snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The GFS says I blow past last years total snowfall by Christmas this year...I won't believe it until after its been measured properly, we shall see. Yeah little over 6" needed here to surpass last years total. Craziness I tell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: FWIW the RGEM brings light snow into the area tomorrow night Looks like less then a inch for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: Looks like less then a inch for the area The maps have a few areas of northern NJ and Orange County getting around .12 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The maps have a few areas of northern NJ and Orange County getting around .12 liquid Yeah 1-2" for up here tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z euro splits the area for tomorrow night. Not much qpf for the metro and a coating at best north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 euro is even flatter then last night and weaker. 3-5 on the front end for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 mostly everyone gets a 3-4 on the 12z euro Saturday morning. We really thump then to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: euro is even flatter then last night and weaker. 3-5 on the front end for the area For Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: For Saturday? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Interesting.....ensembles are slowly backing off the idea of a total pattern reversal and now showing a transient "warmup" with more cold and storminess on the way. Do I even see signs of the Scandinavian Ridge trying to push the AO negative?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Interesting.....ensembles are slowly backing off the idea of a total pattern reversal and now showing a transient "warmup" with more cold and storminess on the way. Do I even see signs of the Scandinavian Ridge trying to push the AO negative?? Today's run of the 12z GFS was a lot better...snow Saturday and then one more storm threat around 12/20 before the SE ridge exerts more dominance. Although it's showing a GOA low in the long range, the feature is weaker and the pattern more dominated by a PAC ridge that brings some cold air down. Should be an interesting couple of weeks starting with Wednesday's arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Saturday morning and early afternoon is going to be very ugly. Unmodified, super dry arctic air in the teens and single digits at the surface getting overrun by very warm air, strong low-level southerly jet at the mid and upper levels with a powerful warm front. Whatever snow and sleet we have early that morning is going to go over to freezing rain/ice storm it's going to be very very nasty before temps finally warm into the 40's and we go to all rain Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looking forward to seeing that deep arctic sky. Brings a whole different feel and look to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, December temperatures near or below 10 degrees have become rare here since the 1980's. So it will be interesting to see how close NYC can get. NYC near or below 10 degree December lows since 1980(coldest of month) 1980...-1 1983...4 1987...8 1988...5 1989...6 1993...10 2004...11 12/16 top three coldest temperatures 7...1876...9...1917...9....1883 Something in the 10°-12° range seems reasonably likely. Hopefully, the maximum CAA will be timed just right so that NYC gets into the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro really is way north with the mood flakes tomorrow night compared to almost every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see if the temperature in NYC falls below 10°. The last time that happened in December was December 27, 1989 when the temperature fell to 8°. Of course, December 1989 was brutally cold (4 days with single-digit lows; 16 days with low temperatures below 20°; Mean low: 19.1°, Mean high: 32.6°, Mean temperature: 25.9°; and, one day with a high temperature of 18°). The rest of the winter was much warmer (1 single-digit low; 3 days with lows below 20°; Mean low: 33.2°; Mean high: 48.0°, Mean temperature: 40.6°; and lowest high temperature of 25°). I'm not sure that we'll see such a dramatic shift, but do believe the latter half of December will probably average milder than normal. When was the last winter for Central Park when the lowest temperature of the winter was in December? Edit: The winters of 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 both came close to having December as the seasonal lowest minimum temperature, but both occurred just after the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nam way to warm tomorrow night for snow. Snow maps have nothing for the area and north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 17 minutes ago, tmagan said: When was the last winter for Central Park when the lowest temperature of the winter was in December? Winter 2005-06. The coldest temperature was 14°, which occurred on December 14. Since 1980-81, the following winters have seen the coldest reading in December: 1980-81, 1983-84, 1988-89, 1989-90, 2000-01, and 2005-06. The 1988-89 low temperature of 5° occurred on December 12, 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see if the temperature in NYC falls below 10°. The last time that happened in December was December 27, 1989 when the temperature fell to 8°. Of course, December 1989 was brutally cold (4 days with single-digit lows; 16 days with low temperatures below 20°; Mean low: 19.1°, Mean high: 32.6°, Mean temperature: 25.9°; and, one day with a high temperature of 18°). The rest of the winter was much warmer (1 single-digit low; 3 days with lows below 20°; Mean low: 33.2°; Mean high: 48.0°, Mean temperature: 40.6°; and lowest high temperature of 25°). I'm not sure that we'll see such a dramatic shift, but do believe the latter half of December will probably average milder than normal. Yeah the pattern shift from Dec 89 to Jan 90 was extreme...Mean temp here in Dec was 24.6 and in Jan 39.8 degrees, The coldest and warmest respective months on this stations record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam way to warm tomorrow night for snow. Snow maps have nothing for the area and north of the city Thoughts on possible Saturday morning ice storm prospects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah the pattern shift from Dec 89 to Jan 90 was extreme...Mean temp here in Dec was 24.6 and in Jan 39.8 degrees, The coldest and warmest respective months on this stations record. February 2015 didn't beat it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thoughts on possible Saturday morning ice storm prospects? I dont like how the high is forecasted to move east now instead of north/east. That south east wind will warm us quicker. That artic air will be hard to move from the surface over inland areas. The preciep should get here quick so i hope we can take full advantage of the airmass in place. If that high was moving north east i would be more worried about ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: February 2015 didn't beat it? Yes February 2015 was colder...I meant that It was the coldest December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, doncat said: Yes February 2015 was colder...I meant that It was the coldest December. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I just took a glance at the CMC. I'm seeing cold until the end of the 10-day run. Of course, there is a warm-up this weekend. Euro is also cold through 9 days other than the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z gfs still has 2-4 saturday morning for the area. It continues to trend flatter with the storm out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like we follow the short duration snow cover pattern of last winter with 50's coming in for late Saturday night into Sunday. That warm front is very strong and means business. The models are showing the boundary layer skyrocketing very quickly once it passes. Tremendous WAA. Like you said, temps may hit the 50's Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Almost certainly accompanied by heavy fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 We do want a flatter wave for a snowier solution (granted not a lot of snow, but still)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: We do want a flatter wave for a snowier solution (granted not a lot of snow, but still)? Yeah we do. An amped storm would cut far to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like the big cold is in and out. Reminds of Last Feb, we were below zero and then raining 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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