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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The weeklies actually did a pretty good job from the the beginning of the month forecasts pegging the cold the next few days followed by the warm up to 

close out the month. Now the EPS weeklies along with the JMA weeklies show the coming pattern change persisting right into January. The warm

surge on Sunday will be the first step in the direction of a more +EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge milder pattern.

If that ends up being the case, if we go back to October and November's pattern we could see some crazy warmth

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

If that ends up being the case, if we go back to October and November's pattern we could see some crazy warmth

Unfortunately, when you get a dueling Alaska/ Greenland vortex pattern it can last longer than people on this board want to see.

But the general public is fine with it since it's easier to travel and heating bills are lower.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, when you get a dueling Alaska/ Greenland vortex pattern it can last longer than people on this board want to see.

But the general public is fine with it since it's easier to travel and heating bills are lower.

That part does make it easier.  With a family now, snow days and cancelllations are a pain in the butt.  (I'm still rooting for them, once a weenie always a weenie)

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17 minutes ago, Morris said:

The wind is making it brutal outside.

I don't understand how someone can work outdoors today.

Bad decision to leave the house without gloves and ear warmers. 
At least I inaugurated my coat.

I just brought out my winter coat a week ago...Been so warm it wasn't needed

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There is now strong consensus among the guidance that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach or exceed +3.000 in coming days. Often when the AO reaches +3.000 or above in the second half of December, the probability of a blocky January diminishes. There have been some exceptions. January 1952, 2005, and 2016 developed severe blocking.

https://s28.postimg.org/9ie5z9uel/AOJan12152016.jpg

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A sensible guess for Jan. made today is  for +6 during first 20 days of month.   Then to save us from yet another 'warmest ever' month, remainder of month is near normal---so +4 overall.   I expect just a few anomalous winter events to occur, like last year.  We can not even get BN for a 10 day period.

After 21 straight AN months, I will take a strike and not call for any below normal month till we have one and TCONNECTION motif changes. 

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