December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

With the indices the way are seems like the coast will have a rough time with snow, being a few above average is not good...the interior is a different story.

 

 

The torch that is coming will be from the MISS EAST . Everyone is AN Dec 25 - Jan 10  - And it`s not going to be by a few degrees . 

 

The ensembles look like this day 8 - 15 ( and prob beyond ) . 

 

 

The only chance we could snow in a pattern like this is if there was a shortening of the wavelengths and a vort rolls under a high and we snow / only to be gone in 2 days . ( But gun to my head , these all cut ) . 

 

The pattern on balance is AN by a lot / there is a lot of cold air out West and in Canada and we have snowed in bad pattern before .

But this is a bad pattern .

 

 

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

The torch that is coming will be from the MISS EAST . Everyone is AN Dec 25 - Jan 10  - And it`s not going to be by a few degrees . 

 

The ensembles look like this day 8 - 15 ( and prob beyond ) . 

 

 

The only chance we could snow in a pattern like this is if there was a shortening of the wavelengths and a vort rolls under a high and we snow / only to be gone in 2 days . ( But gun to my head , these all cut ) . 

 

The pattern on balance is AN by a lot / there is a lot of cold air out West and in Canada and we have snowed in bad pattern before .

But this is a bad pattern .

 

 

There isn't an obvious mechanism to me that suggests this pattern will not persist through the end of winter.  The balance of this winter may indeed be similar to last year, just without any chance of a big El Niño fueled monster storm.  Real 1980s look if you ask me.  

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

The models have not been too good lately and I would not trust them more than a few days out. Even 5 degrees or more above average will not hurt the interior, especially elevated areas. WE will still get some snow, maybe nothing significant and also some mixing, but coastal sections will be in for a very frustrating period.

 

 

When you say inland if you mean Nebraska then yeh . The mean storm track will head out of the panhandle up towards the U.P.  

The N/E is dead for 2 weeks . 

[PB GFI]

25 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

There isn't an obvious mechanism to me that suggests this pattern will not persist through the end of winter.  The balance of this winter may indeed be similar to last year, just without any chance of a big El Niño fueled monster storm.  Real 1980s look if you ask me.  

 

 

I think we may see a flip back by mid month . 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

My feelings also about the pattern. It may get better for coastal areas and south of 40 crowd, but I feel they at best will end up near average.

I've felt that way at times the last few years, but we keep getting these KU events even in terrible winters that end up swinging things above normal 

[nzucker]

44 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

There isn't an obvious mechanism to me that suggests this pattern will not persist through the end of winter.  The balance of this winter may indeed be similar to last year, just without any chance of a big El Niño fueled monster storm.  Real 1980s look if you ask me.  

The main driver of the pattern switch is the rapid cooling of the stratosphere and the development of colder SSTs in the North Pacific and ENSO Region 3.4/4. This brings us into a more La Niña-like regime with a -PNA and SE Ridge. 

I doubt the pattern lasts through the entire winter, however. The stratosphere usually warms and cools in cycles...we had a strong warming in late Oct/early Nov, then a dive to near record low temperatures in early Dec, so what follows would probably be a significant warming. We also have the fact that the La Niña is modeled to fade as the winter progresses, with ENSO reaching near neutral values by springtime. If the La Niña quickly dissipates, the pattern in the Pacific will resemble an El Niño with a more favorable Aleutian low and +PNA. I expect this to occur in late February or early March, setting up a cold and potentially snowy March as we have seen in many weak/moderate La Niña winters like 1967, 1984, 1996, 2008. 

I definitely think Dec 25-Jan 10 is a torch with little snowfall for coastal areas. However, DT and many other forecasters had a mean trough in the East during January, and I'd expect a pretty cold end to the month to make up for the mild start. I think our largest snowfall of the year will take place in one of two periods: Jan 10-30 or Feb 20-Mar 15.  Although I favor a warmer February, I also favor a colder March, so we should have some solid winter periods. It won't be an end-to-end winter like 95-96 or 02-03, but we will have chances. 

[PB GFI]

10 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I agree it is not good, perhaps mixed events at best till then.

 

I like the return to BN  in mid Jan . 

