PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: That warm front is very strong and means business. The models are showing the boundary layer skyrocketing very quickly once it passes. Tremendous WAA. Like you said, temps may hit the 50's Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Almost certainly accompanied by heavy fog After 2 to 3 falls around the city and 4 to 6 N and W . That 50 reverses hard 6 hours later . Its gone again for 3 more days which falls inside the entire 12 day well BN prriod . 8th thru 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 hours ago, doncat said: Yeah the pattern shift from Dec 89 to Jan 90 was extreme...Mean temp here in Dec was 24.6 and in Jan 39.8 degrees, The coldest and warmest respective months on this stations record. What was your mean for Jan 1994 and Feb 2015? You didn't get below 24.6F? Ok I saw you had colder but what were the figures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, PB GFI said: After 2 to 3 falls around the city and 4 to 6 N and W . That 50 reverses hard 6 hours later . Its gone again for 3 more days which falls inside the entire 12 day well BN prriod . 8th thru 20th I think the Sunday/Monday period could be quite cold again with 850s approaching -15C with CAA behind the departing cutter. Would not be surprised to see many places struggle to break freezing Monday, esp NW suburbs with snowpack intact, and then more teens inland/low 20s in the City at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 hours ago, nzucker said: What was your mean for Jan 1994 and Feb 2015? You didn't get below 24.6F? Ok I saw you had colder but what were the figures? Jan 1994 had a mean temp of 24.3 and Feb 2015 was 21.8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 0z gfs and 0z Eps shows at least 2 inches for the NYC area before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: The SE Ridge just can't stay down for long before returning. The Atlantic side during Decembers since 2011 hasn't wanted to play ball. I had the 5 - 20 cold BN period from late Nov and I have been out with the 25 -10 to be AN , now I think the trough will be back in the east around the 10th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: February 2015 was the last time we were able to see an uninterrupted run of cold. All ourcool downs since then have been answered by warm ups a few days later. This month doesn't hasn't been any different. It looks like a back and forth between warm and cold through the solstice before we get back into an extended milder pattern for a while without much in the way of below normal temps. Cvs2 is a torch for February like most winter forecast in this sub forum. We might just have a couple of weeks in January to get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Cvs2 is a torch for February like most winter forecast in this sub forum. We might just have a couple of weeks in January to get something Assuming that's right....big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: February 2015 was the last time we were able to see an uninterrupted run of cold. All ourcool downs since then have been answered by warm ups a few days later. This month doesn't hasn't been any different. It looks like a back and forth between warm and cold through the solstice before we get back into an extended milder pattern for a while without much in the way of below normal temps. We might actually finish above normal despite the near record low heights Thursday to Saturday. It all depends on how strong the weaker cold shot is after the Saturday SWFE. If Monday and Tuesday deliver big negatives, then we can finish below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cvs2 is a torch for February like most winter forecast in this sub forum. We might just have a couple of weeks in January to get something Seasonal models aside, there is a very strong signal for a torch February and a much warmer than normal March as well. February being the real torch. Both months look to be +NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 11/29/2016 at 6:40 PM, CIK62 said: CFS says next 30 days will be in line with most of the previous 21 AN months we have experienced, just 8 days will be BN, ironically X-Mas day is a one-day holdout from the last 10 days of pizza oven heat. Dec. 20 itself is pegged at +4SD. As I mentioned two weeks ago, the cold around the 10-13 was shown retreating and slipping by to the north. Now if there were just some glasses you could wear to turn those red hues to blue.................................................... If you use the CFS you will die with the CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 20 minutes ago, PB GFI said: If you use the CFS you will die with the CFS CFS literally flips constantly on what's gonna torch, the only time it seems to get mention though is when it's warm, by the torch lovers Btw GFS/EPS go -10 to -15 departures give or take after Dec 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 47 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cvs2 is a torch for February like most winter forecast in this sub forum. We might just have a couple of weeks in January to get something Skill levels at that timeframe are exceptionally low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: yeah it may look or sound odd at first until you realize that the precip shield is only expanding as we get later in the day,also there's is a small tap of gulf and atlantic moisture starting to occur. just need to see how close this critter gets before the front blasts through with a squall line. Nam is showing this as all rain.... 850 temps -5 to -10 yet 2mt mid to upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Seasonal models aside, there is a very strong signal for a torch February and a much warmer than normal March as well. February being the real torch. Both months look to be +NAM unless there is some sort of reinforcement of the La Niña I'm not sure the extremely warm February will end up transpiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam is showing this as all rain.... 850 temps -5 to -10 yet 2mt mid to upper 30s yeah i highly doubt we get past 40 degrees today with low dp's it's more then possible for it to actually be all snow once the wet bulb temps are reached,esp away from the immed coastline. but this baby is still juicing up and the details are of now casting nature.. still it's atleast some positive news lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Cvs2 is a torch for February like most winter forecast in this sub forum. We might just have a couple of weeks in January to get something Cvs2 is a joke. It keeps flip flopping. Do you really believe what it shows for 2 months out? People are freaking out for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: yeah i highly doubt we get past 40 degrees today with low dp's it's more then possible for it to actually be all snow,esp away from the immed coastline. but this baby is juicing up so we shall see guys. I think we will have a better chance with the arctic squalls than with the storm for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 May as well start a thread for Saturday, seems inevitable something goes down at this point, although most likely inland again. The coast may do significantly better this time if the PARA GFS is correct. I think even if not the coast will see 1-2 inches based on most of the models right now because we have a deeper cold air mass this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam is showing this as all rain.... 850 temps -5 to -10 yet 2mt mid to upper 30s No it's not. NAM has no precip. You are looking at composite sim radars that are virga. NAM has 0.0" of precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: No it's not. NAM has no precip. You are looking at composite sim radars that are virga. NAM has 0.0" of precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: May as well start a thread for Saturday, seems inevitable something goes down at this point, although most likely inland again. The coast may do significantly better this time if the PARA GFS is correct. I think even if not the coast will see 1-2 inches based on most of the models right now because we have a deeper cold air mass this time. Agree Every model shows at least an inch for NYC before the changeover. Hopefully the low trends flatter and we get more WAA snows before the changeover . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, ag3 said: And just last run it had some precip. Flip flopping at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Skill levels at that timeframe are exceptionally low. Agree Don , I look at the Euro weeklies out to week 3 and even there its a crap shoot. If the prior day 15 ensembles are wrong so will week 3 . After that they r a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: May as well start a thread for Saturday, seems inevitable something goes down at this point, although most likely inland again. The coast may do significantly better this time if the PARA GFS is correct. I think even if not the coast will see 1-2 inches based on most of the models right now because we have a deeper cold air mass this time. Goose I have 2 to 3 city , 4 to 6 N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Latest NAM gets NYC down to 15 degrees Friday morning. This would be the coldest December reading of the 2010's so far. It would also be the first time since 2010 that NYC had a daily high temperature in the 20's during December. NYC December 2010's monthly minimums....2015...34...2014...24...2013...19...2012...28...2011...22...2010...19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 if you're looking ten days down the road tomorrow it will have a different ending...As Don said the skill level is low...The ao is rising to a pretty high number but is forecast to drop to negative late in the period...at least most of the members do...the nao which has been negative is forecast to rise late in the period...but some members stay negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Latest NAM gets NYC down to 15 degrees Friday morning. This would be the coldest December reading of the 2010's so far. It would also be the first time since 2010 that NYC had a daily high temperature in the 20's during December. NYC December 2010's monthly minimums....2015...34...2014...24...2013...19...2012...28...2011...22...2010...19 core of the brutal 850s misses the area by about 200 miles which would prevent a low below 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: core of the brutal 850s misses the area by about 200 miles which would prevent a low below 10. Yeah, the PV is very compact and is forecast to travel further NE through New England than just a few days ago. Those 500 mb heights over Maine would be among the lowest on record for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the PV is very compact and is forecast to travel further NE through New England than just a few days ago. Those 500 mb heights over Maine would be among the lowest on record for the month of December. Yeah, this is a pretty sharp but quick cold shot. How long can it stick around and keep Saturday's event frozen is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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