bluewave Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) rocketed to +3.879. That brings the December average to +0.953. Typically, such a positive AO suggests a mild first half of January. Since 1950, there have been nine years during which the AO peaked at +3.500 or above in the December 20-31 period. Only two of those cases featured a colder-than-normal January 1-15. This does not necessarily mean that "winter is over." In two thirds of the cases, combined January-February-March snowfall came to 15" or more in New York City (Mean: 17.8"; Median: 16.4"). In one-third of the cases, it exceeded 20". Only a single case saw less than 10" snowfall during that timeframe. More details are below: Don, it's noteworthy how different the pattern was over the Arctic and Eurasia this October and November compared to the other years with the December near record +AO readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's noteworthy how different the pattern was over the Arctic and Eurasia this October and November compared to the other years with the December near record +AO readings. I agree. Perhaps the Arctic sea ice is one variable that contributed to the outcome this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Most of the cold departures east of the Great Lakes will be erased the next 10 days. I agree. Seems like that's another trend in this long time warm pattern we've been in. Cold departures get erased by the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Last two day splits here of 29/21 and 32/15.... Departure for month of -2.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Nice -10 departure today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that NYC will only need to go about (+4) 12/21 to 12/31 to break even. Most other stations are warmer so they will need less. December temperature departures through the 19th. NYC...-1.7 LGA...-0.4 JFK...-0.2 ISP...-0.9 BDR..+0.3 EWR...-1.1 NYC is -2.2 after today. The last 11 days will need to average +6.5 to end up average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Most of the cold departures east of the Great Lakes will be erased the next 10 days. Dude look at that blob of crazy + anomalies over Hudson Bay - bye bye sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: NYC is -2.2 after today. The last 11 days will need to average +6.5 to end up average. I think you mean +4.4. .ie (-2.2)(20)/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 16 minutes ago, CIK62 said: I think you mean +4.4. .ie (-2.2)(20)/11 No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, Morris said: No. Please explain. We have a negative surplus of 44 degrees and have 11 days to get rid of it. 44/11 +4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Please explain. We have a negative surplus of 44 degrees and have 11 days to get rid of it. 44/11 +4.4 Oh, you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Went through the entire 18z GFS. No torch whatsoever. 3 warm days out of 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Still very new here, well posting wise, have been peeping this forum for a little over a year now (aspiring meteorologist), but does 12z Dec 24th (looking at the GFS) bring any hope to us (I am CNJ ish)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, Morris said: Went through the entire 18z GFS. No torch whatsoever. 3 warm days out of 15. It sure looked decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, TheJMan said: Still very new here, well posting wise, have been peeping this forum for a little over a year now (aspiring meteorologist), but does 12z Dec 24th (looking at the GFS) bring any hope to us (I am CNJ ish)? Doubtful take it for it is, we'll have plenty of chances for snow this winter just not on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, TheJMan said: Still very new here, well posting wise, have been peeping this forum for a little over a year now (aspiring meteorologist), but does 12z Dec 24th (looking at the GFS) bring any hope to us (I am CNJ ish)? No not really it looks dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Doubtful take it for it is, we'll have plenty of chances for snow this winter just not on Christmas Eve. Yeah, family will be up here from Texas for a week at the end of dec, was hoping to show them some real snow lol, optimism will continue though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, TheJMan said: Still very new here, well posting wise, have been peeping this forum for a little over a year now (aspiring meteorologist), but does 12z Dec 24th (looking at the GFS) bring any hope to us (I am CNJ ish)? Welcome I think areas to the north of NYC have a chance of some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Welcome I think areas to the north of NYC have a chance of some snow. Thats cool, still self learning how this tracking goes, and after looking at everybodies posts from over time, and finding tropical tidbits I am still disecting the ins and out of prediction. I saw the potential there, but being so far away, and the time gap from 12z to 18z i figured something would develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 30 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It sure looked decent Models have been gradually backing off the extent of the warm pattern. Initially, the ridge to our north is so strong it creates a confluent high pressure in Quebec. That limits the northward progression of the warmth Dec 25-26. Add to that the clipper on 12/22, which makes for a cold Thursday night and Friday. Models are trending towards a deeper trough which means 20s Friday AM. In the longer range, the GFS is faster in bringing the trough back to the East. We know the PV is going to stay in North America, so any troughing could bring extreme cold as the 18z run shows in the clown range. Most forecasters think the trough is back by 1/10, but the question is whether it is sooner than that. It will be hard to finish December above normal with the cold Friday and muted warm-up. The cutter ends up so far west that it includes and the warmth is pinched off before the Arctic high in SE Canada can depart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Please explain. We have a negative surplus of 44 degrees and have 11 days to get rid of it. 44/11 +4.4 44/11=4.0, not 4.4, so both of you are incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: Dude look at that blob of crazy + anomalies over Hudson Bay - bye bye sea ice. Nah, that's actually heat released from the ice freezing. Notice how much warmer 2m temperatures are over the part of the Bay that hasn't finished freezing yet, compared to both the land nearby in Quebec/Ontario and the already frozen northwest part of Hudson Bay. 850s are like -20C to -25C over Hudson Bay the next week. That's why it's freezing, causing tremendous amounts of heat to be released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 hours ago, nzucker said: Models have been gradually backing off the extent of the warm pattern. Initially, the ridge to our north is so strong it creates a confluent high pressure in Quebec. That limits the northward progression of the warmth Dec 25-26. Add to that the clipper on 12/22, which makes for a cold Thursday night and Friday. Models are trending towards a deeper trough which means 20s Friday AM. In the longer range, the GFS is faster in bringing the trough back to the East. We know the PV is going to stay in North America, so any troughing could bring extreme cold as the 18z run shows in the clown range. Most forecasters think the trough is back by 1/10, but the question is whether it is sooner than that. It will be hard to finish December above normal with the cold Friday and muted warm-up. The cutter ends up so far west that it includes and the warmth is pinched off before the Arctic high in SE Canada can depart. I don't know if I'd call Friday cold. We're expecting highs in the mid 40s, which is slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 So we now have Sunday-Wednesday added another 4 days with a minimum below freezing. Are we up to 10 days now? Zero last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Current temp is down to 26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Newark hit 24 this morning. Take off another predicted AN day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 using smoothed numbers is like using apples and oranges...The 1981-2010 December average temperature is 37.9...NOAA has 37.5...-0.4 lower than the actual number...NYC is averaging 37.0 as of yesterday...That could rise a bit this week.....if it does torch next week then it could go above 38.0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Today's preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure is +4.660. That broke the daily record of +3.837 from last year. Last December saw the AO peak on 12/22 at +4.503. Overall, this is the highest AO figure since March 9, 2015 when the Arctic Oscillation reached +4.952. For purposes of comparison, the record low figure for this date was -5.821 in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure is +4.660. That broke the daily record of +3.837 from last year. Last December saw the AO peak on 12/22 at +4.503. Overall, this is the highest AO figure since March 9, 2015 when the Arctic Oscillation reached +4.952. For purposes of comparison, the record low figure for this date was -5.821 in 2009. Don, which site do you use to get the preliminary numerical daily updates on the AO? I see the bar graph updating in real time but not numerical output. This site updates after the month is over. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don, which site do you use to get the preliminary numerical daily updates on the AO? I see the bar graph updating in real time but not numerical output. This site updates after the month is over. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Bluewave, They're posted here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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