[WEATHERBUFF]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I've felt that way at times the last few years, but we keep getting these KU events even in terrible winters that end up swinging things above normal 

Even though many say it's an interior winter and I have heard that many times before, the KU events usually screw the interior and it only takes one like last year to make the winter for coastal areas. It seems like no matter what they come on schedule consistently lately!

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Even though many say it's an interior winter and I have heard that many times before, the KU events usually screw the interior and it only takes one like last year to make the winter for coastal areas. It seems like no matter what they come on schedule consistently lately!

There has been a noticeable swing the last 4-5 years now to the positive AO and NAO but also a swing to more backloaded winters as well.  It seems we went ages without a good March snow and we're getting more late November early December events.  It seems the March snows are back now.  Historically if you look at NYC's climo there seems to be some sort of see saw pattern on early December and March snows oscillating over 10 year periods 

[Allsnow]

Sucks to say but it's definitely snooze time for the next 3-4 weeks from sne to mid Atlantic. The EPS and gefs look horrible out to mid January. 

[uncle W]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been a noticeable swing the last 4-5 years now to the positive AO and NAO but also a swing to more backloaded winters as well.  It seems we went ages without a good March snow and we're getting more late November early December events.  It seems the March snows are back now.  Historically if you look at NYC's climo there seems to be some sort of see saw pattern on early December and March snows oscillating over 10 year periods 

analogs this year include 1960 and 1967...March could be interesting especially if the AO/NAO go negative again...some big snowstorms had at least two major indices going against it...1959-60 had two...

some snowstorms with at least two indices in the red...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-
15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-
15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina
15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino
10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino
13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+
11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino
11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina
20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino

10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral-

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, nzucker said:

Binghamton, NY already has 53" snowfall this season; they only need about 30" more to reach average. With the November 20th cold front and subsequent lake effect event, the Dec 15-16 arctic front/LES, and the Dec 17 SWFE followed by the 1040mb high last night, it's been a very active winter for much of the interior. It's quite unlikely that the interior will not reach average snowfall this season due to the strong start. Things might slow down for a while but it's only December 19th. I'd imagine the pattern flips back to cold around January 10th; the late winter could be snowy, too, as all models start to weaken the La Nina. That could shift us towards a more Niño-like Pacific with a -EPO/Aleutian Low pattern. 

I am discussing the coming pattern we are heading into now.  What's done is done, and the pattern the last month was a very good one for the interior northeast, especially upstate NY north.  But looking at the pattern coming, I think Weathersbuff is way too optimistic in thinking a significant portion of precip will be frozen.  I am not ignorant of climo in your area, I spent 3 years in Hazleton PA, went to Penn State,  and spent significant time in the poconos for many years in the winter.  The pattern coming, see below, is NOT good for anywhere in PA.  You can do better in a warm pattern as far north as you are, but were talking a pretty huge ridge in the east on the guidance here.  This is not a good look for the Poconos, where he is.  They can do ok in a mild pattern but this is more then that.  As for seasonal, of course given the fast start, you are in good shape to rebound later and still get to above average.  I would bet you do.  But don't count on it too soon, I remember in 2000 being in the Poconos and having 40" in January and thinking we were in great shape to hit our 55" average and then we got almost nothing the rest of the winter.  Patterns can flip, and I agree its likely we flip to something better at some point but its not a given.  My point was ONLY with regards to this coming pattern that is likely to last 2-4 weeks or so.  I highly doubt anyone in the east is going to do well with snowfall compared to their average during that time period.  y

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Poconos and northeast Pa will be ok, especially elevations over 1000 ft. There is I agree chances of mixed precipitation and snow to rain scenario. Some parts of northeast Pa average over 80 inches of snow a year, although last year it was less than 30 inches. We had over 25 inches of snow already while Binghamton has had close to 50 inches.while Philly had had an inch or less so far.

