.2 TTN...-1.1 the cold shot on 12/29-31 give or take will likely determine whether anyone can finish the month with a negative departure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 57 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Paul, do you still think an eastern trough comes back around the 10th? Where are you for Jan overall? Theres a ridge in the means between the 23rd and 28th The coming trough looks to be about a 4 or 5 days thats really a 2 part trough . Then the ridge is forecast on the EPS from the 5th thru 10th. Its poss. But I think the coming cold mid month is colder than the Dec 5th thru 15th period relative to averages . I am just uncomfortable seeing higher heights on both sides of the continent buldging towards the pole while forecasting a ridge I agree with Chris and I am going to stay inside the 6 ro 10 for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 36 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think to give a better regional picture rather than just along the immediate coast you should add DXR, SWF and MGJ. These aren't really that far inland but the difference is significant. Even HPN is colder than BDR and it's nearly on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 52 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think to give a better regional picture rather than just along the immediate coast you should add DXR, SWF and MGJ. These aren't really that far inland but the difference is significant. Even HPN is colder than BDR and it's nearly on the water. I didn't think he was going for a regional picture, more of a Long Island view which is how many of his fine posts can be interpreted IMO. Either way, always good stuff from Bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 51 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Add Poughkeepsie at -1.8 and Scranton at -0.7. By the end of the month they will all be near or above normal IMO. NYC still has a good shot at making it 18 consecutive months above normal, a record breaking streak I am hoping soon comes to an end with a Feb 2015, at least for cold, like vengeance. Scranton taken at the AVP airport always runs warmer than areas close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 55 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I didn't think he was going for a regional picture, more of a Long Island view which is how many of his fine posts can be interpreted IMO. Either way, always good stuff from Bluewave. Huh? He included Newark, Trenton, NYC and Bridgeport. How is that a "Long Island" view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 33 in FRG this morning, and 25 in ISP and MBY. Pretty big spread for out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 40 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Scranton taken at the AVP airport always runs warmer than areas close by. So do the NYC stations like LGA. Suburbs of NYC in the Bronx and NE Queens run colder then the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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