snowman19 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: La nina looking like la nada right now. Btw the gefs look nice I disagree. Still a weak La Niña and a very favorable pattern for trades upcoming. That said, even if it were to go cool-neutral this winter, there is no difference between that or weak La Niña as far as the pattern is concerned. It's the same thing for the long wave pattern. Cool neutral would not change the effects that a weak Niña would have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: +2.1 is normal for the last 15 years or so, especially for december That is true, but last December's 50.8° temperature skews the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Both the euro and gfs have light snow for the area Monday. Be nice to get a stronger s/w as we are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Let's face it I'm whining worse than Jim Harbaugh, but I can't hold it in. This November will now make it 17 months in a row of above normal temperatures. The last month below normal in KNYC was June 2015 and that was a whooping 0.2 degrees below normal. This is really getting tough to take. Let's not also forget this is measured against the 30 year average from 1981-2010 which is the highest average temperature ever recorded. Very, very discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 The forcing mechanism for the poleward dateline ridging is present (e.g., retracted jet/low GWO, Rossby wave trains via -VP), and this should persist for at least a couple weeks. However, what will be the mechanism for -NAO initiation and subsequently maintenance? The most integral determinants of NAO modulation are not conducive for protracted blocking. The most favorable signal we have presently -- in addition to the Aleutian ridge forcing -- is the repressed stratospheric vortex condition. That being said, the default at this time of year is rapid polar night jet intensification due to the perpetual darkness and thermal gradients; in the absence of robust perturbation and wave driving, the vortex will strengthen (and strengthen it will do). Consequently, throughout the 2 week forecast period, we note that the ECMWF ensembles are generally suggestive of a near neutral NAM/NAO, possibly even slightly positive by week 2. My winter outlook idea was for the mid dec-early jan period offering windows, but we will need AO/NAO cooperation in order to achieve anything greater than light accumulations for the coast. For those who remember the ECMWF ensembles from several days ago -- I didn't save them, but the Dec 1-10 period now features predominately near to above normal heights along the East Coast. 60F will occur again in about a week. For those expecting a cold to very cold December, we will likely enter mid December with a positive departure for the East Coast stations. That usually doesn't bode well for a very cold December. I expected near normal, and I'm fine with that for now. The poleward ridge will effectuate some significant CONUS cooling which should bleed east in waves, but resistance will be robust in the East due to largely insufficient downstream geopotential height rises. I see quite a few posts noting that the pattern is improving. It is -- and this could be somewhat semantics/phraseology -- but the resultant pattern could be more painful, along the lines of Nina-esque Decembers in which most of the country is cold coupled with mostly unfavorably tracking cyclones. We can guarantee that Dec 1-10th is inland runner/cutter prone, and I would say if today's D10-15 ECMWF ensembles are reliable, that pattern could also produce an inland runner fairly easily. I still think we'll get snow (by we'll I mean the coast) in the second half of December, but the extent to which the pattern is snowy will be highly dependent upon the Arctic/Atlantic. Otherwise, it's an interior wintry pattern overall. I wouldn't expect anything more than maybe a very light event before the 15th at the coast. What do I want to see? I'd like to see renewed attacks on the stratospheric vortex, which I don't foresee right now, but that can change. At this time of year, you can't kick the vortex once and expect zonal reversal; you need incessant perturbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 3 hours ago, Morris said: Dude is a good follow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12 hours ago, uncle W said: most of the cold Decembers had a negative nao...Most of the warm Decembers had a positive nao...I didn't do the math yet but the exceptions are...Cold Decembers with a positive monthly nao are 1955 barely...1960 barely...1980...1983 barely...1983 had the most positive nao...The warm Decembers with a negative nao are...1953...1996...2001... the 15 most negative nao Decembers have an average temperature of 34.4 and 5.9" of snow...The fifteen most positive nao Decembers have an average temperature of 41.1 and 1.9" of snow...The biggest snowfall for the positive years is 5.0" in 2013...The biggest snowfall for the negative years is 20.0" in 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: Dude is a good follow, right? Dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Looks like Central Park will end up with about 3" from this two day event. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 00z euro again has light snow for the area Monday morning. Was actually a uptick on the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Monday Morning isnt terribly far away for multiple runs now Euro and GFS been showing some snow..am I missing something? Is discussion on this storm taking place in another thread??. I have heard discussion on a couple of weather forums that we maybe looking at something potentially significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Monday Morning isnt terribly far away for multiple runs now Euro and GFS been showing some snow..am I missing something? Is discussion on this storm taking place in another thread??. I have heard discussion on a couple of weather forums that we maybe looking at something potentially significant Eh not significant more like minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 20 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Monday Morning isnt terribly far away for multiple runs now Euro and GFS been showing some snow..am I missing something? Is discussion on this storm taking place in another thread??. I have heard discussion on a couple of weather forums that we maybe looking at something potentially significant Euro is < 1" for anyone not far NW of 84 and GFS nothing south of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro is < 1" for anyone not far NW of 84 and GFS nothing south of 84 The potential is there for something interesting for the interior on Tuesday. 12z GFS now pops a 998 @ hr132 just off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, snywx said: The potential is there for something interesting for the interior on Tuesday. 12z GFS now pops a 998 @ hr132 just off the Delmarva Was just gonna post this, some areas north of 84 stay mostly snow/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Was just gonna post this, some areas north of 84 stay mostly snow/mix Still early but starting to look interesting. Hr 129 & 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Gfs continues to cut up the northern stream disturbance for Sunday night and we are left with very little qpf. It's takes the mid week event as a swfe and areas north of NYC get some good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Euro will be delayed 2 hours today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 36 minutes ago, snywx said: The potential is there for something interesting for the interior on Tuesday. 12z GFS now pops a 998 @ hr132 just off the Delmarva 29 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Was just gonna post this, some areas north of 84 stay mostly snow/mix Yea, there's something to look at, what I like the most is multiple precip chances. It would be nice to continue denting the drought and work on turning that precip into frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Yea, there's something to look at, what I like the most is multiple precip chances. It would be nice to continue denting the drought and work on turning that precip into frozen. Agree. Eventually the worm will turn. I think the interior get a big winter. A good amount of redevelopers off the coast and swfe this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The bottom line is that warmer than normal Decembers have dominated the last 30 years independent of whether it's an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral year. NYC December temperature departures for the last 30 years: 2015...+13.1 2014...+3.0 2013...+1.0 2012...+4.0 2011...+6.0 2010...-4.5 2009...-1.4 2008...+0.8 2007...-0.3 2006...+6.3 2005...-2.0 2004...+1.1 2003...+0.3 2002...-1.3 2001...+7.5 2000...-5.5 1999...+3.4 1998...+6.6 1997...+1.7 1996...+4.7 1995...-4.3 1994...+5.6 1993...+0.7 1992...+1.7 1991...+3.4 1990...+6.4 1989...-10.3 1988...-0.3 1987...+3.3 1986...+2.8 That is about 1.5 above the so - called normal for the last 30 years! Thus it should be considered the new normal for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 A look back: December 2015: Mean temperature: 50.8° (previous warmest: 44.1°, 2001) Record high maximum temperatures: 5 Record high minimum temperatures: 7 Days with low temperatures of 40° or above: 23 (old record: 14, 1982) Days with low temperatures of 50° or above: 11 (old record: 5, 1982, 1998) Days with high temperatures of 50° or above: 24 (old record: 19, 1891) Days with high temperatures of 60° or above: 11 (old record: 8, 1998) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, nyblizz44 said: Monday Morning isnt terribly far away for multiple runs now Euro and GFS been showing some snow..am I missing something? Is discussion on this storm taking place in another thread??. I have heard discussion on a couple of weather forums that we maybe looking at something potentially significant I don't know who is saying it looks like a significant snow for NYC and the immediate suburbs but they are lying. The models have literally 0 snow for those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I don't think anyone said anything about "significant"... he said "some" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z ggem like the gfs shears Sunday night out. We don't get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 23 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: This is looking more and more like an interior winter with the La Nina and perhaps limited blocking. That's what they said about last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don't know who is saying it looks like a significant snow for NYC and the immediate suburbs but they are lying. The models have literally 0 snow for those areas No one said it but some snow showers are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: That's what they said about last winter... Usually we do much better than the coast with strong ninos. Hopefully that was an anomaly because climo will eventually be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The only 4 winters that the interior did better than the coast since 2000 were 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, and 2011-2012. They were all +EPO dominant winters. 2 La Ninas 1 El Nino 1 neutral I guess the less blocking there is it's better for the interior. All those years were still below average snowfall wise for northern Pa except 2007-2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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