I am very familiar with the Poconos climo and this is a bad pattern for there.  They will not do well with snowfall compared to their average during this coming +AO/NAO/EPO pattern.  That is not a good look for them sorry.  Yes, they might get SOME snow but with those higher averages you speak of, getting a little snow in the next 3 weeks is just as bad as NYC getting none.  There will be lots of mix issues though, like mix between moderate and heavy rain.  90% of precip the next few weeks will be liquid in this pattern unless the models are wrong.  That is very possible, but pattern both GEFS and EPS are showing day 7 and beyond is not going to produce much snow in the Poconos if its accurate. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am very familiar with the Poconos climo and this is a bad pattern for there.  They will not do well with snowfall compared to their average during this coming +AO/NAO/EPO pattern.  That is not a good look for them sorry.  Yes, they might get SOME snow but with those higher averages you speak of, getting a little snow in the next 3 weeks is just as bad as NYC getting none.  There will be lots of mix issues though, like mix between moderate and heavy rain.  90% of precip the next few weeks will be liquid in this pattern unless the models are wrong.  That is very possible, but pattern both GEFS and EPS are showing day 7 and beyond is not going to produce much snow in the Poconos if its accurate. 

I agree with you that we may see only mixed events, also long range the models have not done so well hopefully they are wrong again.

[WEATHERBUFF]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am very familiar with the Poconos climo and this is a bad pattern for there.  They will not do well with snowfall compared to their average during this coming +AO/NAO/EPO pattern.  That is not a good look for them sorry.  Yes, they might get SOME snow but with those higher averages you speak of, getting a little snow in the next 3 weeks is just as bad as NYC getting none.  There will be lots of mix issues though, like mix between moderate and heavy rain.  90% of precip the next few weeks will be liquid in this pattern unless the models are wrong.  That is very possible, but pattern both GEFS and EPS are showing day 7 and beyond is not going to produce much snow in the Poconos if its accurate. 

Look at the averages of Montrose Pa and it says 82 inches per year ( if you look at weatherwarenhouse data and also NWS), I live a little north of Carbondale at about 1400 ft elevation so while the pattern is bad it is not as bad as further south, I hope you can understand that, it is not too difficult to understand what I am trying to say, I'm not saying it's good  but not as bad as other locations.... I am not expecting much out of this pattern, no expert on weather but it is unfortunately obvious no one will do well with this!. I would trust NJ Zucker he lives up this way and anyway everything depends on the accuracy of long range models which may or not be right. Hopefully for the ski resorts the models are wrong!

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I agree with you that we may see only mixed events, also long range the models have not done so well hopefully they are wrong again.

I think the guidance has done well with the larger pattern all in all.  Long range models will never nail details perfectly. The general idea was good.  A few runs teased us with a weak signal for nao help but there is a big difference between a few runs showing a weak day 15 signal and everything consistently showing a raging positive nao epo for a week straight. This is obvious has way more consensus within the ensembles and thus is a higher confidence look. We should never be too confident in a forecast but we can only use the evidence at hand and "maybe the models are wrong" is not really a solid foundation for an accurate forecast. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think the guidance has done well with the larger pattern all in all.  Long range models will never nail details perfectly. The general idea was good.  A few runs teased us with a weak signal for nao help but there is a big difference between a few runs showing a weak day 15 signal and everything consistently showing a raging positive nao epo for a week straight. This is obvious has way more consensus within the ensembles and thus is a higher confidence look. We should never be too confident in a forecast but we can only use the evidence at hand and "maybe the models are wrong" is not really a solid foundation for an accurate forecast. 

I just know after 7 days it is difficult let along 15 days........we'll probably be above average, how much I don't know.

[uncle W]

23 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Look at the averages of Montrose Pa and it says 82 inches per year ( if you look at weatherwarenhouse data and also NWS), I live a little north of Carbondale at about 1400 ft elevation so while the pattern is bad it is not as bad as further south, I hope you can understand that, it is not too difficult to understand what I am trying to say, I'm not saying it's good  but not as bad as other locations.... I am not expecting much out of this pattern, no expert on weather but it is unfortunately obvious no one will do well with this!. I would trust NJ Zucker he lives up this way and anyway everything depends on the accuracy of long range models which may or not be right. Hopefully for the ski resorts the models are wrong!

we have a house in Dingmans Ferry Pa 1240ft above sea level...Winter is in full force up there...There probably will be snow on the ground around the house this Christmas eve...there are a few inches left there now...

[doncat]

Hi temp here today exactly 30 degrees lower than yesterday, 59 and 29 today.

