dmillz25 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Down to 20 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 hours ago, pazzo83 said: Just in time, right? Unreal. At least it won't be like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Really cold in outlying areas. -2 in Monticello. Coldest morning of the season away from the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 -4 for a low last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 20 in the park. 18 in Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 9 for me. First single digit since last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 13.8 for the morning low in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has been all over this pattern change since the first week of December. It's just that some didn't believe the modeling would be correct. It's unusual to see such a dramatic EPO/AO shift around the 20th of December. So people looking at the models didn't think that the pattern could flip so fast. I can't find any other examples of this type of pattern change on the Atlantic and Pacific sides at the same time right near the winter solstice. One can argue the last 10 days or so was simply a break in the torch pattern we've been in for close to 2 years....let's see if the cold can return or we end up tracking day 10 cold and snow for the next 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 16 degrees. Don't know when we will be this cold again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 16 degrees. Don't know when we will be this cold again lol. We still have the whole winter to go through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 When I left Orlando at around 5:30 last night, it was 86 degrees. Landed last night at Westchester two hours later it was 21 degrees. Talk about a shock to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 00z Euro and GFS continue with a pattern dominated by the +EPO/+AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Light at the tunnel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Light at the tunnel? That light is probably an oncoming train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Last few Gfs runs show a 1040+ HP centered over Quebec on Sunday. That should keep our temps colder for X-mas if it were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 47 minutes ago, 6zNam said: Last few Gfs runs show a 1040+ HP centered over Quebec on Sunday. That should keep our temps colder for X-mas if it were to verify 12z GFS shows the same thing a long with the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12z GFS shows the same thing a long with the CMC 42/31 on Sunday. Just a hair above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Thank God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1° for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, snywx said: 1° for a low here Looks like POU got down to 3. So the no December below 0 streak continues since the last one on 12/23/08 at -2 degrees. The last December -10 or lower at POU looks like 1989. That goes with the last single digits in December for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: this warmup and pattern are being overplayed. No it's not a good snow pattern for awhile but it's damn cold this week and Christmas weekend looks pretty seasonal. With that high and shallow mean trough in SE Canada it won't be any torch at all the next week aside from the chance of a warm push ahead of anything that cuts. And behind anything that cuts is always the chance of a follow up system caught in shorter long wave that could do a little dirty work. Beyond 10 days who knows, it does appear pattern could get colder and stormier after the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS has been all over this pattern change since the first week of December. It's just that some didn't believe the modeling would be correct. It's unusual to see such a dramatic EPO/AO shift around the 20th of December. So people looking at the models didn't think that the pattern could flip so fast. I can't find any other examples of this type of pattern change on the Atlantic and Pacific sides at the same time right near the winter solstice. 1989 is pretty close. It may have been 7-10 days later but not far off. 1993 also did a major reversal at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, 6zNam said: Last few Gfs runs show a 1040+ HP centered over Quebec on Sunday. That should keep our temps colder for X-mas if it were to verify The one noticeable thing this year so far has been big highs coming across that area. Some have mentioned how this looks or feels like an 80s winter for the coast. The one thing we often seemed to have in the 1980s, even the lousier winters was more frequent stronger and colder Arctic highs in Quebec or northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the 1989 pattern change happened right around the start of January rather than the solstice. The 1993 reversal was in the opposite direction and was the last NYC 10 degree reading during December on 12/27/93. That was the early signal of the the historic January 1994 Arctic outbreak. It was also much longer lasting and colder. It started right around the time of the thanksgiving storm and lasted through most of December. Unfortunately we had little to show for it as most of the predicted snow events that month busted. I do remember the flip happening right around the 30th and never really going back to cold for any extended periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It was also much longer lasting and colder. It started right around the time of the thanksgiving storm and lasted through most of December. Unfortunately we had little to show for it as most of the predicted snow events that month busted. I do remember the flip happening right around the 30th and never really going back to cold for any extended periods Wow I am getting old as I remember that time very well. Thanksgiving morning snow around 5" and then a very cold December. Then from News Years Day onward was complete flip to non winter. When was the storm in December of 1989 with winter storm warnings only to be heavy rain with thunder and lighting? The 1993-1994 winter had so many events of snow, snow to ice, snow to rain, rain to snow. A good chunk of them happened on Wednesdays for some odd reason. No weekend rule that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Wow I am getting old as I remember that time very well. Thanksgiving morning snow around 5" and then a very cold December. Then from News Years Day onward was complete flip to non winter. When was the storm in December of 1989 with winter storm warnings only to be heavy rain with thunder and lighting? The 1993-1994 winter had so many events and a good chunk of them landed on Wednesdays for some odd reason.12/15/89. Awful night. Temp went from 28 to 40 and snowed for like 5 minutes before turning to heavy rain at the coast. This was before we had twc or anything so I just remember being in disbelief and having no way of knowing what happened and hoping it would change back to snowSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Morris said: Thank God Way cooler in the West this year. Check out the difference in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 12/15/89. Awful night. Temp went from 28 to 40 and snowed for like 5 minutes before turning to heavy rain at the coast. This was before we had twc or anything so I just remember being in disbelief and having no way of knowing what happened and hoping it would change back to snow Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk There was also another busted event a few days prior although that one they basically caught 48 hours out that it wouldn't happen. DCA and BWI I think had 6-12 inches. It ended up way south than the 60-96 hour projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There was also another busted event a few days prior although that one they basically caught 48 hours out that it wouldn't happen. DCA and BWI I think had 6-12 inches. It ended up way south than the 60-96 hour projections There was another one earlier in the month where it snowed most of the day but temps were too warm and didn't accumulate much even though 3-6 was forecast. Then behind the 15th storm it turned bitterly cold with daily snow showers but overall the month produced very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Today, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) rocketed to +3.879. That brings the December average to +0.953. Typically, such a positive AO suggests a mild first half of January. Since 1950, there have been nine years during which the AO peaked at +3.500 or above in the December 20-31 period. Only two of those cases featured a colder-than-normal January 1-15. This does not necessarily mean that "winter is over." In two thirds of the cases, combined January-February-March snowfall came to 15" or more in New York City (Mean: 17.8"; Median: 16.4"). In one-third of the cases, it exceeded 20". Only a single case saw less than 10" snowfall during that timeframe. More details are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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