[Animal]

Mt Holly NWS forecasting a BLOW TORCH in January.

Longer term: What brought cold weather into the country throughout
the month so far has been due to a period of negative WPO and EPO
conditions in the Pacific. The AO and NAO remain strongly positive
and the WPO and EPO states have also flipped to positive. With these
teleconnections in place, the main feature of the winter a
persistent mid-level ridge over the Southeast will likely become
even stronger heading into January with well above normal
temperatures on average well into January. This is indicated in the
latest CPC outlooks for the likelihood of above normal temperatures
over the next several weeks.

[PB GFI]

51 minutes ago, Animal said:

Mt Holly NWS forecasting a BLOW TORCH in January.

Longer term: What brought cold weather into the country throughout
the month so far has been due to a period of negative WPO and EPO
conditions in the Pacific. The AO and NAO remain strongly positive
and the WPO and EPO states have also flipped to positive. With these
teleconnections in place, the main feature of the winter a
persistent mid-level ridge over the Southeast will likely become
even stronger heading into January with well above normal
temperatures on average well into January. This is indicated in the
latest CPC outlooks for the likelihood of above normal temperatures
over the next several weeks.

 

Agree.

[H2Otown_WX]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been a noticeable swing the last 4-5 years now to the positive AO and NAO but also a swing to more backloaded winters as well.  It seems we went ages without a good March snow and we're getting more late November early December events.  It seems the March snows are back now.  Historically if you look at NYC's climo there seems to be some sort of see saw pattern on early December and March snows oscillating over 10 year periods 

Is there some oscillating cycle of dud winters every five years or is it a coincidence? If this winter turns out to be a dud it will have gone through that cycle length four times in a row ('01-'02, '06-'07, '11-'12, '16-'17).

[NortheastPAWx]

So what are we thinking? 50s? 60s? That pattern would look like easy 100+ if it were Summer.  

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, Animal said:

Mt Holly NWS forecasting a BLOW TORCH in January.

Longer term: What brought cold weather into the country throughout
the month so far has been due to a period of negative WPO and EPO
conditions in the Pacific. The AO and NAO remain strongly positive
and the WPO and EPO states have also flipped to positive. With these
teleconnections in place, the main feature of the winter a
persistent mid-level ridge over the Southeast will likely become
even stronger heading into January with well above normal
temperatures on average well into January. This is indicated in the
latest CPC outlooks for the likelihood of above normal temperatures
over the next several weeks.

Looks like the warmth begins on Wednesday.  Should see 40° and higher temps for who knows how long.

[uncle W]

Main analogs 1960 and 1967 had a mild January but better February and March...1960 was mild in Feb. also...March 1960 had a blizzard early in the month...both years had snow on St. Patrick's Day...

[nzucker]

6 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Look at the averages of Montrose Pa and it says 82 inches per year ( if you look at weatherwarenhouse data and also NWS), I live a little north of Carbondale at about 1400 ft elevation so while the pattern is bad it is not as bad as further south, I hope you can understand that, it is not too difficult to understand what I am trying to say, I'm not saying it's good  but not as bad as other locations.... I am not expecting much out of this pattern, no expert on weather but it is unfortunately obvious no one will do well with this!. I would trust NJ Zucker he lives up this way and anyway everything depends on the accuracy of long range models which may or not be right. Hopefully for the ski resorts the models are wrong!

Carbondale, wow. We have a house in Lake Como PA at about 1600' elevation though I live and work in the Bronx. I might be going up there for New Year's, but I doubt there will be much snow. Might sneak in a few inches on the front end of the 12/26 overrunning, but even that is questionable. They're having a pretty good season so far in Wayne County, and it's not realistic to expect to go wire to wire at that latitude. We do average 70-75" seasonal snowfall and probably had close to 120" in 92-93 and 93-94.

[ForestHillWx]

15 currently. Low of 12 forecasted. Cold one for sure. 

[mattinpa]

It is true that just last week we were talking about a better pattern, so do not write anything in stone yet. It is a shame though that we are getting another mild Christmas.

[pazzo83]

42 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

It is true that just last week we were talking about a better pattern, so do not write anything in stone yet. It is a shame though that we are getting another mild Christmas.

Just in time, right?  Unreal.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 19 here.